Suffolk University just released its first look at Pennsylvania’s competitive Senate race, and it gives Democrat Katie McGinty a surprisingly large 43-36 lead on Republican Sen. Pat Toomey. The same poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday of this week, gives Hillary Clinton a 46-37 advantage over Donald Trump.
If McGinty unseats Toomey, Democrats will have a very good shot at retaking the Senate, so Team Blue will understandably be elated by this result. However, there’s good reason to be skeptical. Until now, only one other poll has shown McGinty ahead, a Marist survey from two weeks ago that had her leading by a much smaller 47-44 margin. Meanwhile, the Huffington Post Pollster average, which includes this new Suffolk poll, still has Toomey ahead 44-41. And Clinton’s 9-point lead on Trump is also quite a bit stronger than her own 43-40 average edge in the state, suggesting that Suffolk’s sample might be too blue. The numbers could also reflect a potentially temporary convention bounce, particularly since the Democrats’ gathering is taking place in Pennsylvania.
A few weeks ago, Quinnipiac brought Democrats some ugly numbers in the Keystone State, and we’ll say now what we said then: It’s always better to look at the average of the polls rather than let one eye-popping survey, whether it shows good or bad results, influence your views of a race. If McGinty and Clinton have really pulled far ahead of the GOP, other groups should show it soon; if they haven’t, well, Suffolk is just one poll.
Let's give Katie McGinty an indisputable lead. Please chip in $3 today.