Attorney General Kamala Harris has been the favorite against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in California’s all-Democratic general election since the start, and Sanchez’s path to victory has only become tougher over the last couple of months. Harris has always held a clear financial and name-recognition advantage over Sanchez, which is why we rated this contest as “Lean Harris” after June’ top-two primary. Since then, Harris’ position has only improved. Most notably, she received an endorsement from President Barack Obama, which, if history is any guide, will almost certainly help her with Democratic voters.
By contrast, Sanchez still needs to find a way to dominate with Republican voters while still holding on to enough Democrats to remain competitive in this overwhelmingly blue state. However, polls taken after the June primary show that a huge proportion of Republicans simply plan to skip the race. It also doesn’t help that Sanchez seems to be intent on alienating Democratic voters: After Obama backed Harris, Sanchez suggested the endorsement happened because the two are both African Americans.
This is the first time California will host a one-party general election for statewide office, and things are still unpredictable enough that we’re not willing to count Sanchez out quite yet. But Harris is in control, and Sanchez is going to have a tough time persuading Republicans who don’t plan to vote for either Democrat to vote for her while simultaneously not repelling too many Democrats in the process. As a result, we’re changing our rating of this one-party race from Lean Harris to Likely Harris.