There's a squeaker brewing in Nevada, where Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is vying to keep Harry Reid's Senate seat blue against Republican Rep. Joe Heck. The polls continue to show the two running neck-and-neck. In July, PPP had the race at one point, with Cortez Masto edging Heck 42-41. Now, a new poll from YouGov/CBS News has the race at three points, with Heck leading 38-35.
That's well within the ±4.6 percent margin of error on the survey. The big number of undecideds here—23 percent—is a key factor here, as is the top line on this poll. In this poll, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by just two point, 43-41. Here's how PPP's Tom Jensen analyzed the Clinton effect last month:
Pollster Tom Jensen's analysis notes that Cortez Masto's numbers have more room to grow, as voters who are currently undecided in the Senate race also supported President Obama by 24 points in 2012 and support Hillary Clinton over Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker by an average of 11 points. These voters are likely Democratic voters in the Senate race next year. Jensen also argues that Clinton's coattails in Nevada will benefit Cortez Masto significantly in 2016 and should Clinton's margins hold, "she's likely to bring Cortez Masto along with her."
CBS/YouGov didn't follow up with its big block of undecideds to see how they previously voted, so those numbers can't be compared poll-to-poll. But what can be concluded is that this tight race is very much within Cortez Masto's grasp.
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