As Trump’s campaign spirals into denial and attempts to delegitimize polls that (shockingly!) show that people actually don’t like him, his supporters are going to be falling into the same lines of denial when it turns out that Trump’s repeated promises of winning unwinnable states becomes reality.
If Donald Trump were to win the states he says he can, the solidly blue states and swing states, then his campaign seems to believe he’ll reach 500 electoral votes come Election Day. As much as I’ve wanted to believe this is just campaign spin, it’s sinking in that Trump sincerely and genuinely believes that he is going to reach a Reagan ‘84 or Nixon ‘72 landslide.
Here is a list of a dozen solidly blue states that Trump or his campaign has said that he can win in November:
1. Connecticut
“You know, a lot of these states are not supposed to be, like, Republican states … We’re going to make them Republican states. Connecticut is one of them.” – Phoenix, Arizona (June 18, 2016)
Headline: Why the Hell is Donald Trump Campaigning in Democratic Connecticut? (Huffington Post; August 11, 2016)
2. California
“I’m not even talking about landslides, but I think we can win the state of California and win it pretty substantially. Now, I’ve been told by all these geniuses, all these brilliant guys – they all say you can’t win the state of California. I think we can.” – San Jose, California (June 2, 2016)
Headline: Even Before Donald Trump, California Republicans Had a Huge Latino Problem (Vice; June 6, 2016)
3. Pennsylvania
“Hillary Clinton wants to put the coal mines out of business. They want to put the steel mills out of business. I think I’m going to win Pennsylvania easily. We have tremendous support there.” – Bismarck, North Dakota (May 26, 2016)
Headline: Trump's Pennsylvania campaign is missing in action (POLITICO; June 30, 2016)
4. New York
“You know, no Republican other than me will campaign in New York. They won’t campaign … They assume that all is lost. If somebody ever won New York, it toally, with the Electoral College, it totally changes the map. I think we will win New York. I really do.” – Evansville, Indiana (April 28, 2016)
Headline: What Donald Trump gets wrong about ‘winning’ New York or California in November (Washington Post; June 1, 2016)
5. Michigan
“They’re letting people go in Michigan. And by the way, I’m going to win Michigan, and normally a Republican would not go campaign there, and I’m going to win, just like I did in the primaries. I’m going to win Michigan by a lot.” – Billings, Montana (May 26, 2016)
Headline: Trump's Auto Bailout Inconsistency Could Leave Michigan Cold (NBC News; August 8, 2016)
6. Oregon
“We are going to work California hard. We are going to work the state of Washington hard. We may even work Oregon hard because we’ve been really been treated up there great … and I think we have a change. I think we have a good chance.” – Sacramento, California (June 1, 2016)
Headline: Donald J. Trump Is Visiting Portland. Major GOP Donors Are Running Away. (Willamette Week; August 9, 2016)
7. Illinois
“You’ve let go of thousand of people, and you’ve left, in this case, Indiana, in Chicago, all of the different places … We are going to win Illinois. We are going to win Indiana. We are going to win these states.” – Lawrence Township, New Jersey (May 19, 2016)
Headline: Top Illinois GOP donor: Hope Trump is 'humiliated' on Election Day (Chicago Tribune; August 11, 2016)
8. Massachusetts
“Why do they always say that a Republican can’t win Massachusetts? I think we can. You know why? I think that the Democrats are so sick and tired of watching our country lose that they’re going to vote for the Republican if this is the one.” – Tyngsborough, Massachusetts (October 16, 2015)
Headline: Donald Trump’s general election odds still look grim in Massachusetts (Boston.com; May 9, 2016)
9. Washington State
“They say you can’t win. I think we can win. I think we can win. So we are going after California. We are going after the state of Washington. We are going after places that no other Republican goes after.” – Redding, California (June 3, 2016)
Headline: Washington state schools seek to create safe spaces from Donald Trump (Washington Examiner; July 1, 2016)
10. New Jersey
“I love New Jersey. I am New Jersey. Like a second home. I have property there. I have a lot of employees there. And frankly, I think we’re going to do well.” – Interview with Sean Hannity (June 1, 2016)
Headline: Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning New Jersey Just Got Wacked Like a Soprano Hitjob (Mediaite; August 12, 2016)
11. Maine
“I will win states that no Republican would even run in.” – Interview with the Associated Press for a story about his campaign in Maine (May 17, 2016)
Headline: [Senator] Susan Collins of Maine Says She Will Not Vote for Donald Trump (New York Times; August 8, 2016)
12. Minnesota
John McLaughlin, a pollster for the Trump campaign, released a list of 17 states he thinks the campaign should focus on and could win. Minnesota was among them. (July 6, 2016)
Headline: Minnesota in the sights of Clinton campaign, but little attention so far from Trump (Star Tribune; July 3, 2016)
All of FiveThirtyEight’s projections are taken from their polls-only forecasts.