As far as I know, the posting this morning at 7:52 AM here (and if you follow that link after the next update it will be out of date) is the first time they have shown Clinton’s chances of winning the election reaching 90% to Trump’s 10%.
Of the state’s that gave Obama 332 electoral votes 2012, only the following are considered less than 90% likely for Clinton:
MN 87
OH 81
NV 76
FL 76
IA 62
They also make NC now 65, with the next closest GA at 42%
That is 263 electoral votes at 90% or better, 291 at 81% or better.
As of this posting
538:
Nowcast 84.4%
Polls Only 83.0%
Polls Plus 74.9
Princeton Election Consortium 97%
Huffington Post Pollster is back to a 48-40 lead (including Economist/You Gov from yesterday with 2% margin)
RCP 2-way poll average 47.7-41.7
A few comments.
So far there is no polling data that reflects what has happened the past two days. While there may be polls out today and possibly tomorrow, they will not FULLY reflect the impact of Clinton’s speech in Reno, nor the incredibly mishmash Trump has made on immigration, and what possible backlash — which could be further fueled depending upon what Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, etc. say now that Trump SEEMS to have flopped back.
What is interesting is the near unanimity in the punditry class that views Clinton’s speech positively, and how often people note that it uses Trump’s words and actions against him.
We are ten days from Labor Day.
If anything, we are likely to see a hardening of attitudes against Trump. That does NOT mean that people will necessarily vote for Clinton.
If it becomes obvious that she is moving in the direction of an electoral college win, or consistent polling margin in excess of 10%, possibly even hitting 15%, expect to see some movement towards Gary Johnson, perhaps enough to get him to the 15% in one of the considered national polls to qualify for the first debate on Sept. 26.
And at this point almost no one is talking about the Clinton Foundation.