The Sept. 13 GOP primary for New Hampshire’s swingy 1st Congressional District is almost here, and incumbent Frank Guinta’s fate is still very up in the air. A year ago, the FEC ruled that Guinta had illegally accepted a $355,000 campaign donation from his parents in 2010. Prominent New Hampshire Republicans like Sen. Kelly Ayotte publicly called for Guinta to resign, a call he completely disregarded when he decided to seek re-election.
Businessman Rich Ashooh, who narrowly lost to Guinta in the 2010 primary, stepped up to challenge the congressman, but surprisingly, Guinta’s intra-party detractors don’t seem to be rallying behind him. Even though the FEC fine wiped out much of Guinta’s warchest, Ashooh only outspent him $76,000 to $72,000 from July 1 to Aug. 24. Almost all of this district is located in the expensive Boston media market, so neither of those sums will buy too many ads. And while several top GOP operatives formed a super PAC to help Ashooh back in April, there doesn’t appear to have been any outside spending for either side over the last few months. Ayotte also has not endorsed Ashooh. Guinta still may not be in great shape, but Ashooh may just be too weak to take advantage of his problems.
Whoever emerges with the GOP nod next week will face ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in November. Shea-Porter had a modest $216,000 on-hand at the end of August; however, the Democrat spent an additional $200,000 on a reservation for fall TV time. Obama carried this seat 50-49.