The US is increasingly becoming a politically polarized nation. Democratic “blue” states tend bluer, while Republican states get “redder.” Democratic-leaning “purple” states get the bulk of national-level attention during presidential campaign years, while people in safely Democratic or Republican states might never see a campaign commercial for a national candidate.
This is a mistake for Democrats, since the bulk of competitive congressional districts lie within states which are are safe Democratic or Democratic-leaning. In most cases these districts are only weakly partisan, making them much easier for a challenger to win. The Democratic National Committee and the DCCC neglects congressional districts in their “own back yard” at their peril. The path to retaking the US House of Representatives, and keeping it, lies in winning congressional races in "Blue” and “Dark Purple” states.
Republican gerrymandering in Republican-leaning swing states, like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina means that there are very few pick-up opportunities in those states. But, in Democratic-leaning states, many Republican-controlled districts are much weaker in PVI, sometimes even with a Democratic lean, meaning that the Republican is probably “too conservative for his district.” Additionally, state parties in Democratic-leaning states are much stronger and better organized, making it easier to oust incumbents.
Furthermore, demographic changes since 2012, plus Trump’s potential drag on down-ballot races might further aid Democratic challengers, making even an R+5 district competitive this year. Certainly any Republican in a district of R+2 or less should be updating his resume.
In total, there are 63 House districts controlled by Republicans where the Cook PVI is R+5 or less. By contrast, there are just 8 Democrats in a similarly vulnerable position. Of the 63 Republican-controlled districts, 45 have a PVI of R+3 or less. These represent excellent pick-up opportunities — assuming a competitive candidate is in the race.
Of these districts, fully 58 are in Democratic-leaning states.
In the two months we have left, Democratic activists in “Safe” states must not only only work to elect Hillary, but also to work for competitive (or even semi-competitive) down-ballot races in our own states.
Talk up local candidates on social media (which is how most people get their news these days).
Tell family and friends about the importance of taking back the House. Hillary’s progressive ideas will never get traction as long as Tea Party nuts control it! Can you face another 2 years of constant obstructionism and endless partisan investigations?
Below is a list of districts with a Cook PVI of R+5 or less (listed as a negative number on the table) in "safe" Democratic states. This amounts to 33 districts. All of them have a PVI of R+5 (-5 on the table) or less, which might not be sufficient to protect an incumbent in a wave election year. Winning these districts alone will allow the Democrats to regain the house!
State
|
CD
|
PVI
|
Incumbent
|
State PVI
|
California
|
21st
|
2
|
R
|
9
|
California
|
10th
|
-1
|
R
|
9
|
California
|
25th
|
-3
|
R
|
9
|
California
|
49th
|
-4
|
R
|
9
|
California
|
39th
|
-5
|
R
|
9
|
Illinois
|
12th
|
0
|
R
|
8
|
Illinois
|
13th
|
0
|
R
|
8
|
Illinois
|
10th
|
8
|
R
|
8
|
Illinois
|
6th
|
-4
|
R
|
8
|
Illinois
|
16th
|
-4
|
R
|
8
|
Illinois
|
14th
|
-5
|
R
|
8
|
Maine
|
2nd
|
2
|
R
|
6
|
Michigan
|
6th
|
-1
|
R
|
4
|
Michigan
|
8th
|
-2
|
R
|
4
|
Michigan
|
7th
|
-3
|
R
|
4
|
Michigan
|
3rd
|
-4
|
R
|
4
|
Michigan
|
11th
|
-4
|
R
|
4
|
Michigan
|
1st
|
-5
|
R
|
4
|
Michigan
|
4th
|
-5
|
R
|
4
|
New Jersey
|
2nd
|
1
|
R
|
6
|
New Jersey
|
3rd
|
-1
|
R
|
6
|
New Jersey
|
5th
|
-4
|
R
|
6
|
New Mexico
|
2nd
|
-5
|
R
|
4
|
New York
|
21st
|
0
|
R
|
11
|
New York
|
19th
|
1
|
R
|
11
|
New York
|
24th
|
5
|
R
|
11
|
New York
|
2nd
|
-1
|
R
|
11
|
New York
|
1st
|
-2
|
R
|
11
|
New York
|
11th
|
-2
|
R
|
11
|
New York
|
22nd
|
-3
|
R
|
11
|
New York
|
23rd
|
-3
|
R
|
11
|
Washington
|
8th
|
-1
|
R
|
5
|
Washington
|
3rd
|
-2
|
R
|
5
|
Notice that Republican attempts to gerrymander Michigan to gain more House seats in a “Blue” state might backfire on them, since it leaves them defending a whole bunch of only weakly Republican-leaning districts.
Also note the 8 competitive races in New York, more than any other state. This is a state with an extremely Democratic bent (only Vermont and Hawaii are “bluer”), a very strong state party. It’s also Hillary Clinton’s home state and she remains fairly popular here. There is absolutely no excuse to not win all of these races. Doing so will get the Democrats more than a third of the way to taking the House.
The other districts on this list are all in states that are “blue and tending bluer.”
Here is the list of competitive districts in Democratic-leaning Swing States (D+0 or better). It represents 23 districts.
State
|
CD
|
PVI
|
Incumbent
|
State PVI
|
Colorado
|
6th
|
1
|
R
|
1
|
Colorado
|
3rd
|
-5
|
R
|
1
|
Iowa
|
3rd
|
0
|
R
|
1
|
Iowa
|
4th
|
-5
|
R
|
1
|
Minnesota
|
2nd
|
-2
|
R
|
2
|
Minnesota
|
3rd
|
-2
|
R
|
2
|
Nevada
|
3rd
|
0
|
R
|
2
|
Nevada
|
4th
|
4
|
R
|
2
|
Nevada
|
2nd
|
-5
|
R
|
2
|
New Hampshire
|
1st
|
-1
|
R
|
1
|
Pennsylvania
|
8th
|
-1
|
R
|
1
|
Pennsylvania
|
6th
|
-2
|
R
|
1
|
Pennsylvania
|
7th
|
-2
|
R
|
1
|
Pennsylvania
|
15th
|
-2
|
R
|
1
|
Pennsylvania
|
16th
|
-4
|
R
|
1
|
Virginia
|
2nd
|
-2
|
R
|
0
|
Virginia
|
10th
|
-2
|
R
|
0
|
Virginia
|
4th
|
-4
|
R
|
0
|
Virginia
|
5th
|
-5
|
R
|
0
|
Wisconsin
|
7th
|
-2
|
R
|
2
|
Wisconsin
|
8th
|
-2
|
R
|
2
|
Wisconsin
|
1st
|
-3
|
R
|
2
|
Wisconsin
|
6th
|
-5
|
R
|
2
|
It is possible that Republican gerrymander attempts in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin might backfire, since Republicans in both states must defend numerous weakly Republican-leaning districts. Virginia wasn’t gerrymandered, but even so, there are several potential wins for Democrats there.
This is a list of competitive seats in Republican-leaning or Safe Republican states. It amounts to 9 seats.
State
|
CD
|
PVI
|
Incumbent
|
State PVI
|
Arizona
|
2nd
|
-3
|
R
|
-7
|
Florida
|
13th
|
-1
|
R
|
-2
|
Florida
|
26th
|
-1
|
R
|
-2
|
Florida
|
27th
|
-2
|
R
|
-2
|
Florida
|
7th
|
-4
|
R
|
-2
|
Florida
|
25th
|
-5
|
R
|
-2
|
Ohio
|
10th
|
-3
|
R
|
-1
|
Ohio
|
14th
|
-4
|
R
|
-1
|
Texas
|
23rd
|
-3
|
R
|
-10
|
Florida Republican gerrymandering attempts might come to haunt them.
By comparison, this is a list of competitive Democratic-held House seats in districts with a R+1 or worse PVI. They are mostly in Safe Democratic or swing states. Notice that there are just 8 districts!
State
|
CD
|
PVI
|
Incumbent
|
State PVI
|
Arizona
|
1st
|
-4
|
D
|
-7
|
Arizona
|
9th
|
-1
|
D
|
-7
|
California
|
36th
|
-1
|
D
|
9
|
Florida
|
18th
|
-3
|
D
|
-2
|
Florida
|
2nd
|
-6
|
D
|
-2
|
Minnesota
|
1st
|
-1
|
D
|
2
|
Minnesota
|
7th
|
-6
|
D
|
2
|
Nebraska
|
2nd
|
-4
|
D
|
-12
|