We’re going to have Republican Rep. Frank Guinta to kick around for at least a little while longer. On Tuesday, Guinta defeated businessman Rich Ashooh 46-45, or by 649 votes, to win renomination in New Hampshire’s swingy 1st Congressional District. Guinta will face Democratic ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in November for the fourth straight time. Guinta unseated Shea-Porter during the 2010 GOP wave, only for Shea-Porter to return the favor two years later. Guinta again beat Shea-Porter in 2014.
A year ago, it seemed tough to believe that Guinta would win renomination. In May of 2015, the FEC ruled that Guinta had illegally accepted a $355,000 campaign donation from his parents in 2010 during his first campaign for Congress. Prominent New Hampshire Republicans like Sen. Kelly Ayotte publicly demanded that Guinta resign, and Joseph McQuaid, the publisher of the influential conservative paper the Union Leader, memorably published an editorial that simply read, “Frank Guinta is a damned liar.” However, Rep. Damned Liar didn’t take the hint and not only did he refuse to resign, he decided to seek another term.
But Guinta’s war chest took a huge hit after he paid a fine to the FEC and repaid his parents, and donors were reluctant to help him replenish it. Ashooh, who narrowly lost the 2010 primary to Guinta, entered the race in April, and Guinta’s other notable primary foes ended up dropping out. But while Guinta’s intra-party detractors never publicly reconciled with Guinta, they did very little to help Ashooh unseat him. While Ayotte said as recently as primary day that she stood by her call for Guinta to resign, she never endorsed Ashooh. Ashooh also didn’t raise much money, and he barely outspent the weakened Guinta. And while several top GOP operatives formed a super PAC to help Ashooh back in April, it spent barely a pittance on his behalf.
Guinta certainly had a close shave on Tuesday. In fact, according to the University of Minnesota’s Smart Politics blog, no New Hampshire House incumbent has ever received a lower percentage of the vote than Guinta. But Ashooh just wasn’t quite strong enough to deliver the finishing blow.
Let's do what Republicans wouldn't do and retire Frank Guinta. Please chip in $3 to Carol Shea-Porter today.
Guinta has very little time to rest before he needs to focus on Shea-Porter. At the end of August, Shea-Porter held a small $216,000 to $204,000 cash-on-hand edge over Guinta. However, Shea-Porter’s campaign spent an additional $200,000 on a fall TV time, so she’s in a stronger financial position than she looks. But outside groups from both parties are likely to spend heavily in this 50-49 Obama seat.
Donald Trump’s impact on this race is also unknown. The HuffPost Pollster average currently gives Hillary Clinton a 42-37 lead in the state, which is a similar margin as Obama’s 2012 52-46 win in the Granite State. However, Shea-Porter ran ahead of the Democratic ticket that year and beat Guinta 50-46, and her 52-48 loss in 2014 wasn’t horrible given how bad things were for Democrats nationwide. Guinta’s campaign finance issues weren’t front-page news until last year, so it’s very possible that voters were already reluctant to keep Guinta around before this.
Wealthy independent Shawn O’Connor is also a wild card. O’Conner loaned his campaign $500,000 while he was running for the Democratic nod. O’Connor has since taken the money back, and he only had $74,000 in the bank at the end of June. But in a seat this evenly divided, O’Connor doesn’t need to take many left-leaning votes to cause Team Blue problems. Guinta’s not in a great position, but this is an unpredictable race, and Daily Kos Elections currently rates it as a Tossup.