In a late and unexpected move, the DCCC has added attorney C.J. Baricevic to its Emerging Races program, designed to highlight candidates it thinks could develop into top-tier contenders. Democrats had held Illinois' 12th Congressional District, which Barack Obama won by a slim 50-48 margin, until the 2014 GOP wave, when Republican Mike Bost unseated freshman Rep. Bill Enyart. But it hadn't felt like promising turf this cycle, particularly because Democratic recruiters weren't able to land their first-choice options.
And this district in particular, located adjacent to St. Louis in the southwestern corner of the state, still doesn't seem ripe, since it's predominantly white and its median income and educational attainment levels are both well below the national averages. That makes it the sort of territory where Donald Trump has thrived.
Still, it's possible Democrats have seen polling that shows them with an opportunity here, though a Baricevic internal from June gave Bost a daunting 50-37 lead. And Bost has some negatives. In particular, he was notorious for his frequent rage-filled outbursts on the floor of the state legislature. Thanks to the strong winds at his back, Bost didn't pay much of a price when Democrats tried to make an issue of his temperament two years ago, but in a more neutral political climate, his character could become an issue.
But that'll only happen if Democrats have the resources to expose voters to Bost's furious explosions, and right now, Bost has a wide financial advantage: As of June 30, the incumbent had $1 million in the bank, versus $417,000 for his challenger. What's more, there are some questions about how Baricevic acquired some of his war chest. After he put together a surprisingly strongly first-quarter fundraising haul, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that some $246,000 he'd raised to date had come from attorneys and law firm employees with cases pending in the local judicial circuit where Baricevic's father is chief judge.
That alone might not have been all that noteworthy—there are over two dozen judges on that circuit, and you expect an attorney like Baricevic to know other lawyers—but one other detail stood out. At the law firm that gave the most to Baricevic, three secretaries, two legal assistants, and a receptionist all donated the legal maximum of $2,700 to his campaign on the same day in March. While there were no allegations of wrongdoing, that's an unusual pattern of contributions from people who are not higher earners, and it's illegal for one person to give money to another with the intent that those funds be donated to a candidate.
But whatever questions were raised by this activity, ultimately the DCCC must have decided it was comfortable enough with the answers. Still, Baricevic will need outside help to put this seat in play, which Daily Kos Elections currently rates as Likely Republican.