Democrats must like what they’re seeing in the Show Me State. On Tuesday, the DSCC reserved $1.5 million to help Jason Kander against Republican Sen. Roy Blunt, making this the first major ad buy from an outside Democratic group. And on Friday, Politico reported that the DSCC booked an additional $2 million in ad time for this contest. They aren’t the only groups aiding Kander here: In the last week, End Citizens United launched a $770,000 ad campaign, while VoteVets dropped $400,000. National Democrats seem more sanguine about Missouri than other red-state contests like Arizona, and their new financial investment is proof of that sentiment.
Republicans, sensing danger, have also started spending serious money here. The Senate Leadership Fund reserved $2.5 million all the way back in June, though it’s only now begun to air ads. The NRA jumped in more recently and also began advertising against Kander in the last few weeks. The current HuffPost Pollster polling average finds Kander trailing Blunt by 46-40, but Kander has lower name recognition than the incumbent, so he still could have some room to grow.
When Blunt started this race, he had a lot of advantages going for him. He was a relatively inoffensive incumbent seeking re-election in a fairly conservative state. Mitt Romney carried Missouri 54-44, and Team Red is likely to keep these 10 electoral votes in their column. Indeed, polling average gives Donald Trump a 44-39 lead in Missouri, while Hillary Clinton and her allies haven’t made the state a priority. The best news for Blunt is that it’s very rare for a Senate incumbent to lose re-election while his or her party’s presidential nominee is carrying their state, which gives him some room for error.
Still, there are signs that this race could be different. Although Blunt hasn’t done much to alienate conservative voters, he’s also relatively anonymous, with few major accomplishments that could endear him to Missourians and help him weather attacks. Furthermore, he faces a stiff challenge from Kander, a young Afghanistan veteran who has demonstrated his campaign chops with competitive fundraising and powerful ads, especially this must-see spot in favor of background checks where he assembles a rifle while blindfolded.
As an incumbent in a fairly red state, Blunt still has the edge, but it’s no longer quite as difficult to see him losing. Consequently, we’re changing our race rating from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.