The latest news is not good for Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy's Senate hopes. According to a Friday afternoon report in Politico, the DSCC has now cancelled its advertising for all but the last three weeks of the race, reducing a planned $10 million buy to $6 million. This also means that the committee's claim that it was merely shifting funds from an earlier cancellation closer to Election Day is no longer operative.
The same piece adds that some unspecified "Democrats" say they "still feel that Florida is winnable" though there's "some dissension" about just "how winnable" the race really is. The believers are relying on the Senate Majority PAC, which still has around $10 million reserved, to carry the team. That won't be easy, though, given how expensive Florida is—which Politico cites as a key reason why the DSCC is making new investments in North Carolina and Missouri, both much cheaper places to advertise in.
Republicans have also cut back their Sunshine State spending, albeit not as much. On Wednesday, the Koch brothers' Freedom Partners announced that it would drop a $500,000 reservation it had made for the week of Sept. 28, the last week it had any bookings for. However, as Politico notes, another GOP group, the Senate Leadership Fund, still has $11 million reserved, though of course that sum could be reduced as well if Republican confidence grows.
Murphy's camp attempted to stanch the bleeding by releasing an internal poll from Global Strategy Group on Friday, before the latest cancellations became public. But while the survey shows the race close, it still finds Murphy trailing GOP Sen. Marco Rubio 47-45—and in theory, Murphy's team is offering the most optimistic read there is. What's more, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 in this poll, showing that Rubio is still running several points ahead of the top of the ticket. Those crossover votes are crucial, and really hurting Murphy.
In fact, the overall picture is considerably worse, as Rubio has an average 51-44 lead in all the polls, per Huffington Post Pollster. Murphy, meanwhile, hasn't led in a poll since June, aside from a mid-August survey for SMP that gave him just a 45-44 edge. And with outside resources drying up, it'll be much harder for Murphy to overtake the incumbent, especially with the devastating new ads Republicans are running that attack him over his résumé.
We've long admired Murphy for having the guts to jump into this race before Rubio made his presidential bid, just as he showed courage in taking on—and defeating—lunatic Rep. Allen West back in his first race in 2012, even after redistricting made the task considerably harder. Murphy also faced down an ugly primary fight with the rage-filled Alan Grayson with aplomb. But he drew some bad luck when Rubio went back on his word and decided to seek re-election, and now, Rubio's advantages over the lackluster GOP field that had sought to succeed him—namely, his ability to win crossover voters—have become apparent.
It brings us no pleasure to do this, but in light of the new obstacles Murphy faces, we're moving this race from Tossup to Lean Republican. This is not to say we think this race is a done deal. Reservations can be cancelled, but they can also be booked anew. Much remains unwritten. If, for instance, Clinton can once again open up a lead on Trump like the one she enjoyed earlier this summer, then even Rubio's success at getting voters to split their tickets might not be enough, and Democrats might find themselves rushing back into Florida. As always, we will keep an open mind and will adjust our rating again should it prove necessary, but for now, the advantage lies with Republicans.