Monmouth takes their first look at New Hampshire’s statewide races. In the Senate contest, Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte posts a 47-45 edge over Democrat Maggie Hassan. The HuffPost Pollster average has the two deadlocked 44-44, so this poll isn’t a massive shock. However, Hillary Clinton leads 47-38 in the Granite State, indicating that Ayotte is running far ahead of Donald Trump. Other polls have found a gap in Ayotte’s favor, but it hasn’t usually been this large. (Clinton has an average lead of 42-37.)
Monmouth also gives us our first look at the gubernatorial race between Democrat Colin Van Ostern and Republican Chris Sununu since they won their nominations last week, and Sununu starts with a 49-43 lead. This is the first poll we’ve seen pitting the two executive councilors since January, so we really don’t have any other data to fall back on. Monmouth finds that a significant number of voters don’t have an opinion of either candidate. Sununu posts a 36-22 favorable rating, while Van Ostern is pretty anonymous at 28-6.
It’s possible that Sununu, who is the son of former Gov. John Sununu and the brother of an ex-U.S. senator, is leading due to his family’s name recognition, but again, we don’t have any other information here. The gubernatorial contest is going to draw far less money and voter interest than the presidential or Senate races, so if Sununu is leading because of his last name, he may be able to coast to the finish line.
However, Democrats are trying to make sure that this contest doesn’t slip too far below the radar. The New Hampshire Democratic Party reserved $2.1 million in ad time back in May (there’s a good chance that a significant amount of the money came from the Democratic Governors Association), and they’re now up with their first ad. The spot features a clip of Van Ostern talking about the importance of a college education, while the narrator talks about his career in business and education, while noting that he went to college on student loans. The Republican Governors Association also reserved $3 million months ago, though they haven’t aired any ads yet.
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