You can see it here
Pickups:
WI 92.1-7.9
IL 77.3-22.7
IN 73.0-27.1
PA 56.3-43.7
NH 55.4-44.6
Loss:
NV 44.5-55.5
Other competitive states
MO 36.3-63.7
NC 33.2-66.8
FL 27.5-72.5
NOTE — since the net pick-up is only 4 seats, that presumes a Democratic VP to break the tie
Remember, this is Polls Plus, meaning it is factoring in things like demographics, party organization and whatever else Nate and crew mix in
Based on some of the more recent polling, and given the expectation that Nate’s current projections for the Presidential are imho probably too low, I could see both MO and NC flipping, and still possibly holding NV.