While America looks likely to elect Hillary Clinton as its first woman president, Democratic women are also positioned to make big gains in 2016’s races for the Senate and House. Women currently make up just one-fifth of Congress, and there are big disparities by party. Fourteen of the 46 senators in the Democratic caucus are women, or roughly 30 percent. That’s not great by any means, but by contrast, just six of 54 Republicans are women—a paltry 11 percent. The House is even starker: 62 of 186 Democrats are women, or 33 percent, while just 22 of the 246 Republicans are women, amounting to only 9 percent of the total.
Fortunately, the number of Democratic women in Congress could go up considerably in 2016, as you can see on the map at the top of this post. According to Daily Kos Elections’ race ratings, Democrats could add six women to the Senate if they won every competitive race. While Democrats may not run the table since some of these contests are longer shots, there’s at least an even chance that four new women senators will join the Democratic caucus next year.
Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth is currently favored to beat Republican Sen. Mark Kirk in Illinois, and three more races with Democratic women are rated as Tossups. Former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto is seeking to replace retiring Minority Leader Harry Reid; New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan is running against Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte; and former Pennsylvania state cabinet official Katie McGinty is facing off against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey. However, even if all four win, retiring Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski will likely be replaced by a man (and fellow Democrat), Rep. Chris Van Hollen, so it would mean a net gain of three seats for Democratic women.
Another three races favor Republicans incumbents, but are somewhat competitive for the Democratic women challenging them. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick squares off against Sen. John McCain in Arizona; former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge is challenging Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley in Iowa; and former state Rep. Deborah Ross is running against Republican Sen. Richard Burr in North Carolina. All told, Senate Democrats are poised to add more women and possibly surpass their all-time high-water mark of 16, which they reached after the 2012 elections. But we’re still a long, long way from seeing equal representation of men and women.
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The number of Democratic women in the House could also increase from the current 62, which is a record. The map above shows every district drawn to the exactly same size to give you a general idea of the overall proportion of Democratic women in the House. All those gray seats are occupied by men or Republicans, so you can readily see how off the balance is from where it should be. But if women Democrats win all races we’ve rated as Tossup or more favorable to their party, then they could increase their ranks by three. And if Trump causes downballot Republicans to suffer greatly, a further 12 races that currently favor Team Red might swing toward the Democratic women running there.
America still has a long way to go toward electing more women in our national legislature. While Democratic women could gain seats in 2016, the current proportion of women in Congress ranks well below that of our peer nations in Western Europe, Canada, and Australia. Women are a slight majority of the electorate, yet they still face significant difficulties in many aspects of life on account of their gender. Social science research shows that women legislators are more likely to look out for the interests of their fellow women and are simply more effective at getting things done than men.
It’s high time we start working toward greater gender parity in Congress, and 2016 could be a step in the right direction.