This morning the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University, released a poll of Virginia voters.
Links story on poll PDF of poll results
From the story:
The poll was conducted Sept. 15-23 and surveyed 1,003 likely Virginia voters.
The results show Clinton leading Trump 48-38 percent, in a two-way race. In a full ballot test, Clinton remained in the lead over Trump, but by a smaller margin of only 39-33 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson picked up 15 percent of the vote while Green candidate Jill Stein and Independent candidate Evan McMullin picked up 3 percent each.
The poll found Clinton to be preferred by female voters by a 28-point margin, 57-29 percent, while male voters preferred Trump by a 12-percent margin, 49-37 percent.
Clinton also led the way among voters in non-military households, 50-36 percent. However, Trump was preferred over Clinton in military households, 46-41 percent.
Also worth noting are figures on whether Trump is racist — 53% say yes
by groups so do 65% of women, 71% of Millennials, and 84% of Blacks.
Margin of error at 95% confidence level is +/- 3.9%
Worth noting — poll splits Commonwealth into four regions — here are results by region with Clinton 1st:
Nova 52-30
Richmond 54-36
HR 47-40
SW 36-52
By Race
White 38-48
Black 85-06
Several quick observations
You CANNOT lose Nova by more than 20 points and win the state. There are simply too many votes there. That Trump loses all regions EXCEPT SW is also an indication of his problem.
While I don’t necessarily consider this a super-accurate poll of Virginia, it tends to be accurate enough to confirm the Clinton campaign’s decision to pull advertising from Virginia. They have NOT, however, rolled back field related operations — there has been a ton of voter registration going on, and voter-id and related.
I remain convinced the VA is off the table for Trump. Dems will pick up at least one House seat — that’s a given — with a real chance of picking up as many as 3 for a 6-5 majority.