Early this week, the forecasters used by the New York Times’ Upshot had some gloomy predictions about the odds of Democratic control of the U.S. Senate after the 2016 elections, but things have started to perk up a little. The New York Times’ itself (in contrast to the presidential forecasts) is currently the most pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances.
The New York Times collects U.S. Senate race predictions from four data modelers (the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight, DailyKos, and Princeton Election Consortium), three knowledgeable experts (the Cook Political Report, the Rothtenberg & Gonzales Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball), and the PredictWise betting markets. FiveThirtyEight only started last Wednesday so this is the first week where we have a full week of their data. I scoop that up everyone’s data every day, and once a week I write this diary about Aggregating the Senate Aggregators so that we can easily see what their consensus opinion is.
It wasn’t good news earlier in the week, but it’s gotten a bit better.
The Big Picture
Here’s where we get to see the doom and gloom. In last week’s report, I shared that the New York Times’ forecast had the Republicans retaining control of the Senate, but this was offset by the other forecasters who were still pretty bullish on the Democrats’ chances. This week, the New York Times’ continued to downgrade the Democrats’ chances, and they were joined for two days by DailyKos and one day by FiveThirtyEight. You can see from the bold yellow line, which is the average for all of the forecasters, that on Monday and Tuesday the consensus gave the Democrats less than a 50% chance of winning control.
But that bounced up again today. While the New York Times still gives the Democrats only a dismal 39% chance of taking control, everyone else puts it in the 56% to 57% range, far higher than earlier in the week or even last week. They average out today at 53%.
States Up for Election
Democrats are only defending 10 of the 34 seats up for election this cycle, and only one of them, that of retiring Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, is at any risk of flipping to the Republicans. Republicans hold the other 24 seats, many seized in vulnerable blue states in the Republican wave of 2010. (This is why we have to vote in off-year elections, people!)
I know I do this chart every week but it’s help for people joining us for the first time.
2016 U.S. SENATE ELECTIONS
U.S. Senate |
Not Up This Year |
Up For Election |
Probably Safe |
In Play |
Republican Caucus |
30 |
24 |
12 |
12 |
Democratic Caucus * |
36 |
10 |
9 |
1 |
Total |
66 |
34 |
21 |
13 |
* The Democratic Caucus includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats, Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont. As there’s no reason to believe both won’t continue to caucus with the Democrats, I will continue to lump them in with the “Democratic Caucus” for shorthand.
Republican Seats Probably Safe: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah
Republican Seats in Play: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
Democratic Seats With Only Democratic Candidates: California
Democratic Seats Probably Safe: Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington
Democratic Seats in Play: Nevada
Forecaster Predictions in the Number of Senate Seats
Here’s the forecasters’ consensus opinions on Senate control, and how that’s changed over time.
Let’s look at just the races up for election this cycle to get a closer look at what’s happening.
Let’s look at the actual numbers to see where there was movement this week.
2016 Senate Race Prediction Forecasts This Last Week
Senate Race |
9/22 |
9/23 |
9/24 |
9/25 |
9/26 |
9/27 |
9/28 |
Solid Democratic |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
Likely Democratic |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Lean Democratic |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
Tossup — Dem |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Pure Tossup |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
Tossup — Rep |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
Lean Republican |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
Likely Republican |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Solid Republican |
13 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
Just looking at the sheer numbers, it doesn’t look as scary as the forecasters make it sound. One Republican moved from Likely Republican to Solid Republic. But the Democrats also had someone bouncing up several times from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic, and bouncing back and forth between Pure Tossup and Tossup — Dem. Let’s roll up the figures to see how they total.
2016 SENATE RACE PREDICTION FORECASTS THIS LAST WEEK
Senate Race |
9/22 |
9/23 |
9/24 |
9/25 |
9/26 |
9/27 |
9/28 |
Democratic |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
Tossup — Dem |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Pure Tossup |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
Tossup — Rep |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
Republican |
19 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
Basically, the Democrats held onto their numbers while the Republicans lost one to the Tossups. And with it this close, it really makes a difference.
FORECAST FOR THE U.S. SENATE AFTER THE 2016 ELECTIONS
U.S. Senate |
9/22 |
9/23 |
9/24 |
9/25 |
9/26 |
9/27 |
9/28 |
Democratic Caucus |
47 |
47 |
47 |
47 |
47 |
47 |
47 |
Tossup — Dem |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Pure Tossup |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
Tossup — Rep |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
Republican Caucus |
50 |
49 |
50 |
49 |
50 |
49 |
49 |
Republicans are bouncing between 49 to 50 seats. I wish it were a lot lower, but Democratic control is in reach. If the Democrats win all of the tossups, they take control. If they hold the Republicans to 50 seats and Hillary Clinton is elected President, then Tim Kaine as the new Vice President casts the tie-breaking vote for Senate organizational control, giving it to the Democrats. So the Republicans will have to win a few of those tossups to retain control.
Senate Seats in Play
Five Senate races had movement this week: Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
U.S. SENATE RACES WITH MOVEMENT THIS WEEK
Race |
9/22 |
9/23 |
9/24 |
9/25 |
9/26 |
9/27 |
9/28 |
LA |
Likely R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
NH |
TU — R |
TU — R |
TU — R |
TU — R |
TU — R |
TU — R |
TU — R |
NC |
Lean R |
TU — R |
Lean R |
TU — R |
Lean R |
TU — R |
TU — R |
PA |
TU — D |
TU — D |
TU — D |
TU |
TU |
TU |
TU — D |
WI |
Lean D |
Likely D |
Likely D |
Lean D |
Lean D |
Lean D |
Likely D |
Two of these races were more about consolidating their party’s hold. Louisiana moved from Likely Republican to Solid Republican and stayed there. Wisconsin bounced between Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic. It’s been Lean Democratic most of this cycle, but the data modelers have upgraded it from a low to mid-80% chance to an 88% for the last six days.
New Hampshire sagged from Pure Tossup to Tossup — Republican on Thursday and stayed there all week. Pennsylvania has bounced between Pure Tossup and Tossup — Democratic, settling on the latter at the end of the week. And North Carolina might end up being an upset, and has moved from the Republican column to Tossup territory.
CURRENT FORECASTS FOR U.S. SENATE RACES TO WATCH
Race |
All
Pundits
|
Data
Modelers
|
Modelers’
Probability
For Dems
|
Impact |
Wisconsin |
Lean Dem |
Likely Dem |
88% |
Flip to Dem |
Indiana |
Lean Dem |
Lean Dem |
81% |
Flip to Dem |
Illinois |
Lean Dem |
Lean Dem |
77% |
Flip to Dem |
Pennsylvania |
Tossup |
Tossup — Dem |
55% |
Flip to Dem |
New Hampshire |
Tossup |
Tossup — Rep |
45% |
Hold Rep |
North Carolina |
Tossup |
Tossup — Rep |
42% |
Hold Rep |
Nevada |
Tossup |
Lean Rep |
33% |
Flip to Rep |
Missouri |
Lean Rep |
Lean Rep |
26% |
Hold Rep |
Florida |
Lean Rep |
Lean Rep |
16% |
Hold Rep |
Louisiana |
Solid Rep |
Likely Rep |
7% |
Hold Rep |
Ohio |
Likely Rep |
Solid Rep |
5% |
Hold Rep |
Arizona
Iowa
|
Likely Rep
Solid Rep
|
Solid Rep
Solid Rep
|
4%
3%
|
Hold Rep
Hold Rep
|
(I missed up in counting rows on my table and don’t know how to add a row, and was too impatient to redo it, so Arizona and Iowa are squished together.)
Democrats need a minimum net gain of 4, assuming Tim Kaine becomes Vice President, to take control. The most likely prospects are Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. But if Nevada flips to the Republicans, they’ll have to pick up one more somewhere else — most likely New Hampshire or North Carolina.
Here we see how the forecasts have been trending:
Let’s look at the four closest ones to make it a little easier.
Nevada’s been a bit of a disappointment. Latinx voters have always been a challenge for pollsters to reach there, and Democrats often outperform expectations as a result, but that seems like a big gap to make up. But the others are all trending in the Democrats’ favor and North Carolina in particular has suddenly spiked up and could be a big opportunity here for us.
For those new to this column, last week I concluded with a few words about why Senate control will be so important, especially with regards to judicial confirmations. If you have friends and allies in any of these states, please make sure they’re registered to vote and turn out for down-ballot Democrats in November. Even if they vote third party for their city council, the U.S. Senate is not the race to do that. And if you have any extra time or money, maybe this will help you decide where to put your efforts.