So the headline for this diary pretty much tells the whole story.
Almost.
It get’s better when we look at the details.
Trump must take the following: Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada, AND at least one of these: Colorado, New Hampshire, Michigan or Pennsylvania. (* this is a corrected version, with credit to lastman for catching my error).
He gets none.
In fact, he is at least 3 points behind (maybe 4) in the state he’s closest— Florida— and methinks his Cuba venture, and slut shaming Alicia Machado, after fat shaming her and denigrating her Latina heritage, isn’t going to help there.
But there’s more!
As Nate Silver so helpfully informs:
Senate Update: Races For The Senate And White House Are Moving In Near Lockstep
Democrats are still slightly favored to take control of the Senate after November’s elections. They need to gain a net of four seats if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, or a net of five seats if she doesn’t. And the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast gives them a 56 percent chance of doing so, while the polls-only model has them with a 54 percent chance of winning a majority.
Polls continue to show a tight race in states such as New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, three of the four most important seats in determining who wins control.
And the trend for HRC is definitely up. Remember— ticket splitting is the GOP’s best hope to keep the Senate and the House, but ticket splitting is increasingly rare:
However, districts’ willingness to split their tickets – choose one party’s presidential nominee and the other party’s candidate for representative – has been on a steep decline for more than two decades. In 2012, only 26 House districts out of 435 (6%) split their votes, according to our analysis of district-level election results. Of these, 17 voted to re-elect President Obama but sent a GOP representative to Capitol Hill; nine opted for Mitt Romney and also a Democratic representative. (On an individual voter level, a Pew Research Center analysis in 2014 estimated that about eight-in-ten likely voters in areas with multiple major contests would vote a straight-party ticket that fall. Split-ticket voting also has declined at the state level.)
All the states where we see HRC ahead, and especially HRC and the Dem. gubernatorial candidate, those are states where can expect to see Senate and House pick-ups.
The pundits who wrote obituaries for the Dems.’ Senate and House prospects two weeks ago may be doing some hedging and back-peddling over the next two weeks. Congress— both houses— is still ours to take.