Hurricane Matthew underwent rapid intensification today and is currently (as of 6PM Eastern) a Category 4 hurricane—and still strengthening.
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016
...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwestern coast
of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 71.6 West. Matthew is moving
toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. A turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by
a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula this
tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be
near Jamaica on Sunday.
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is
possible tonight, and some fluctuations in intensity are possible
Saturday and Sunday. Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
aircraft is 949 mb (28.03 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in Colombia through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.
Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
Matthew is passing close enough to South America that it can be seen on Colombian and Venezuelan radars.
The concern here is when and where Matthew will turn north. As forecast, it’s already slowed down. Every hour it continues west and west-southwest increases the likelihood Jamaica will suffer a devastating blow, probably the worst hurricane to strike the island since Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.
I personally think as of now, Matthew will strike Jamaica around Kingston on Monday. One ill-timed eyewall replacement cycle will determine whether this is a Category 3 or 4 when it strikes, or a Category 5 when it strikes.
Jamaicans have a sense of humor about this thing, as seen here.
Most modeling suggests Matthew will move over eastern Jamaica (or past just barely to the east) and then over eastern Cuba. When it gets into the Bahamas is where things get extremely uncertain. It all depends on features such as this:
This is one of the features that will either kick Matthew off to the east, thus sparing the East Coast, along with the upper low that is sitting over Indiana and Kentucky right now, currently bringing flooding rains to Delaware, North Carolina, and elsewhere, or suck it inland.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1141 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016
VALID 12Z MON OCT 03 2016 - 12Z FRI OCT 07 2016
...OVERVIEW...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS NEXT WEEK. A LINGERING COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST STATES, AND THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE MATTHEW TO BE MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS LATE TUESDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY
OFF THE EAST COAST AFTER THAT. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, WHICH INFLUENCES THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
HURRICANE MATTHEW. MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO A SHORTWAVE
INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF DAY 3 /00Z
MONDAY HAS DECREASED, WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MORE AMPLIFIED GFS AND
LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF MOVING TOWARD A MIDDLE GROUND WITH THEIR MOST
RECENT RUNS. THUS, THE RESPECTED FORECAST TRACKS FOR HURRICANE
MATTHEW HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD EACH OTHER AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN WITH THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINING SLOWER/FARTHER
EAST RELATIVE TO THE 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE 06Z
GFS, ALTHOUGH A BIT SLOWER. FARTHER NORTH, GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LOW INITIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ON DAY 3, WHICH MOVES SOMEWHAT SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY DAY 5. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURES WEAKENS BY DAY 7, WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPING THE LOW STRONGER RELATIVE TO THE GFS AND CMC. A BLEND OF
THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z
ECMWF ENS MEAN WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR FOR THE WPC FORECAST, WITH
MORE WEIGHTING ON THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS EARLY ON (AND MORE
WEIGHT ON THE DETERMINISTIC 06Z GFS IN THE VICINITY OF HURRICANE
MATTHEW).
Matthew may linger in or east of the Bahamas for many days. We may be going into the long weekend next week, still wondering if Matthew is going out to sea, or coming inland.
All of this depends on when Matthew turns north. Here’s what I think. If it turns north and passes east of Jamaica, it’s more likely to go out to sea after it blasts the Bahamas and Cuba. If it turns north and passes over Jamaica, Florida’s back in play and if it turns north and passes west of Jamaica, I would have a hard time seeing it miss Florida after that.
The rest of the US East Coast needs to keep watching. The sharp turn to the north has happened before—most notably in 1954, with Hurricane Hazel.
I don’t know what will happen. Hazel did move slowly and linger in the Bahamas before being picked up by a strong trough. It and the trough merged after Hazel came ashore as a Category 4 (recently confirmed on reanalysis) and together they produced a fearsome storm that killed 81 people in Toronto.
FORECAST
Jamaica on Monday, probably a devastating Category 4/5 blow.
Cuba later on Monday, and then the Bahamas on Tuesday. After that is anyone’s guess. It could linger off the Southeastern US for most of next week before it either comes ashore or goes out to sea. The two major model suites agree on the track through the Bahamas but not on timing after that, or whether it will come ashore. So keep watching, but it’s unlikely this will spare Jamaica or Cuba or the Bahamas.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE?
There’s been a persistent swarm at Bombay Beach, CA this week, leading the state to issue an advisory, and leading to screamapillar clickbaity headlines.
Bombay Beach, CA is at the southern end of the San Andreas. Southeast of there the region gets geologically more complicated. There’s also a volcanic field, and it is home to one of the largest geothermal energy plants in the nation.
The advisory is for one week.
CalOES issued an Earthquake Advisory on 29 September 2016
According to the USGS, “Preliminary calculations indicate that, as of 10:00 am (PDT) Sept. 27, 2016, there is a 0.03% – 1% chance (1 in 3000 to 1 in 100) of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake being triggered on the Southern San Andreas fault within the next seven days through October 4, with the likelihood decreasing over time. This probability range is estimated using several models developed in California to assess foreshock/aftershock probabilities.”
The calculation was made by seismologists at the USGS at its Menlo Park, CA, Pasadena, CA, and Golden, CO, centers, for the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, of which USGS seismologist Morgan Page is a member. The calculation is based on the most recent time-dependent Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast model (UCERF3), combined with the most current concepts of the likelihood that an aftershock of the M=4.3 could be larger than its mainshock. This is called an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence, or ETAS, developed by the great Japanese seismologist-statistican, Yosihiko Ogata).
It is currently not possible to predict earthquakes, and it likely never will be since all earthquakes big and small start exactly the same way. But we can do probabilities, and the probability of a large earthquake after this swarm is indeed higher.
As for the headlines, like Gizmodo’s today, no, a massive earthquake is not imminent, unless one means geologically, then “imminent” can be anytime between now and the year 2850.