The welcome final resolution of the fake “Iranian nuke” saga means billions in frozen Iranian assets will be released. Sanctions will be lifted — but not completely by the USA because of the non-nuclear related sanctions that have an even longer history, some dating back to the overthrow of the Shah in 1979. Some, inspired by supposed threats to other “friends” in the Middle East are more recent.
After the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), US has imposed several new non-nuclear sanctions against Iran, some of which being condemned by Iran as a violation of the deal. The United States has been considering new penalties, which reportedly seek to punish several companies and individuals from Iran, Hong Kong, and the United Arab Emirates that the US believes have been involved in Iran’s ballistic missile tests, and a law restricting visas for people that have visited Iran, as well as for Iranian citizens that have dual nationality, and confiscating Iranian assets abroad, and recent law regarding Iran's missile program However, US delayed the announcement of these penalties. According to Seyed Mohammad Marandi, professor at the University of Tehran, even as the [nuclear] negotiations were taking place, the general consensus in Iran was that the United States would move towards "increasing sanctions through other excuses then that of the nuclear program", such as "terrorism and human rights", adding that "the only thing Iran has not been blamed for by Washington is global warming". He said that these post-JCPOA sanctions could "severely damage the chances for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action bearing fruit"
Over the years, one of the most problematical sanctions has been the inability of Iran to get spare parts for its aircraft. The situation came to a head in 2010 when the EU banned Iran Air over safety concerns about the state of its aircraft.
With the EU lifting all sanctions, this leaves the way open for Airbus to sell parts and it is quite possible that Boeing will be also allowed to sell a greater range of spares on safety grounds.
Iran Air needs to replace almost all its now aging aircraft. Patching up what are now vintage aircraft can only go so far. With the right-wing hysteria against normalizing relations with Iran, it is highly unlikely that the Iranians would consider placing an order for new aircraft with Boeing. The risk of a President Trump/Cruz or even a President Clinton being forced by lobbyists to block delivery is too great. Such contracts have a very long time scale between placing and the airline finally getting the planes.
So it is that this has appeared in the Wall Street Journal:
Iran will buy 114 civilian aircraft from Airbus Group SE after the expected removal of sanctions on the country, Transport Minister Abbas Akhoundi told state media on Saturday.
….
Mr. Akhoundi promised to invest more than $20 billion in new planes in the next decade during a visit to the Paris Air Show last year. In April, Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization had said the country would need up to 500 new planes in that period.
As the article points out, Airbus already has very full order books so new orders will take some time to come on stream. In the meantime it is quite likely that any shortfall between Iran Air’s needs and the repaired fleet it can muster will be filled by leasing from companies outside of the USA.
The only upside for the USA is that some companies supply parts for Airbus planes (I believe the landing gear for the A380s is a US product) but the big money is in the engines. Pratt and Whitney and a joint venture between GE and Snecma of France are options but again these may be considered sensitive to being held up by current or future US sanctions. Rolls Royce no doubt will thank the US right wing for the orders it will get as a consequence.
Of course new aircraft are not the only projects that the Iranians will now be looking to spend that unfrozen money on. Significant upgrades are needed for their oil industry. Even with the completion of their nuclear power station, they are still going to need extra generation and are keen to move away from fossil fuel generation — they don’t have an oil refinery and would rather export it anyway. So where are all those contracts for wind turbines going to go I wonder? A lot of Iranian money is going to be pumped into the world economy in the next few years. Continuing sanctions on the most spurious of grounds means that the US ferverts and the lobbies that influence them are costing American jobs.