Leading Off:
● AZ Ballot: Ugh. Terry Goddard ought to know better. Goddard, a Democrat and former state attorney general, is teaming up with Chuck Coughlin, who was once a top advisor to former GOP Gov. Jan Brewer, to promote a ballot measure that would require Arizona to use a California-style "top-two" primary. In a top-two system, all candidates from all parties run together on a single ballot; the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, then advance to the general election.
But while goo-goo types try to claim (without much evidence) that such an approach yields more moderate candidates—as if that's an unalloyed good—California's experience shows that it mostly just means that Democratic voters get disenfranchised. That's because lower Democratic turnout in primaries means there's a greater chance that two Republican candidates can secure general election spots, even in blue districts. In fact, this is exactly what happened in California's 31st Congressional District in 2012 and then again in the 25th in 2014.
Fortunately, Arizona voters resoundingly rejected a similar measure by a two-to-one margin in 2012, and the state Republican Party has already expressed its sharp opposition to this effort. Conservatives, it turns out, aren't very interested in helping more moderate candidates carry the GOP banner. The big difference this time, though, is that this campaign's been bankrolled with $1 million from retired hedge fund manager John Arnold, a Texas billionaire (and former Enron executive) who has previously funded efforts to roll back public employee pensions. Hopefully, though, Arnold's money won't change Arizonans' opinions on top-two.
4Q Fundraising:
● AZ-Sen: Ann Kirkpatrick (D): $850,000 cash-on-hand
● DE-Gov: John Carney (D): $504,000 raised (July 8 to Dec. 31); Colin Bonini (R): $38,000 raised, $25,000 loaned (July 8 to Dec. 31)
● DE-AL: Sean Barney (D): $81,000 raised (in one month)
● FL-13: Charlie Crist (D): $500,000 raised
● IA-01: Monica Vernon (D): $200,000 raised, $608,000 on hand
● ME-02: Bruce Poliquin (R-inc): $330,000 raised, $1.55 million cash-on-hand
● MN-08: Stewart Mills (R): $258,000 raised
Senate:
● AL-Sen: Marine veteran Jonathan McConnell has a very tough task ahead of him if he's going to deny longtime Sen. Richard Shelby the GOP nod, and so far, he's not getting any significant outside support. While the Senate Conservatives Fund spent big last cycle to try and unseat Sens. Thad Cochran and Mitch McConnell, SCF Grand Poobah Ken Cuccinelli doesn't sound interested in aiding McConnell.
While Cuccinelli didn't rule out getting involved, he did note that "we only get in a small number of races every year," and he even praised Shelby for opposing the Obama administration on guns. If anyone's going to come to McConnell's aid in the March 1 primary, they'll need to do it very soon. Unfortunately for McConnell, other big anti-establishment groups like the Club For Growth haven't given any hint that they'll play here.
McConnell raised $750,000 over the past few months and loaned himself $250,000. That's not nothing, but it's a drop in the bucket compared to what Shelby can deploy. Indeed, Shelby has already spent millions on positive ads (though Shelby's opening spot had one hilarious continuity glitch), and he's out with another one. The commercial stars a small business owner who praises Shelby for being "a lead Republican voice" against bank bailouts, which is certainly a good way for the Senate Banking Committee chair to find common ground with tea partiers.
Shelby is also getting some air support from Citizens Super PAC. The group spent $260,000 promoting Shelby as someone who fights Obama's agenda. (Hat-tip Greg Giroux)
● IL-Sen: Does Jesse Jackson, Sr. still have much pull in Democratic politics? I suppose we'll soon find out. Jackson, who twice ran for president in the 1980s, just gave his endorsement to former Chicago Urban League president Andrea Zopp, who faces an uphill battle in Illinois' Democratic primary for Senate. Limited polling has shown Zopp trailing Rep. Tammy Duckworth by large margins, and she's far behind in fundraising, too. In addition, state Sen. Napoleon Harris is also running, and he could split the black vote with Zopp.
House:
● AZ-02: A new PPP poll for former state Rep. Victoria Steele finds her trailing freshman GOP Rep. Martha McSally 48-39, while Steele's Democratic primary opponent, ex-state Rep. Matt Heinz, faces a wider 48-35 deficit. In its polling memo, Steele's campaign makes it clear that it's releasing this survey to highlight that gap between Steele and Heinz, but a 4-point gap is pretty meaningless this early on. (Arizona's primary isn't until Aug. 30.) What's more, in the primary, both candidates are tied at 29 apiece, so no one has any real advantage.
McSally's numbers are concerning, though. Forty-eight percent is awful close to 50, so if these numbers are accurate, Steele would need to win more than 80 percent of undecided voters to prevail. And, of course, this is also an internal campaign poll. That's not to impugn PPP's accuracy, but as all political observers know, candidates seldom release polls when the results aren't favorable. So if this is the best that Steele is seeing, then McSally, who won the closest House race in the nation in 2014, is in pretty decent shape.
● GA-03: Two more Republicans who had expressed interest in this safely red seat have decided not to go for it. Ex-state Rep. Jeff Brown formed an exploratory committee a little while ago, but says the race would have been too expensive. Matt Brass, the chief of staff to retiring Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, didn't rule out a bid a few weeks ago, but he will run for the state Senate instead.
Right now, state Sen. Mike Crane has the primary to himself, and no other notable Republicans have publicly expressed interest yet. But the Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently reported that Mac Collins, who represented a previous version of this seat until he ran for the Senate in 2004, is considering. The Journal-Constitution also says that two more names have been "floated": state Labor Commissioner Mark Butler and ex-Rep. Paul Broun.
Broun held a neighboring seat until he ran for the Senate last cycle, and he certainly made an impression. Among many other things, he called evolution and the Big Bang Theory (the scientific idea, not the show) "lies straight from the Pit of Hell." Broun's 2014 Senate campaign utterly bombed, but Broun seems like exactly the type of guy who would try to resurrect his career in a different seat.
● IL-15: Yeah Mr. Shimkus! Yeah science! The American Chemistry Council loves to spend big to help establishment Republicans, and they're coming to Rep. John Shimkus' aid. The group is spending about $290,000 on a spot praising Shimkus as someone who fights for jobs and against regulations. (Fun fact: The ACC is headed by Cal Dooley, a former California Democratic congressman.) Shimkus faces a primary with state Sen. Kyle McCarter in this safely red seat.
● IN-09: Businessman Trey Hollingsworth has been running for the GOP nod for months with little fanfare, but a new group called Indiana Jobs Now has started airing TV spots for him. Politico says the total buy is $36,000, which isn't very much, but it's a bit more than you'd expect for someone who appeared to be little more than a Some Dude. Hollingsworth faces Attorney General Greg Zoeller and state Sens. Erin Houchin and Brent Waltz in the May 3 primary for this 57-41 Romney seat.
● NC-09: Former CIA agent George Rouco is challenging Rep. Robert Pittenger in the GOP primary, and he recently picked up an endorsement from ex-Rep. Sue Myrick. Pittenger's family's real estate company is being investigated by the FBI, and Rouco is hoping that questions about the congressman's ethics will propel him to victory in the March 15 race. But last week, Pittenger's camp released a Public Opinion Strategies poll showing him in a dominant position in the GOP primary.
The poll was conducted Nov. 30 to Dec. 2, before the Myrick endorsement but after the FBI investigation became public knowledge. The survey has Pittenger beating Rouco 68-12, and gives the congressman a 61-20 favorable rating with GOP voters. There's no indication that Rouco has the money to hit Pittenger, and no major outside groups have come to his aid.
Pittenger is also airing a new TV ad touting his efforts to help fight terrorism. It also features a clip that we're likely to see often this cycle: President Obama telling George Stephanopoulos that "we have contained" ISIS. One thing to keep an eye on, though, is whether this line gets resurrected in ads targeted at a general election audience, or if it remains confined to GOP primaries.
● NY-03: On Sunday, former North Hempstead Supervisor Jon Kaiman announced that he would seek the Democratic nod for this open swing seat. About one-third 20 percent of the district lives in North Hempstead, which Kaiman ran until he retired in 2013 (supervisor is the equivalent of mayor), so he'll likely start with some good name recognition. Kaiman is leaving his posts as Nassau Interim Finance Authority chair and as an advisor to Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Hurricane Sandy relief.
North Hempstead Town Councilwoman Anna Kaplan and Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern are also running in the primary, while lobbyist Brad Gerstman and ex-Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi have formed exploratory committees. A number of other Democrats have also expressed interest in running to succeed retiring Rep. Steve Israel, but DNC member Robert Zimmerman took his name out of contention on Sunday.
However, local Democratic leaders have another name in mind for this Obama 51-48 seat: North Hempstead Town Supervisor Judi Bosworth. Nassau County Democratic chair Jay Jacobs told Newsday that "[i]t would be foolish to think anyone could beat her in a primary," and predicted she would clear the field if she got in. Even prospective foe Suozzi called her a tough candidate, and declined to say if he'd stay out if she ran, though few Democrats think he'd defer for her. (This is the guy who insisted on running against Eliot Spitzer in the 2006 gubernatorial primary and got destroyed 82-18.)
However, Newsday says that Bosworth hasn't given any indication that she wants to run for Congress. Bosworth is also 68, which is a bit old to begin a House career in a swing seat. Bosworth hasn't said no to a bid and the filing deadline isn't until April, but it doesn't appear that she's chomping at the bit to campaign here.
● NY-19: Law professor Zephyr Teachout, who was recently endorsed by the chairs of the 11 Democratic county parties than make up the 19th District, announced on Monday that she would indeed run for this open seat in the Hudson Valley. That immediately followed a declaration from another Democrat over the weekend, Ulster County Comptroller Elliott Auerbach, that he would sit the race out. But Teachout, as we've noted, doesn't have much of a connection to the district: Originally from Vermont, she's only rented a home in Dutchess County for less than a year, and she was also renting an apartment in Brooklyn as recently as last month, according to Politico New York.
And while she performed well here when she challenged Gov. Andrew Cuomo in 2014, that was in a Democratic primary, where she ran explicitly to Cuomo's left. In a general election, that sort of record will play differently, especially in a swingy seat such as this one. By way of illustration, the Democrats who represented this area before retiring GOP Rep. Chris Gibson won the old 20th District in 2010, Kirsten Gillibrand and Scott Murphy, both had much more moderate profiles at the time. (Only once she became senator did Gillibrand move to the left.)
Perhaps for these reasons, Livingston Town Councilman Will Yandik, who says he's been in touch with the DCCC, responded to Teachout's entry by saying that he's still considering a bid. However, Yandik didn't offer a timetable for his decision, and seeing as Teachout has the support of the local establishment, he'll need to move quickly if he wants to put up a serious fight.
● PA-07: National Democrats sound excited about pastor Bill Golderer's campaign against Rep. Pat Meehan, and they'd be even more excited if Meehan had to waste some money in the GOP primary. Meehan does face an intra-party challenge from real estate developer Stan Casacio, but we'll need to see if Casacio is actually capable of causing the incumbent any grief.
Casacio led the GOP in the small township of Whitemarsh, so he may have some useful political connections. It's also possible that his real estate company has given him the ability to self-fund, or access to influential donors. Of course, he could just turn out to be a Some Dude who gets crushed and goes unmentioned in even the nerdiest of political trivia games. In any case, it's going to be very hard for Casacio to unseat a tough candidate like Meehan. Romney carried this district 50-49.
● PA-08: Last week, former FBI agent Brian Fitzpatrick announced he'd seek the Republican nomination for the seat his older brother, GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, is vacating at the end of this term. Should the younger Fitzpatrick prove successful, it naturally got us to wondering: Have any brothers ever directly succeeded one another in the House? The source to turn to for such information is always the University of Minnesota's Smart Politics site, which says this phenomenon has happened on a number of occasions—16, in fact.
Most cases of fraternal succession took place long ago, with just a handful since World War II. The most recent instance took place in 2010, when Mario Diaz-Balart succeeded his brother Lincoln in what was then Florida's 21st Congressional District, but Mario was already a member of Congress: He simply slid over from the 25th District to his brother's seat after Lincoln announced his retirement. Prior to that, Arkansas' Asa Hutchinson (now the state's governor) won the seat his brother Tim left open to run for Senate in 1996.
The other two post-war cases happen to involve some well-known figures: Arizona's Mo Udall, who followed his brother Stewart in 1961, and North Carolina's Sam Ervin, who won a special election in 1946 after his brother Joseph died. Sam didn't seek re-election to the House but later was appointed to the Senate, where he became famous for leading the committee that investigated Watergate. For the full run-down on all of the brother-to-brother handoffs throughout U.S. history, click through for UMN's complete roundup.
And if you were wondering, no brother-sister or sister-sister pairs have ever been involved in any sibling successions. While many voters profess to dislike congressional legacies, it'll actually be a sign of a certain type of progress when we see women succeeding their sisters in office.
● VA-05: On Monday, former congressional aide Ericke Cage dropped his bid for the Democratic nomination for this 53-46 Romney seat. Albemarle County Supervisors Chair Jane Dittmar has the Democratic side to herself, but she'll need a whole lot to go right if she wants to have a shot here.
● VA-10: Real estate developer LuAnn Bennett kicked off her bid against freshman GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock a month ago, and it sounds like she won't face any credible opposition for the Democratic nod. While State Sen. Jennifer Wexton didn't rule out a bid back in April, she recently endorsed Bennett. Loudon County Board of Supervisors Chair Phyllis Randall and EMILY's List are also in Bennett's corner. Romney narrowly carried this Northern Virginia seat, though Comstock is a very tough candidate.
Legislative:
● WA State House: Democrat Darcy Burner emerged as a netroots hero when she challenged (and nearly beat) GOP Rep. Dave Reichert in 2006. However, she then went on to lose two more races for Congress, including a rematch with Reichert in 2008 and an open-seat bid in 2012. Now, says PubliCola, she's preparing to return, with her sights set on a more realistic target: an open state House seat. The district she's reportedly interested in is being vacated by GOP state Rep. Chad Magendanz, who is running for state Senate. Barack Obama carried it by a 53-44 margin, so it should be winnable for a Democrat in a presidential year.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.