Two-term Republican Sen. Richard Burr faces the fight of his life in North Carolina against former Democratic state Rep. Deborah Ross. He leads her by just 45-42 in the Huffpost Pollster average, and both parties have recently begun heavily targeting the race. Hillary Clinton’s resilience in North Carolina and Burr’s reportedly lazy approach to campaigning even have Republicans worrying he might lose.
What’s more, if Burr loses, he'd break a remarkable streak: As Smart Politics' Eric Ostermeier emails us, no state has ousted elected incumbent senators from opposing parties in back-to-back election cycles since 1956. North Carolina voters narrowly voted for Republican state House Speaker Thom Tillis over Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in the 2014 Republican wave after Hagan had served just a single term. Should Burr go down to defeat, it would therefore be one for the history books.
The last time such an event happened was in Kentucky:
- 1956: Former Republican Rep. Thruston Morton defeated Democratic Sen. Earle Clements
- 1954: Former Democratic Vice President Alben Barkley defeated Republican Sen. John Sherman Cooper
Barkley had served as senator for 22 years before becoming Harry Truman’s vice president after the 1948 elections. But Barkley only returned to the Senate for a bit over a year before dying at age 78, and Cooper soon regained his old seat in 1956.
Much more recently in Missouri, we almost saw this pattern recur when the following set of elections took place last decade:
- 2000: Democratic Gov. Mel Carnahan defeated Republican Sen. John Ashcroft
- 2002: Republican Rep. Jim Talent defeated Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan
However, that pairing represents a considerable exception because Jean Carnahan was never elected to the Senate in her own right. Her husband, Mel Carnahan, died in a plane crash three weeks before Election Day, but he still won the race (Democrats weren’t permitted to replace his name on the ballot). When Lt. Gov. Roger Wilson succeeded Carnahan upon his death, he promised to appoint Carnahan’s widow, Jean, if the deceased governor posthumously prevailed, and indeed wound up doing so.
Since states typically conduct Senate races two out of every three cycles (barring special elections), it’s also worth taking note of a few examples since 1956 where states have ousted incumbents in two consecutive elections that fell four years apart. However, even that hasn’t happened in 32 years:
Iowa:
- 1984: Democratic Rep. Tom Harkin defeated Republican Sen. Roger Jepsen
- 1980: Republican Rep. Chuck Grassley defeated Democratic Sen. John Culver
Colorado:
- 1978: Republican Rep. Bill Armstrong defeated Democratic Sen. Floyd Haskell
- 1974: Democrat Gary Hart defeated Republican Sen. Peter Dominick
Maryland:
- 1968: Republican Rep. Mac Mathias defeated Democratic Sen. Daniel Brewster
- 1964: Democrat Joseph Tydings beat Republican Sen. James Glenn Beall
Daily Kos Elections currently rates the Tarheel State’s 2016 Senate race as Lean Republican. Although Burr is a modest favorite, there’s a very real chance he could lose and end a six-decade streak in elections for the Senate—and fittingly, it would take place in the very evenly divided swing state of North Carolina.
(Special thanks to Eric Ostermaier and folks on Twitter for helping us with the research for this post.)