In some ways, we’ve gotten good news over the last few hours. As Hurricane Matthew cleared the Bahamas, its winds dropped off slightly from earlier peaks and the storm was downgraded to a Category 3. Also, the storm track appears to be close to the eastern edge of projections, meaning that the most damaging winds have, for the most part, stayed off shore.
Early this morning, the storm was brushing the Florida coast just off Cape Canaveral, where gusts of over 100 mph had been measured. If it progresses as expected, it will continue to track slowly to the north-northwest, remaining close offshore of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina over the next day.
If this holds true, the coast will be spared the damage of storm moving directly on land, and the associated surge will also be reduced. However, Matthew is still expected to bring a storm surge of 7’ or more to a long section of the coast. Many coastal islands will be over-topped, new channels will be cut in barrier islands. No place along the path of the storm should be considered “safe.” While the highest winds may spin just a few dozen miles out at sea, hurricane force winds are expected over a broad area.
And if you’re wondering what that second blob is further out at sea — that’s Hurricane Nicole, which has thankfully been weakening and growing less organized.