Republican Sen. Mark Kirk is out with a poll from the GS Strategy Group, but it doesn’t provide him with much good news. The survey shows him trailing Democrat Tammy Duckworth 41-37, while Hillary Clinton carries Illinois 50-33. Kirk is arguing that he’s running far ahead of Donald Trump, but this survey indicates that the undecideds are disproportionately Clinton voters.
Kirk dropped his poll days after a Duckworth internal gave her a strong 46-37 lead, and an independent survey from Southern Illinois University showed her up by a massive 48-34. Kirk is undoubtedly trying to convince donors, and more importantly, outside groups that he’s worth their money, but that’s not going to be easy. The well-funded Senate Leadership Fund has ignored this seat entirely and left Kirk to fend for himself. The Chicago Sun-Times reported two weeks ago that the NRSC would launch a $750,000 buy to show that they believed Kirk could win, but we haven’t seen any ads from them here yet at all. (Kirk’s campaign says they are running commercials, though.)
National Democrats aren’t quite acting like this contest is over, but they’re coming close. On Monday, the DSCC axed their $600,000 ad buy that was to begin Oct. 17, something they almost certainly wouldn’t do if they didn’t feel good about Duckworth. Maybe Kirk will be able to persuade national Republicans to help him but if this poll is the best thing he’s got, it’s going to be a tough sell.
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