On behalf of the DCCC, Garin-Hart-Yang is out with a poll of Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District. They give Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder a small 44-40 lead against Democrat Jay Sidie, with Libertarian Steve Hohe taking 9. (Without Hohe, Yoder has a similar 50-45 lead.) The sample gives Hillary Clinton a 52-42 edge in this suburban Kansas City seat. (The survey was taken Oct. 5-8, with the 2005 Trump tape surfacing on Oct. 7.)
While Romney won this district 54-44, this is the type of affluent and well-educated area where Trump has always struggled. Even an August Yoder poll, which gave the incumbent a 53-36 lead, had Clinton up 44-38. However, a September Sidie poll gave Clinton a stronger 45-31 edge, while Yoder led 49-37.
Until a few months ago, Yoder looked safe here. However, while Trump’s unpopularity has complicated things for him, GOP Gov. Sam Brownback may be a bigger problem for Yoder. This poll gives Brownback a horrific 19-66 favorable rating, and for good reason. As we’ve noted before, Brownback has radically slashed the state budget, and his cuts to education have been particularly brutal. It's gotten so bad that last month, local Republican voters revolted against Brownback's self-described "experiment" and ousted several of his allies in the state legislature in the GOP primary. Sidie’s very first ad tied Yoder to Brownback’s education cuts; Yoder immediately released a response ad, a good indication that he knew this issue could harm him.
According to our House reservations chart, neither the DCCC nor House Majority PAC have reserved any ad time here. However, if the DCCC really believes that Yoder is vulnerable this close to Election Day, that’s likely to change soon. As this poll shows, even Democrats concede that Yoder is the favorite. But if Trump causes Team Red more problems downballot in the next month, this is a seat where Republicans could be in for a nasty surprise.
Let's turn this Kansas seat blue. Please chip in $3 for Jay Sidie today.
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