writing this as a result of looking at the questions and responses here and checking the trend lines here
First, as compared to one month ago, Clinton is up 1, Trump down 1.
Second, Obama won in 2012 by 3.9% and won 332 electoral votes.
Now, what really caught my attention is what we are seeing as results on specific questions
Enthusiasm among Clinton voters is 83%, which is up 2%, while Trump is only at7 9% net enthusiastic, down 12% in a month. So you might ask yourself whose voters are more likely to stay home, especially if it is clear that Trump is going to lose, which he actually feeds by saying the election is rigged against him.
On favorable/unfavorable, Clinton is now 43/53, down very slightly from 45/53,
Trump is now 31/66, down from 34/64 a month ago
In general, Trump has continued to sink on important measures from last month.
A few states among registered voters
Qualified to serve:
Clinton 59-40 net 19 yes
Trump 39-58 net 19 no
Temperament to serve:
Clinton 59-40 net 19 yes
Trump 34-64 net 30 no
Has strong moral character
Clinton 47-52 net 5 no
Trump 30-66 net 36 no
Is honest and trustworthy
Clinton 34-62 net 28 no
Trump 34-64 net 30 no
About comments on Access Hollywood tape, percentage of people who say it made them
more likely to vote for Trump 1%
less likely to vote for Trump 35%
no difference 63%
Commentary below
This poll was taken October 10-13. That means that over time there were increasing news stories about women coming out against Trump.
Looking at the data within the poll, and the movement over time on certain questions, Trump is heading down on some key measures, in a way that if it continues might indicate a cratering of his campaign. Specifically, as noted above, the fact that he now trails in the proportion of his supporters who are on net enthusiastic about supporting him is one key indicator. Another is the impact of the Access Hollywood tape, which I suspect has contributed to the decline in enthusiasm.
I would note that two major network polls were released today, the other have CLinton up by 11. If you average those 2, it would be Clinton up by 7.5%, which is roughly what has been shown in other polls released in the latter part (Thur-Sun) of this past week.
In general, on the national level, the polling data strongly indicates that Clinton’s position is getting stronger while Trump’s is getting significantly weaker.
Remember that what we see in national polls usually does not show up in state polls until about a week later.
What is also interesting is looking at the models and aggregators.
Real Clear Politics now has Clinton at a net 5/5% advantage, slightly down, but with no tossups has Clinton at 340 electoral votes. Someplace around 340 electoral votes is where most of the projections now fall. At Upshot blog, when they do multiple iterations, the most common result puts Clinton at 347 electoral votes, which would be Obama 2012 states + NC.
There is increasing anecdotal evidence that AZ is moving in our direction, and some anecdotal evidence and polling that a number of other states may be coming into play.
I remain quite confident on the Presidential level.
As Trump continues to verbally shoot himself in the foot, I think Clinton’s chance will increase, with possible good down ballot effects.
Just saying.
PS — Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium now has Clinton’s chances of winning up to 98%
PPS — consider this another contribution in my series of posts to help keep people sane and calm