CO-3 is not on the forecasters’ radar, but I think we stand a very good chance of flipping it from red to blue in three short weeks. If it does flip, then we will have experienced a wave and a Democratic House of Representatives is really possible.
Cook and others who try to predict congressional outcomes still see CO-3 as “likely Republican or “leans Republican” at best. Understandable, if you look at history. This distict has been reliably red, with few exceptions, in the last couple of decades. But it is possibly less red than it used to be due to demographic changes that prognasticators may not have caught up with as Rocky Mountain lifestyle towns boom and traditional agricultural and resource-extraction towns decline.
Even more possible is a depressed Republican turnout swamped by quietly robust Democratic turnout. If so it will be partly thanks to the Clinton campaign’s ground game, which is visible and apparent here. There is no evidence of any kind of Trump campaign other than yard signs.
On top of all that, in Gail Schwartz Democrats have a stronger candidate than we have had in this district in years while our Trumpist incumbent, Scott Tipton, is an utter and complete nonentity.
There is no public polling in the district, but Schwartz outraised Tipton in the third quarter, $718,000 for her to $393,000 for him. While Tipton had more cash on hand at the end of the quarter ($859,000 for Tipton compared to just $211,000 for Schwartz), a Democratic Superpac is making up the difference by spending $2.2 million on television ads in the last three weeks of the campaign, compared to a $1.3 million ad by a Republican Superpac for Tipton. Plus, we can hope Schwartz has been spending her cash productively while Tipton sits on his for no apparent reason.
All told, I’d offer the possibility that CO-3 could be a terrific bellweather. If Schwartz is winning here, then Democrats may be winning more broadly than is widely recognized.