The GOP is falling apart before our very eyes—that much is clear. The gaping chasm between the elite/establishment wing of the party and the white working-class voters in the South who have consistently voted Republican (often against their own economic interests) has swallowed whatever middle ground may have once existed between the two factions. Libertarians, in the meantime, don’t know which way to turn. This has Republicans of all stripes conjecturing about what the future holds for conservatives—and here’s one thing they seem to agree on: The GOP as we know it won't exist following this election. Niall Stanage writes:
John "Mac" Stipanovich, who has worked in Republican circles in Florida for 35 years, including as a senior adviser to Jeb Bush and chief of staff to former Gov. Bob Martinez, said that he thought “people of good intentions and goodwill may regain dominance in the Republican Party” but that the process would take a long time.
“That may be a much-shrunken Republican Party,” Stipanovich said. “We may be about to enter a wilderness here in which we will wander for a decade or more, and hopefully emerge. But if that’s the case, then we need to wander. I personally don’t want to be in a party that is characterized by Trumpism.”
Stipanovich's theory suggests a journey that plays out over several election cycles as a fight to the death ensues. Then there's the two-party theory.
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In an interview with Vox, published on Friday, GOP consultant Steve Schmidt predicted that an "alt-right party" and "a center-right conservative party" would emerge.
In this case, conservatives would be left with continually warring factions.
It's also worth mentioning that the white evangelical voting bloc, a GOP staple, has already begun to crumble during this election. Many in the so-called "family values" crowd have proven themselves to be value-less, dogmatic voters by virtue of their continued support for the wholly indecent Trump. Fissures within that bloc are beginning to emerge, starting with millennial evangelicals, who will likely redefine the values that once assured the evangelical vote.
All of this rejiggering could be exacerbated exponentially by the potential of a Trump media organization that will continue to trumpet the nativist, low-information, conspiracy-laden ideas Trump has advanced throughout 2016.
Politics has a remarkable way of surprising us, even on the safest of bets. But following 2016, there may be no such thing as a safe bet for the foreseeable future.