House Majority PAC is out with new numbers from Clarity Campaigns showing former Democratic state Sen. Emily Cain sporting a 47-43 lead over Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin. This northern Maine district is heavily rural, white, and working-class, meaning it’s been stubborn territory for Team Blue in 2016 despite a history of leaning toward Democrats. But Cain’s most recent internal had her up 46-45 two weeks ago, while Poliquin has failed to produce any contradictory numbers. Hillary Clinton’s campaign even recently devoted $250,000 to the district, with an eye toward boosting Cain.
But even though Maine’s 2nd has voted for every Democratic presidential nominee since 1992, HMP’s poll also found the presidential race tied at 39-39 apiece. However, that’s a marked improvement from surveys several weeks ago, which found Donald Trump picking off the district thanks to his resilience with working-class whites. If that holds, a draw or even a Clinton victory here would make it much easier for Cain to prevail since she would not have to rely on as many Trump voters splitting their tickets for her. Both parties are treating this race as a top-tier contest, with Democratic groups having reserved $2.6 million in ads and Republican groups directing $3.7 million here.
As part of that $3.7 million, the NRCC continues an appalling line of attack in a new ad that tries to slam Cain for supposedly wanting to fat-shame young girls by forcing schools to weigh them and report it to the state. The spot even shows several distraught-looking teenagers waiting in line to step on a scale. But the bill the ad actually refers to was one Cain sponsored to help fight childhood obesity by collecting data on it, and what the ad doesn’t tell you is that not only was any information gathered confidential, parents could also opt out—not that those details are going to stop the NRCC. After the last NRCC ad ran, Cain aired a spot accusing the GOP of “exploit[ing] the insecurities of teenage girls,” and also saying that, like many women, she’s struggled with her own weight.