For background, I have been doing this for about ten years, including some mid-terms where I ran predictions for Senate races only. My numbers/predictions tend to yield similar results to Nate Silver’s and the other poll analysts, although my model is much simpler. I don’t weight polls, I just average all polls conducted in a given month. This October, there are so many polls coming out that I am going to run the numbers twice, these being the mid-October numbers. In the first week of November, I’ll publish my numbers for the latter half of October.
Methods for Plus -Minus Polling by Mark Hainds
#1 Includes all state polls at Pollster, Real Clear Politics, and Fivethirtyeight included.
#2 If a state is polled more than once in the specified time period, only the newest data is included in the monthly or bimonthly average.
#3 Polls with data that overlaps a two month period (e.g. Sept 28-Oct 4) are only included until two new polls from the most recent month (October in this case) are included into the average. At the point we have two polls conducted entirely within the specified time period, overlapping (months) polls are dropped.
Reading the Spreadsheet
On the far left are the electoral votes, followed by the state abbreviation.
Then the margin. The number is negative if Trump has the lead.
The electoral votes are assigned to the central column "as is", if the margin is a positive number. These would be counted as votes for Hillary -if the election were held today.
The columns to the left, are EV for Hillary if we give Trump =1, +2, or +3 percentage votes.
The columns to the right, are EV for Hillary if we give Hillary, an additional +1, +2, or +3 percentage points.
Hillary currently wins, (if the election were held today, even with the most negative assumption =subtracting 3% points from all 50 states)
The numbers are currently trending towards Hillary.
If a state is not on the board at the end of October, it is probably not in play. I have only had one state in the last two elections awarded against my predictions, that was not "on the board.'" That was Indiana which went for Obama in 2008, when I predicted it for McCain.
As of October 20th, 2014. In the center – AS IS column, Hillary is currently polling at 340 EVs.
If we take away 1% from all 50 states, Hillary wins with 322 EVs.
If we take away 2% from all 50 states, Hillary wins with 293 EVs.
If we take away 3% from all 50 states, Hillary wins with 287 EVs.
I believe the numbers are still trending in Hillary’s favor.
|
|
Clinton
|
|
|
|
|
Clinton EV
|
|
|
|
EV
|
State
|
Margin
|
|
-3
|
-2
|
-1
|
EV as is
|
+1
|
+2
|
+3
|
3
|
AK
|
-7.5
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
9
|
AL
|
-19.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
AR
|
-18.5
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
11
|
AZ
|
0.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
55
|
CA
|
27.0
|
|
55
|
55
|
55
|
55
|
55
|
55
|
55
|
7
|
CT
|
15.0
|
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
9
|
CO
|
5.2
|
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
3
|
DC
|
65.5
|
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
DE
|
14.0
|
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
29
|
FL
|
2.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
16
|
GA
|
-2.8
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
16
|
4
|
HI
|
32.0
|
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
IA
|
-2.3
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
4
|
ID
|
-25.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
20
|
IL
|
22.0
|
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
11
|
IN
|
-6.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
KS
|
-13.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
8
|
KY
|
-17.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
8
|
LA
|
-11.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
11
|
MA
|
22.5
|
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
10
|
MD
|
21.0
|
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
1
|
ME-CD1
|
17.0
|
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
ME -CD2
|
-1.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
ME
|
11.0
|
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
16
|
MI
|
10.2
|
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
10
|
MN
|
5.0
|
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
MO
|
-6.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
MS
|
-11.5
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
MT
|
-12.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
15
|
NC
|
3.2
|
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
3
|
ND
|
-21.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
NE
|
-17.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
NE - CD2
|
-9.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
NH
|
7.1
|
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
14
|
NJ
|
14.5
|
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
5
|
NM
|
8.0
|
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
NV
|
2.5
|
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
29
|
NY
|
22.0
|
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
18
|
OH
|
0.7
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
18
|
7
|
OK
|
-24.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
7
|
OR
|
8.6
|
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
20
|
PA
|
6.4
|
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
4
|
RI
|
19.5
|
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
9
|
SC
|
-6.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
SD
|
-16.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
11
|
TN
|
-13.5
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
38
|
TX
|
-5.3
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
UT
|
-10.3
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
13
|
VA
|
8.3
|
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
3
|
VT
|
28.5
|
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
12
|
WA
|
15.0
|
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
10
|
WI
|
6.3
|
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
5
|
WV
|
-20.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
WY
|
-33.0
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
538
|
|
Clinton
|
|
-3
|
-2
|
-1
|
Clinton EV
|
+1
|
+2
|
+3
|
269
|
|
Sum
|
|
287
|
293
|
322
|
340
|
351
|
352
|
374
|