The table below reflects the Early Voting returns in North Carolina as of the end of voting on Saturday, October 22. One-Stop, or in-person early voting started on Thursday, October 20. Mail-in voting started last month, but constitutes a much smaller portion of early voting.
Remember, Obama carried NC in 2008 by a very narrow margin of 0.32% — or 14,177 votes - and lost NC in 2012 by 2.04% or 92,004 votes. Therefore, I am comparing the early voting data to 2008 rather than 2012 as 2012 were not winning numbers for North Carolina. If key voting groups exceed the early voting performance of 2008, we have a good shot at NC turning blue again.
Ending
0ct 22, 2016
|
# Ballots Accepted |
Early Vote Percentages |
Turnout Percentages |
Registered Voters |
One-Stop Votes |
Mail-in Votes |
0ne-Stop Percentages |
North Carolina |
452,216 |
100.00% |
6.65% |
6,795,706 |
385,410 |
66,806 |
85% |
Democrats |
217,997 |
48.21% |
8.09% |
2,694,956 |
195,241 |
22,756 |
90% |
Republicans |
124,135 |
27.45% |
6.05% |
2,050,622 |
97,180 |
26,955 |
78% |
Unaffiliated |
109,126 |
24.13% |
5.40% |
2,019,474 |
92,123 |
17,003 |
84% |
Libertarian |
1058 |
0.23% |
3.45% |
30,654 |
866 |
192 |
82% |
Female |
248,939 |
55.05% |
6.89% |
3,613,040 |
211,177 |
37,762 |
85% |
Male |
196,017 |
43.35% |
6.43% |
3,047,319 |
167,954 |
28,063 |
86% |
White |
319,137 |
70.57% |
6.73% |
4,740,471 |
262,196 |
56,941 |
82% |
Black/AA |
106,806 |
23.62% |
7.06% |
1,513,042 |
101,101 |
5,705 |
95% |
Other* |
22,692 |
5.02% |
4.18% |
543,193 |
18,979 |
3,713 |
84% |
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* Other includes Asian, American Indian, Hispanic, more than two races, and undesignated
To reach our goal in the next two weeks, we need to get:
more than 42% total Early Vote Turnout for North Carolina — let’s make it at least 43%
more than 47.2% total Early Vote Turnout for Democratic Voters — let’s push for 48%
more than 43.7% total Early Vote Turnout for Women Voters — 45% is reasonable in this election
more than 51.7% total Early Vote Turnout for Black Voters — outperforming all other groups again?
And If Republicans perform better than in 2008, we need to up the numbers even more. Republicans and Republican-leaning voters traditionally perform better on Election Day, so we need to press our advantage during Early Voting.
For comparison, see North Carolina’s Early Voting Results for 2008 and 2012 below. The differences may seem slight, but they mattered.
Early Voting 2008 |
# Ballots Accepted |
Early Vote Percentage |
Turnout % |
Registered |
One-Stop Votes |
Mail-in Votes |
0ne Stop % |
Total NC |
2,638,916 |
100.00% |
42.00% |
6,282,575 |
2,410,052 |
228,864 |
91% |
Democrats |
1,355,347 |
51.36% |
47.22% |
2,870,500 |
1,291,649 |
63,698 |
95% |
Republicans |
795,453 |
30.14% |
39.66% |
2,005,482 |
673,041 |
122,412 |
85% |
Unaffiliated |
486,300 |
18.43% |
34.67% |
1,402,471 |
444,727 |
41,573 |
91% |
Libertarian |
1816 |
0.07% |
44.06% |
4,122 |
1,699 |
117 |
94% |
Female |
1,486,174 |
56.32% |
43.73% |
3,398,704 |
1,357,975 |
128,199 |
91% |
Male |
1,129,405 |
42.80% |
39.90% |
2,830,385 |
1,031,435 |
97,970 |
91% |
White |
1,823,423 |
69.10% |
39.59% |
4,605,490 |
1,620,288 |
203,135 |
89% |
Black/African American |
701,898 |
26.60% |
51.68% |
1,358,124 |
685,194 |
16,704 |
98% |
Other |
59,583 |
2.26% |
27.10% |
219,843 |
55,396 |
4,187 |
93%
|
2012 Early Voting |
# Ballots Accepted |
Early Vote Percentage |
Turnout % |
Registered |
One-Stop Votes |
Mail-in Votes |
0ne Stop % |
Total NC |
2,774,594 |
100.00% |
41.89% |
6,624,136 |
2,556,228 |
218,366 |
92% |
Democrats |
1,317,822 |
47.50% |
46.11% |
2,858,086 |
1,255,612 |
62,210 |
95% |
Republicans |
874,205 |
31.51% |
42.81% |
2,042,194 |
765,683 |
108,522 |
88% |
Unaffiliated |
576,273 |
20.77% |
33.82% |
1,703,934 |
529,129 |
47,144 |
92% |
Libertarian |
6294 |
0.23% |
31.59% |
19,922 |
5,804 |
490 |
92% |
Female |
1,549,821 |
55.86% |
43.59% |
3,555,274 |
1,426,577 |
123,244 |
92% |
Male |
1,194,098 |
43.04% |
39.99% |
2,986,346 |
1,101,530 |
92,568 |
92% |
White |
1,870,724 |
67.42% |
39.81% |
4,698,878 |
1,682,063 |
188,661 |
90% |
Black/AA |
757,427 |
27.30% |
50.84% |
1,489,771 |
738,521 |
18,906 |
98% |
Other |
134,869 |
4.86% |
24.54% |
549,636 |
124,657 |
10,212 |
92% |