One poll shows Clinton leading by 1 point in a state which has not been carried by a Republican since Jimmy Carter ran in 1976! Other polls show Clinton within single digits of Trump. The largest sample (5 times larger than the other poll samples) is the Washington Post poll by Survey Money. This is the one that shows Clinton ahead in Texas.
Clinton is running ads in Texas, a practice absent in most prior Presidential elections in the Lone Star State. Texas is a “’Cash machine” for Democrats running in other states or for presidential campaigns to spend in states viewed as “easier to win” than Texas. Texas Congressional candidates challenging Republican incumbent are marginalized and starved for cash. Without polling data, most predictions are based totally on history, rather than the realiteis on the ground.
2016 appears to be a watershed year in Texas. A strong slate of qualified candidates won the Democratic nomination for Congress in Texas. Incumbents , except for Willam Hurd, are complacent. As Donald Trump’s scandals and bigotry dominates the airwaves, more previously straight Republican voters are alienated from the top of the GOP’s ticket. Whether they cross over and vote Democratic or stay home, the prospects improve for Clinton and the Congressional challengers.
The Lone Star state has 36 Congressional District. Eleven were drawn to remove Democrtic voters from 25 districts the GOP chooses to keep “safe” for GOP incumbents. However, the 23rd remains the only truly swing district in the state. Tea Party William Hurd beat Democratic Pete Gallego for the seat in 2014. The district runs from the outskirts of El Paso to San Antonio and is geographically large enough to fit the landmass of 9 states into it. In Presidential election years it usually goes Democratic and with the strength of the state executive incumbents war chests, it usually reverts to Republican in mid-term election years. Both Democrats and Republicans pour money into those races each election cycle in amounts large enough to exceed the money raised by all the other Democratic Congressional nominees in Texas combined!
Texas has a strong slate of Texans challenging obnoxious GOP incumbents in 2016
US-TX 1: When the boundaries were redrawn to include Smith County, the partisan divide carried US-TX 1 into the Republican camp. The incumbent is known as one of the “most stupid men in Congress.” Louie Gohmert is also known in the District as “Liar, Liar, Louie Loue” for the many false statements that come out of his mouth. He ignores the Constitution and habitually advocates for violating the civil rights of many of the state’s cfitizens. This term he floated the idea of establishing districts where gay and lebisans would be segregated from other citizens. Gohmert cloakes his rhetoric with “religiousity” yet ignores the immorality of Donald Trump in endorsing Trump for President.
Shirley McKellar, PhD is waging the state’s most energetic race in her quest to unseat Gohmert for her home district’s Congressional Seat. A former US Army Nurse Corp officer, McKellar, is a world leader in the fight against Breast Cancer. She co-founded the African American Breast Cancer Awareness. A leader, who always does her homework, McKellar implemented much of the Women’s Health Services for the US Military in the European Theatre while deployed abroad following 9/11.
The contrast between McKellar and Gohmert is stark. She is careful and checks sources and facts while he misleads with fabrications which usually have no basis in fact. I chided a publisher of a newspaper where I once worked in the District, telling him that “In my day, we would not have been allowed to get by with the publishing quotes without stating the facts.” I was told: “If we fact checked Gohmert, we would not have staff for anything else because he so frequently says things which are untrue.”
McKellar has challenged Gohmert before. The first time she was ignored. The second time her team and supporters grew stronger. This time she rarely has to contact television or newspapers because they contact her first. If hardwork and consistent effort pays off, we will see a significant clink in the wall which has protected Gohmert.
US-TX 6: Joe Barton’s life is a train wreck both professionally and privately. We don’t have as many idiotic statements this term to quote. Perhaps that is because his health and marital status (and dating efforts) consume more of his attention than showing up to debate, vote and represent the people of the district. In ‘14, he tied for the worst attendance record in the House. His marriage to the former staffer broke up. He’d a;ready divorced the mother of his older three children before he married the the much younger staffer. In ‘14 Barton was divorced for the second time. He had surgery. Then bounced back by posting on his facebook page a photos of his “current girl friend” with his young son at the Grand Canyon and on his arm at diplomatic meetings. This girl friend looks young enough to be his granddaughter. The women in his life get younger but Joe doesn’t.
By contrast, Ruby Woolridge (D) has a stable record of service as an ordained minister, school district counselor and mother/care taker to her son, a soldier wounded in Bush’s Middle East wars. Barton is fast to vote to send others into combat but never served himself. He voted to cut funding for the VA and then voted to cut it again with the Sequester. Woolridge saw up close and personal the impact of cuts to VA funding during the decade her son struggled (before his death in ‘14) with his war injuries.
- Barton claims the minimum wage is unnecessary. Woolridge knows it should be raised.
- Barton pledges to abolish the EPA and OSHA. Woolridge knows we need reasonable regulation.
- Barton voted against funding for autism research and voted for funding levels too low to effectively combat the Zita Virus or Ebola. Woolridge sees the health of Americans as an important part of our national security.
US TX-7: Culberson voted against renewing the Import/Export Bank, prompting thousands more US jobs to move offshore. This month he joined other Republicans in voting to weaken laws which were enacted to help prevent another stock market crash. He voted to allow unlimited donations from foreign donors to political pacs such as Citizen’s United.
His Democratic opponent is James Cargas, an attorney for the City of Houston. Cargas served in President Bill Clinton’s Energy Department. A specialist in sustainable energy, he understands the importance of the oil and gas industry in Texas and values the shift to sustainable energy whenever possible. During his tenure with the City of Houston, Houston has become the number one purchaser of sustainable energy of any governmental entity in the United States. Cargas is the balance we need in Texas as fossil fuel is depleted and new sources must be developed.
He can transition to Congress with a minimal learning curve. His experience as congressional staffer and work during the Clinton administration in the Energy Department gives him valuable insight into the operation of Congress. Working as City Attorney in Houston, he understands the impact that national policy has on the people here at home.
Recent polls show that Clinton leads Trump by large margins in the City of Houston. Trump leads in Houston’s suburbs. It will be interesting to see what the margins are this year in the 7th, a district carefully crafted to protect the GOP incumbent.
US-TX 10: Mike McCaul’s rise in politics in Texas is a testiment to the impact of a determined father-in-law. When McCaul was running for the Texas House, his father-in-law was building his Clear Channel media empire. In addition to producing Fox New Radio and Rush Limbaugh, McCaul’s in-laws empire controlled most of the outdoor advertising in Texas. They reserved most of the bulletin boards for Republican candidates during the election cycles. I personally experienced how difficult it was to buy outdoor for Democratic candidates in ‘08 when I was assisting David Van Os in his campaign for Texas Attorney General. We were frequently told by Clear Channel that we could book boards in the summer but not in the fall!
McCaul is known as the richest man in the US House, thanks to the money transferred to his wife from her father’s media empire. He rarely contributes any of their own money into his campaign. McCaul is a good example of those who “have” get.
Tawana Cadien, a registered nurse with an MBA in Public Administration, is challenging McCaul again for the 10th Congressional Seat. Cadien is a very smart woman. She instantly is able to translate the impact of fiscal policy will have on families and individuals. I have witnessed as she listened to very complex technical energy/economic discussions which were beyond the comprehension of many others in the room, and seen her translate what she was hearing into the probably impact on individual consumers and citizens.
- McCaul voted to remove regulations intended to prevent another stock crash. Cadien understands the importance of reasonable regulation.
- McCaul has endorsed Donald Trump for President. Cadien works to given women and children protection from sexual predators and treatment.
- McCaul has riden to power through the power of his extreme right-wing hate promoting father-in-laws media empire. Cadien seeks to heal our nation and to give all people access to opportunities and resources to thrive.
US-TX 14: Randy Weber ignores the needs of his district repeatedly. However, when he tangled with Texas fishermen and fisherwomen, he unleased a hornets’ nest. Democrat Mike Cole has run for
Congress before in a different district. Now, Weber has infuriated members of his own base by opposing the Sports Fishing legislation which would lessen restrictions on deep sea fishing. Currently they must pay big bucks to charter a commercial fishing boat and the commercial fishing company gets to keep the catch. Republicans have been publishing flyers urging people to vote against Randy Weber in November. They don’t mention Mike Cole’s name on the flyer, but they call him and tell him what bait shops have the flyers so that he can drop by and have impromptu Meet and Greets with the fishermen who get those flyers.
There are lots of differences between Cole and Weber but this will probably be the tipping point in a Gulf Coast district. Mike Cole is the youngest Congressional Candidate running in Texas in 2016. His campaign resonates with the young.
REPUBLICANS’ DISGUST WITH INCUMBENTS:
As Hillary opens field offices in Texas and deployes resources to the Lone Star State, the disgust of Republicans with the performance of their own incumbents helps to crack the “Tea Pot” in Texas. The disgust of people with the antics of the Top of the GOP ticket, further alienates their base.
Texas has decent Challengers on the ballot which give Texans a real choice this year.
US-TX 17: Bill Flores has been entrenched in the District which is home to the Baylor Bears in Waco. This year he is challenged by former USAF officer Bill Matta. Matta is one of three of Texas’ Democratic Congressional Nominees who are former Military officers with Doctoral degrees. His military service includes serving with NATO in Bosnia, at the USAF Academy and at the Pentagon. A graduate of UT Austin, Matta has always practiced a dual career track as a military officer and educator. Currently he is Dean of Foreign Language, Speech and English at McLennan Community College. The district includes many active duty military and retired military families.
The 17th includes Bryan/College Station, home of Texas A&M University. It also contains the town of West, which was demolished by an explosion at a fertilizer factory. It extends to Round Rock on the outskirts of Austin.
US-TX 22: Another former military officer, Mark Gibson, is challenging the Republican incumbent (Pete Olson) in Texas’ 22nd District. Gibson is an attorney who is the CEO/owner of a tech company. This is Gibson’s first run for the US House. Gibson, earned his doctorate in juris prudence, and has actually created a business which created jobs in the district.
US-TX 23: Texas’ only truly swing district attracts more donor dollars than all the other districts combined. It is predicted that Democrat Pete Gallego will regain the seat he lost to Tea Party extremist William Hurd in ‘14. Gallego has accomplished more for the citizens of the district since he left office than the incumbent has while in office.
The district contains wilderness and national parks. Gallegos is has proven a good steward of those national treasures while Hurd advocates and votes for policies which endanger them and the economic benefits they bring to the nation.
US-TX 24: Jan McDowell, CPA, is a refreshing candidate in this DFW metroplex district which includes a few precincts in Tarrant County and runs north into Bedford, Colleyville, Grapevine, Irving, Euless, Farmers Branch and Dallas. Incumbent Kenny Marchant (R) has been in office since 2004 and has devoted most of his efforts toward obstruction and assaulting women’s right to choose. He has voted repeatedly to repeal funding for Planned Parenthood and spend much more effort on legislative activities which attempt to impose his religious beliefs on others than on solving the problems which most Texans say are most pressing. Texans of both major political party’s rank jobs and the economy as the number one issue yet, Marchant has worked against economic development in the district. His one vote not to renew the charter of the Import Export Bank cost the DFW metroplex over 7000 jobs when GM decided not to relocate its national Headquarters to Dallas. The CEO of GM specifically mentioned the vote of members of the Republican GOP Congressional Delegation in the Import Export Bank as the action which influenced their decision to not move to Dallas. Marchant joined other Tea Party members of Congress in opposing the Import Export Bank. Although the bank uses no taxpayer funding and actually deposits money INTO the General Fund from fees they earn from financing loans for foreign companies and countries who buy American produced goods and services, Marchant joined with misguided, short-sighted House members in calling the services of the Import Export Bank “Corporate Welfare!” His lack of understanding of the operation of Americans bank of last resort is appalling. During the summer of 2016 while the charter of the Import Export Bank was not operative due to the misguided vote of Marchant and other Republicans, thousands of American jobs moved offshore. The House reversed their vote in the fall but by then the DFW Metroplex had lost the GE Headquarters and many Americans had lost their jobs to foreign workers. Jan McDowell understands finance. She understands a balance sheet. She is intelligent enough to know that the borrowers who finance their goods through the Import Export bank and pay fees and interest are not receiving subsidies or “welfare” any more than an individual is when they finance a car or home and pay fees and interest! Kenny Marchant does not deserve to draw a salary for helping to destroy the economy of this nation! He should be recalled from office.
Note: This section was added Monday 10/24/2016. It was omitted in error when the story was published on 10/23/2016
US-TX 25: Roger Williams rose in power by being George W. Bush’s and Rick Perry’s man who helped ram unpopular public private toll projects through the Texas Legislature. Activist Kathi Thomas is challenging him this year. The district is another nightmare of ridiculous proportions. It runs from Austin all the way to Fort Worth where it includes a few precincts in Tarrant County.
Candidates working difficult districts help down-ticket and up-ticket candidates, even if they are unable to unseat the incumbent.
This year the efforts of Congressional Challengers working in tandem with the Clinton campaign gives Texas Progressives the best opportunity we have had in 40 years to crack open some of the state’s Republican strongholds.
US-TX 27: Rarely is there a greater contrast between decent and slimy candidates as is playing out in the 27th District this year. Republican incumbent Blake Farenthold does not attempt to hide his “frat boy” animal house behavior. A few years ago he was photographed in rubber duckie pj’s with two scatily-clad young women who looked like “Hooter's waitresses.” Farenthold rarely disappoints those who thrive on irresponsible improper speech and behavior. Twice this year newspaper editorial boards have commented on how decent and nice the Democratic nominee Raul “Roy” Barrera is and how different he is from Farenthold. The Corpus Christi paper rarely endorses a Democrat but endorsed Barrera. They pointed out that Farenthold has failed to serve the people of the district and that Barrera truly wants to serve the people. Barrera is a first generation immigrant and is the first college graduate in his family. He has a degree in law enforcement and has served with the US Marshal Service.
US-TX 31: Mike Clark is making his first run for Congress against 30 year do-nothing GOP incumbent Carter. Mike is running a substantive campaign discussing the issues and what needs to be done for the people of the district. Carter is urging voters to re-elect him because “there is much more I want to accomplish.” Why should anyone think returning someone to Congress who hasn’t accomplished much in 30 years and has only obstructed others for 8 years who tried to get the work done for the people of this nation will make a significant enough change for the better is beyond me. Mike Clark and the other 12 Democratic Congressional nominees outlined in this diary are endorsed by the Texas Federal Blue Seed PAC along with the 11 Democratic Congressional incumbents from Texas. There are a few other Democratic Nominees, but we selected these because they are energetically working with the meager resources they have to build political infrastructure and to get their messages across. There are others with good positions who are definitely better than the GOP incumbents in their district. but we have not heard much from them this year. One which shows promise is Adam Bell who is running in 3. His campaign did not reply to our phone calls or e-mails. Hopefully, he will run again and be able to attract more resources and find better ways to be accessible to voters and others interested in his campaign.
The section above was added Monday 10/24/2016
THE IMPACT OF THE TRUMP FACTOR ON HOUSE RACES:
Many pundits are commenting on the impact of Trump on the Presidential race in red states. However, no polling has been conducted in these Republican incumbent congressional districts to measure the Trump Factor impact on Congressional races.
Most have totally ignored what is going on this election cycle and based predictions of the outcome in Texas’ US House Districts 100% on history.
Texas Federal Blue Seed PAC launched a GOTV campaign targeting voters in 11 of Texas’ Congressional Districts with GOP/Tea Party incumbents in late September. A dual pronged attack, it promotes the candidacy of Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Congressional Nominee challenging the GOP incumbent in the district. It augments, rather than competes, with traditional GOTV methods such as phone banking, direct mail and block walking. Working through the Congressional campaigns, buttons with Hillary’s and the Congressional nominee's pictures on the same buttons, are distributed free to people in public venues. The buttons are used as ice-breakers to allow the activist to get in a one minute elevator speech urging the person to also vote for the Democratic Congressional nominee when they go vote for Hillary. Only people who indicate that they would like to have a Hillary button are given the buttons. In the pilot program in two districts, 7 out of 10 people approached said they would like to have the Hillary button. Although this is not a scientific poll, it indicates that the probability of Texas leaning more blue than most predict is stronger than most estimate.
These buttons are going into districts where there the Congressional campaigns are starved for GOTV funding. Research shows that when a person receives a presidential campiagn button from a stranger, they usually mention or show it to from 1 to 3 other people. A significant number of people will wear them if they receive them within a month of the election. Unlike push cards and literature, campaign buttons are seen by most recepients as “keep sakes” and do not end up in the trash.
Donations are needed to fund the final two weeks of this campaign. To donate go to
http://bit.ly/TexasButtons