As I detailed in part 1 of this series, Donald Trump is headed to the possibly the biggest defeat since 1984. This diary looks at the implications that Trump’s likely significant margin of defeat will have for Senate races this cycle.
The democrats (including Bernie Sanders and Angus King) currently have 46 seats and would need to net a gain of 4 seats to control the Senate, since Tim Kaine will be casting tie breakers come January.
I have divided the competitive Senate races according to their likelihood of being won by Team Blue.
Accidental Senators on the way out
I call these Republican Senators “accidental” because they represent solid Obama states and won their seats in the low turnout Tea Party wave of 2010. In a presidential year against worthwhile competitors, these Senators would never have been elected to the Senate. They are bad fits for their state and those accidents will be corrected on November 8.
Illinois
Mark Kirk has been a top target for democrats since 2006 when he was a congressman. He avoided defeat in 2006 and 2008 and claimed President Obama’s old Senate seat in 2010. In 2016, his luck has run out and Tammy Duckworth will claim this Senate seat.
Wisconsin
The less that is said about the execrable Ron Johnson the better. I’m looking forward to Russ Feingold being in the Senate once more.
New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte committed a fatal mistake on October 3rd, when she said in a debate that Donald Trump was “absolutely” a role model for children. Four days later the Access Hollywood tape broke. Oops. Of course, anyone with any rational observation of the race would know that to call Donald Trump a role model for children is a bad move, even without the Access Hollywood tape. Ayotte has tried to back pedal her support of Trump, but in a state where Hillary Clinton will win comfortably, Ayotte is fighting a lost battle in my opinion.
Tight Races that will likely break our way
In wave elections, such as 2006 for us, or 2010/2014 for the Republicans, races at are tight on Election Day tend to follow the wave. Charlie Cook recently debated on MSNBC if this election is going to be a wave election, rather than just a result of a favorable Senate map for democrats.
But his analysis gives away the game. In a wave election, even candidates who are running a strong campaign against the tide, like Pat Toomey, lose. And candidates who face significant challenges, such as Evan Bayh’s ethics issues, end up being pushed across the finish line by the wave. We also have just learned that the Clinton campaign is spending $1 million in Indiana and Missouri to boost down ticket candidates and that Clinton is focused on electing as many downticket democrats as possible over the final weeks of the campaign.
This attention from the top of the ticket as well as from high impact surrogates should make a significant difference in these close races, especially since the other side has the Trump albatross weighing them down. If Johnson, Kirk and Ayotte fall, then we need one more pickup (assuming we hold on to Nevada). Of the four seats below, it is far more likely that we win at least one than we lose all four.
Missouri
Jason Kander has run arguably the most effective ad in Senate races this cycle — an ad highlighting his military service as a strong defense against attacks based on his support for gun reform. The DSCC has redirected resources to this race, realizing that Kander has an excellent shot at knocking off the most endangered incumbent after Kirk and Johnson, according to charlie Cook.
Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey has surprisingly clung to a close race against Katie McGinty in a state that should be difficult for him in a presidential year. Hillary Clinton has Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes solidly in her column and she will rack up huge margins in Philadelphia and the adjacent suburban counties and recently pushed McGinty’s candidacy. Trump’s struggles in these counties and especially among Republican women may prove fatal to Toomey’s chances. Toomey is the only Senator running for election not to have taken a position on Donald Trump and that waffling may be a hard sell to voters — both among Trump supporters and among suburban county voters.
Indiana
Evan Bayh has been deservedly hit hard over his contacts with his future employers prior to leaving the Senate in 2010, he has still led in every poll since he jumped into the race. If the political climate were not as good for democrats as it currently is, Bayh would be facing real difficulties in his attempt to return to the Senate. However, with Trump possibly struggling in Indiana, Bayh may cruise to election.
North Carolina
Senator Burr, for some reason, waited until October to start his campaign, allowing Deborah Ross to pull into a close race. This outcome will likely depend on the Presidential result. If Clinton is able to get a margin of 4-5 points, then Deborah Ross has an excellent chance of defeating Richard Burr. If NC turns out to be a razor thin squeaker, then Burr likely holds on.
Former Presidential Candidates Potentially in Danger
Florida
Marco Rubio is in very real danger of losing this Senate seat. Polls have showed a close race and recently one poll showed a tied race for the first time since June, while others have shown a small Rubio lead. Like Ayotte in NH, Rubio has tried to thread the needle on his support of Donald Trump, while distancing himself from the scandal-plagued businessman. However, Rubio could be pressed by younger Cuban-Americans and other latinos over Rubio’s staunch support of the Cuban embargo, and on his flip-flopping on comprehensive immigration reform. President Obama took aim at Rubio in recent days, another sign that this race is competitive.
The DSCC pulled out of this race last week in order to spend more resources in MO and NC, but I think it is a mistake to believe that Rubio has this race won. If Hillary Clinton wins Florida by 6% or more, as I think she will, then Rubio will be in the fight of his life to avoid being swept out of office.
Arizona
Let me start by saying that John McCain is very likely to win re-election. However, he is going to be squeezed by angry Trump supporters on one side and an energized latino electorate on the other side. McCain previously described this race as the political fight of his life, and he has tried to have it both ways — giving tacit support to the man who questioned his war hero credentials, in order to survive a primary; and then dumping all over Trump as the race moved to the general. Trump has certainly noticed:
McCain has a solid lead, but if Hillary Clinton wins Arizona, and enough of Trump’s supporters do not vote for McCain, then this race will be closer than expected.
Winning it for Harry
Nevada
The open seat in Nevada left by retiring Sen Harry Reid was the lone opportunity for Senate Republicans to pick up a seat in this cycle. Kelly Ayotte will lose in NH because she spoke too favorably about Trump, Joe Heck will likely lose because he distanced himself too far from Trump. This race has been close from the start, but with Hillary Clinton opening a solid lead in Nevada and with encouraging signs in early voting, Cortez Masto is the odds on favorite to pull this out and be the first latina elected to the US Senate.
The upshot is that the Senate is likely lost to the Republicans at this point. I see the democrats picking up Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and at least three other races, while holding Nevada. A net gain of at least 6 seats will leave the democrats with somewhere between 52 — 55 seats. We get to 55 if we sweep all the above races, however McCain’s likelihood of surviving in Arizona means that 53 or 54 is more likely the top end.
One other thing to keep in mind is that Tim Kaine will have to resign his Senate seat at some point after election day, but Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe would appoint a successor until a special election could be held in 2017. Given that democrats have had a lot of success in winning statewide elections in Virginia in recent years, there’s a good chance that Kaine’s seat stays in the blue column in 2017.
NEXT: The House is absolutely in play!