consider a remark by Harry Enten of Five Thirty Eight.
Take the Obama 2012 states and remove Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and the 2nd CD Congressional District of Maine. That leaves 272 electoral votes. Clinton lead by 5% or more in all of the jurisdictions for those 272 electoral votes, 2 more than necessary for election.
In only one of those has Trump ever lead in a state poll, and that was an online Google poll which really does not count.
With 15 days to go those 272 electoral votes are effectively a firewall, and Clinton is pretty much guaranteed election.
In going into OH, FL, NV and NC Clinton is aiming at the next most likely states to fall, but also targeting states with competitive Senate races.
But even if Trump were to sweep all of those plus Iowa, he is still short of election.
Now I am going back to sleep.