A Google Consumer Survey of Idaho conducted October 18 to 21—the first presidential survey of the state to include independent Evan McMullin—shows Donald Trump in the lead, with support from 50 percent of registered voters, Hillary Clinton with 27 percent and McMullin third with 12 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson had 7 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein had 3 percent.
While Trump has a commanding lead in Idaho, the poll does speak to his problems in western states. His share in Idaho is nearly 15 points shy of Mitt Romney’s share of the 2012 vote there. Many Idahoans appear to have a general distaste for major-party candidates this year, with nearly one in four opting for McMullin, Johnson, or Stein.
McMullin, the #NeverTrump Republican who was virtually unknown until recently, has focused his campaign on winning Utah. He seems to be having some success in Idaho as well, possibly due to the high Mormon population of both states (69 percent in Utah and 26 percent in Idaho, the two most-Mormon states in the nation, according to the 2010 U.S. Religion Census of the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies). McMullin’s support in Idaho and Utah could indicate support Paul Ryan or those opposing Trump may have in the region in ongoing internal Republican battles.
Younger and older Idahoans differ sharply on presidential preferences, possibly foreshadowing future changes. Trump has 55 percent support among registered voters at least 55 years of age, but only 36 percent among those 18 to 34. Clinton has 31 percent support among both age groups, while McMullin has 17 percent and Johnson 10 percent among the younger one.
Methodology: Results presented above are from a Google Consumer Surveys question I commissioned asking Idaho respondents, “If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?” Available answers were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, Independent Evan McMullin, Libertarian Gary Johnson, Green Jill Stein, and I am not registered to vote in Idaho. These answers were randomized in order except for “I am not registered to vote in Idaho,” which was always the last option. Altogether, 337 persons were surveyed; results presented here are of the 269 respondents who said they were registered to vote in Idaho. Further information on the survey is available at surveys.google.com/....
I commissioned the survey to test the usability of a survey that receives a B rating from fivethirtyeight.com. While the survey has the limitations of any Internet-based survey, I found the process and results easy to navigate and the price ($0.15 per respondent) manageable. Such surveys may give data to persons or topics not otherwise receiving them. I would be happy to answer any further questions about the survey.