Raw first day totals and percentage increases.
|
2008 |
2012 |
2016 |
Percentage increase |
Nueces (Corpus Christi) |
5087 |
5039 |
6088 |
20.82% |
Harris (Houston) |
|
47093 |
67471 |
43.27% |
Tarrant (Fort Worth) |
28757 |
30113 |
43000 |
42.80% |
Bexar (San Antonio) |
29119 |
30087 |
35431 |
17.76% |
Travis (Austin) |
|
20942 |
35066 |
67.44% |
Dallas |
34415 |
lower than 08 |
58213 |
69.15% |
Hidalgo (Rio Grande Valley) |
|
11977 |
18526 |
54.68% |
Collin (Dallas suburbs) |
13900 |
16531 |
30000 |
81.48% |
|
First the Bad News.
1. Collin County is historical heavily Republican
2. While all counties are up heavily Hispanic counties are not up as much.
Good News
1. Older Hispanic voters traditionally vote on Election day
2. I was able to find early voting by poll site for Nueces county and the Heavy Hispanic areas are the ones with the biggest turnout change.
3. It’s hard to believe Texas being a high turnout state and it not improving the odds for Democrats.
4. Collin county has seen massive population growth over the last eight years so % increase in turnout isn’t as severe as the data shows.
The Neutral News
1. Some counties weren’t available yet. Montgomery, which Romney won by 70 points, doesn’t have historical info available(It with Collin are historically the biggest republican counties). El Paso isn’t available yet but according to election officials cracked it’s record around 1pm.
2. A lot of the interviews from news stories had voters citing wanting to “get the election over with” as why people were voting early. This could mean increased turnout won’t hold.