This is NOT intended as a detailed analysis per se, rather a reaction to listening to Morning Joe (yeah, I am a glutton for punishment), scanning several news sites, looking quickly at polling releases by 8 AM this morning, and monitoring my Twitter feed. It is also includes my own reflection.
First, there is NO closing of the race. Morning Joe made a big deal of two polls out yesterday and today showing a 5 point race. Scarborough tried to spin it as a closing, but it is not. In the case of the latter, it represents a stasis over the past week (it is a weekly tracking poll) which arguably is NOT being shown in other polls over the same period.
What they failed to mention is that the second edition of the ABC Daily Tracker came out, and it held at 50-38, or twelve points. As they had noted in the first edition of the poll, that represented an expansion of Clinton’s lead from 4 points in the Washington Post/ABC poll done by the same firm one week earlier.
But what was even more revealing is what is inside the poll. Let me use a tweet from John Harwood to illustrate:
That shows the massive problem facing the Republican party right now.
But there is much more.
Meanwhile, Upshot at the New York Times has a released a new poll of NC done by Siena. I will use tweets from Nate Cohn to illustrate what is key:
Stepping back for a minute. If Clinton wins NC by outside the margin of error, Trump is going to get tromped. And we will probably pick up that Senate seat.
Speaking of Senate, Charlie Cook’s Cook Report has just upped its prediction on the Senate to Dems picking up 5-7 seats. Cook is usually small c conservative in making calls. This is an indication that he now believes the Dems will take the Senate, and the question is the size of their margin — this speaks to a 51 to 53 seats for Dems.
Meanwhile, if you want a real sense of what is happening in Florida, Mark Caputo, who really knows the state, has this terrific piece at Politico. Allow me to quote what he quotes from a memo by Clinton’s Florida state director Simone Ward:
“Democrats successfully outpaced Republicans in registering new voters, therefore expanding our electorate,” Ward wrote. “In this year alone, nearly 754,000 new voters were added to the rolls, of which 259,000 were Democrats and 206,000 Republicans — giving Democrats a seven point advantage. In fact, Democrats have added nearly 692,000 new voters to the rolls since 2012 versus 593,000 Republicans — and the trends continue to go upward in our favor.”
Ward also notes that the state has gone from 67-33 White-Non White in its electorate 4 years ago, while now the numbers are 64-36. That 3 point switch by itself seems to guarantee the state for Clinton.
And then there is what is happening with absentee ballots in Florida:
GOP vote-by-mail ballots (41.7 percent of 1.2 million cast) exceeded those cast by Democrats by 1.6 percentage points. In 2012, the gap was about 5 points. Another 1.9 million are outstanding.
In Utah, the polls seem to indicate that McMullin increasingly likely to carry the state, but Chris Jansing reported that in one county Democrats are doing a significantly better job of returning absentees than Republicans, and Dems recognize they can finish anyplace from 1st to 3rd in the state — that the state is still even in play is amazing. And it seems crazy that Mike Pence will be there on Wednesday. It will be interesting, because in his last trip I believe he was hosted by Sen Mike Lee. What Republican office holder of importance is willing to to appear with Pence? At the same time, believe it or not, Trump is taking time off on Wed for the ribbon cutting at his DC hotel — an event not open to the public. I expect press coverage, with skeptical remarks about why he is doing this if he is seriously still trying to get elected.
Jacob Soboroff talked to voters around Scranton and is finding there are some who are Trump supporters, strong Trump supporters, but who because of the candidates hammering the notion about a rigged election might not even vote. Now, I had predicted that those leaning Trump who were more anti-Clinton than pro-Trump might be discouraged, but I had not expected it to spread to passionate supporters.
I would suggest ignoring Real Clear Politics averages, for a reason well explained in two tweets by our own Armando:
The big news yesterday was the announcement that premiums for the ACA for those signing up through the Federal program (because their states refused to provide a marketplace) will be going up 25%. Several comments first about this, although I expect at some point Charles Gaba will address in more detail. This represents only about 6% of those with health insurance through Obamacare. The level of increase is very much in line with what was predicted (not by the President). Of course, that is not how it will be portrayed by the media, who has an interest in there being an issue that could keep the presidential contest alive, and I fully expect Trump and other Republicans to try to hammer on this. My own guess is that its impact is marginal.
There is now data showing young voters moving strongly to Clinton, or if you prefer, strongly against Trump. They are increasingly being motivated to turn out. You can read about it in this story from Vox, the key takeaway being that Clinton now seems poised to do as well with Millennials as did Obama in 2012.
The Trump campaign seems to be drinking its own Kool-Aid. It makes no sense to be spending resources in Virginia, especially given how limited the campaign’s financial assets seem to be. Further, doing advertising on tv without a supporting ground game is campaign malpractice, and Trump has no ground game in Virginia. In fact, it is increasingly looking like the margin here may be big enough that Dems will be picking up at least 2 and maybe up to 4 House seats. Obama has now endorsed Jane Dittmar for the open Republican seat in the 5th district, which is a sprawling mess that extends from way south up to the outer suburbs of DC.
So now let me step back and offer my own thoughts.
For me the baseline on electoral votes now seems to be more like 375 than my previous 348. Before I was saying 2012 states + NC + 2nd Congressional District in NE. I now am inclined to add AZ and GA to that mix. I am not yet ready to seriously consider adding TX or AK, but both remain possible in my mind. UT I have no way of determining. I am most inclined to think McMullin will, because he is a Mormon, pull it out.
I am very confident of Senate control. Based on what I am seeing in NV I am pretty confident we will hold Reid’s seat. I note that even as the Adelson paper endorsed Trump, their own poll showed Clinton up 7. Further, the data on early voting in Clark and Washoe counties indicates a very strong Dem performance. That means we only need four other seats to take control. I consider IL, NH, WI to be very solid which means we need only 1 more out of NC, MO, PA, FL, IN (I may have left out one). I think it likely we will take at least 2, quite possibly 4, and it is even quite conceivable all 5. If what we are seeing in the polls holds and even continues, and it is possible that we get a real blow out, then I would add AZ and OH as possibilities, with an outside chance of a surprise or two beyond that.
The House remains difficult. But if the race does expand out to a double digit national lead, it is narrowly possible.
The question of course is what additional news might break. Will the Daily Beast story about Trump presiding over parties with teenaged models with drugs and sex take hold? Will there be more women coming out? Might the Clinton campaign do an oppo dump to keep focus on Trump?
David Farenthold has promised at least one more story on the Trump Foundation.
Mother Jones has promised another investigative piece out today.
Kurt Eichenwald could come up with another hit.
Could the race narrow? Perhaps, but I think there is a greater chance of a final popular vote margin> >10 points than one <5. I expect to see national numbers for Johnson and Stein to continue to drop, and would not at all be surprised if McMullin gets more votes nationally than does Stein.
I will continue to observe, to comment, to share things I encounter that I think of interest to others here.
I will thing/reflect/write about other things. For example, our latest cat now seems to have problems paralleling some of mine — yesterday I had to take her for a cardiac checkup including an echocardiogram and we found some additional health issues. That was $1100 I had not planned on spending, not when looking at my own heart procedure one week from today.
But this election is not just critical, although I no longer worry about a Trump win. It is a real opportunity to change the direction of this country in a significant way.
It is worth noting that should we take back both the House and the Senate, Obama will have several weeks to directly cement his own legacy — move forward a batch of judicial appointments for lower courts as well as confirm Garland to SCOTUS, move forward on a number of legislative issue (although I assume he would consult with Clinton on priorities).
We have two weeks of pedal to the metal political work.
And then? It all depends upon how effective we are in the next two weeks.