Texans are turning out to vote this year during the first three days of early voting in record numbers. Traditional Republican Straight-Ticket voters are crossing-over and voting Democratic in one or more races. Some of Texas’ highest profile Republicans, including both George H Bush and George W. Bush and their wives have announced their support for Hillary Clinton for President.
It has been 40 years since the majority of Texans voted for a Democratic for President. This may be the watershed year for the Lone Star State. Whether Republicans cross over and vote Democratic or stay home, it benefits the Democratic slate.
The Clinton campaign is running television advertising in the major media markets in Texas this year. It is unusual for Democratic Presidential campaigns to spend money in Texas during the General Election. Last month Clinton opened several field offices in Texas. Until after the National Convention last summer, the only paid staffers were Clinton fundraisers. All field staff were volunteers. Having paid staff is a boost during Early Voting.
Fortunately, we have a strong slate of highly qualified Democratic Congressional Nominees in most of the districts where there are Republican incumbents. They are all grossly underfunded. Only one district (23) usually attracts significant donation when the Congressional incumbent is not a Democrat. Cherrypicking of voters to protect incumbents is so acute in Texas that 24 of Texas’ 36 Congressional district boundraries makes it very difficult for challengers to win. The only truly swing district is 23, which encompasses most of the Rio Grande border, running from El Paso to San Antonio. This district swings between political parties usually every election cycle. In presidental electon years Democrats usually win. In mid-term election years the spending of state-wide candidates usually helps Republicans claim that seat. Both political party’s pour money into those races. This year, as in 14, more money was donated in 23 than was donated to the rest of the Democratic candidates combined. Hopefully, Pete Gallego will prevail and reclaim the seat he lost to William Hurd in 2014. Hurd has been a dismal Congressman. He has championed religious position and ignored the economic needs of the district. His anti-envoronmental positions endanger the national parks in the district which are important economic engines for the region.
TEXAS HAS 10 DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL INCUMBENTS
Texas Federal Blue Seed PAC endorses the nine Democratic incumbents running for re-election and twelve of the non-incumbent Congressional challengers. The incumbents all represent districts which are viewed as “safe” districts. We do not anticipate any upsets on election day in 10 districts:
US-TX 9: Al Green
US-TX 16: Beto O’Rourke
US-TX 18: Shelia Jackson Lee
US-TX 20: Joaquin Castro
US-TX 29: Gene Green
US-TX 30: Eddie Bernice Johnson
US-TX 33 Marc Veasey
US-TX 34: Filmon Vela
US-TX 35: Lloyd Doggett
One of Texas’ Democratic Congressional incumbents, Congressman Hinojosa did not run for re-election. Vicente Gonzales won a five way Primary for the Democratic Nomination in US-TX 15. That district probably has the highest percentage of Democrats in Texas. Because this district would be very difficult for a Democrat to lose, and the other nine districts are predominately Democratic, we have not focused our efforts in those districts. Instead, we channel our help to the Democratic Nominees who are challenging incumbent Republicans. They have the hardest time raising funds and are usually the only line of defense against the wasteland of all (or predominately mostly) Republican local, statewide, and federal incumbents.
THE ROLE OF CHALLENGER RACES IN TEXAS THIS YEAR:
Presidential campaigns are usually transitory in a state. Congressional campaigns are residents in a district. While the Presidential campaigns “come and go”, deploying resources to the states and districts with the narrowest margins, the Congressional campaign remain in place as anchors for other campaigns up and down the ticket. Democrats are fortunate to have Democratic Nominees in most of the Districts in Texas. There are twelve nominees who are running vigorious campaigns challenging the Tea Party/GOP incumbents in Congress. They are running against some of the most obnoxious people in Congress. Donations usually flow easily to the top of the ticket. In Texas, non-incumbent Congressional Challengers are usually marginalized by pundits and donors. With few reasources, most of Texas’ Democratic challengers are adept at stretching campaign resources and skilled at spending what little they have to produce the best results.
When the polls started showing Hillary gaining on Trump, we were able to deploy some GOTV resrouces to the Congressional Challengers. On short notice, thanks to the volunteers with the Congressional Campaigns, we were able to distribute about 10,000 buttons with Hillary’s and the Congressional challengers’ photos on them to potential voters who may not have been on the Democratic voter rolls previously. Unlike push cards which have a short shelf-life, campaign button are usually viewed as keepsakes and retained for extended periods of time.
We launched the “Shop and Share” button campaign featuring Hillary and the Congressional Democratic Nominee in eleven of the challenger districts in mid September and restocked supplies for those who requested them in early October. Congressional campaigns were shipped boxes of buttons with their photos and Hillary’s to be distributed to “strangers” who said they would like to have a “Hillary button”. These encounters are in public venues and enable us to augment other GOTV efforts such as block walking and phone banking. During our pilot program in box stores in US-TX 1 (Louie Gomert R incumbent) and US-TX 6 (Joe Barton R incumbent), seven out of ten people offered the Hillary button accepted it and said “Thank you.” These are districts where the Republican incumbents have been re-elected by 10 point or greater margins. I either live in, or have lived in, both districts. I do not think that 7 out of 10 people would have accepted Democratic Presidential Campaign buttons in those districts in most previous election years.
During the last month over 10,000 one-on-one contacts have been made by congressional volunteers, urging people to vote for Hillary and the Congressional Nominee. The buttons are used as “Ice-breakers” to enable volunteers to give a 30 to 60 second “elevator” speech for the Congressional and Presidential candidates. In a state as large as Texas, 10,000 is not an exceptionally high number of contacts. However, these are contacts which probably would not have been made without this project and they are in districts where the least money has been donated, and the fewest resources have been deployed. The Congressional campaigns are hungry for GOTV resources and responded energetically to the project. Within a few days most had distributed their first box of buttons and were requesting more. Every contact by a Congressional campaign was also a message supporting the candidacy of Hillary Clinton for President.
THE POLLS ARE SHOWING HILLARY TO BE CLOSER IN TEXAS TO THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE THAN ANY DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN DECADES
Texas is a Winner Takes All Electoral College state. The benefits from the Congressional Candidates GOTV efforts can be three-fold:
- It helps build political infrastructure which enables other candidates on the ticket to win in 2016 or future years.
- In a year when Repubicans are disgusted with their Presidential Nominee, combined with the turn out for Clinton, it may result in a surprise upset in one of the GOP held Congressional Districts
- Even if the Congressional Candidate does not win in the district, their efforts may be part of the margin required for Hillary to win the state.
The Challenger Campaigns we are targeting are: US-TX 1: Shirley McKellar — challenging Louie Gohmert.
US-TX 6: Ruby Woolridge — challenging Joe Barton.
US-TX 7: James Cargas — challenging John Culberson.
US-TX 10: Tawana Cadien — challenging Mike McCaul.
US-TX 14: Mike Cole — challenging Randy Weber.
US-TX 22: Mark Gibson — challenging Pete Olson.
US-TX 17: Bill Matta — challenging Bill Flores
US-TX 23: Pete Gallego — challenging William Hurd.
US-TX 24: Jan McDowell — challenging Kenny Marchant.
US-TX 25: Kathi Thomas — challenging Roger Williams.
US-TX 27: Raul “Roy” Barrera — challenging Blake Farenthold.
US-TX 31: Mike Clark — challenging John Carter.
See Monday's Kos Story for profiles on these candidates and their districts.