First off I want to say I am so glad we’re having actual debates in this country. I have grown very tired of the “dueling press conferences” style of debates that were a staple of the Bush elections. Even Obama vs McCain was very non-confrontational with the candidates speaking mainly to the moderator and the American people instead of each other. Sometimes the debate rules even disincentivise directly addressing your opponent by giving your opponent more time to talk in response.
So it’s nice to see a real back and forth in the two debates we’ve had so far, even if this debate had a little too much crosstalk.
With that said let’s get right to the Top 5 Reasons this debate was bad for Donald Trump.
- Number One: It gave Clinton lots of ammo.
As every pundit has already said tonight, Pence made a big mistake claiming Trump didn’t say the things Trump clearly said. I suspect this was part of a strategy of “not taking the bait” but it just makes it look like there is no defense of Donald Trump’s statements, which is, of course true, but not the appearance the Trump campaign wants to project.
Between now and Sunday we will see a lot of video of Pence claiming Trump never said Crazy Thing X only to be followed by footage of Trump saying Crazy Thing X. This could cause one of two very different but equally problematic outcomes.
First, instead of claiming he never said anything Trump may be instructed to try and justify every one of his crazy statements the same way he has tried to spin his 1995 Tax Info that was leaked by the New York Times. The problem is the same one he is currently facing on the Tax issue; he just makes himself look like an ass. He also will be unable to fully prepare for the barrage of possible Trumpisms he may be forced to own and justify. There is no way for him to know which past Statements Hillary Clinton will remind us of on the Debate Stage. As we have seen he is not great on his feet. He stammers a lot, he has long word salad half thoughts and quarter sentences. Trump off the cuff is Trump at his worst.
The second scenario is that Trump may be instructed to try and weasel out of each of these statements which will just prolong the issue and cause more discussion surrounding his original statements.
I don’t anticipate Trump deciding to apologize for his remarks at the debate. That would be completely out of character, but he could. That may be the only way to defuse any of Hillary’s traps , although imagine a debate where Hillary mentions the Gold Star family and Trump apologizes to them directly into the camera. And then Hillary mentions the Mexican Rapists smear and Trump again apologizes into the camera. Sorry after sorry after sorry would immediately undermine the sincerity of it all.
- Number Two: Pence is the new Golden Boy.
Again as many pundits have already said Mike Pence set himself up for future political opportunities with tonight's debate. This could have some far reaching consequences. The most obvious is planting seeds of doubt, suspicion and paranoia in the Trump campaign with Donald upset that Pence is using him to try and get the Job that Donald Trump feels entitled too.
Especially when you consider how Mike Pence went about it. By distancing himself from Donald Trump, showing absolutely no loyalty to the top of the ticket and at one point calling Trump an “unpolished politician.” That had to rub Trump the wrong way, because if there is one thing Trump insists on its polish. Trump tower is all polished brass and glass.
Odds are this was the GOPs plan all along with the Mike Pence pick. Give an up and coming Conservative politician, who is the exact opposite of Donald Trump a national platform to make a name for himself as plan B after the election.
Trump will likely not be happy about this.
Especially if Pence begins to get some really great press coverage and Trump’s entire campaign gets overshadowed by Pence and his prospects in 2020. Another dip in the polls and I can see the GOP writing off this election with a plan to come back hard in 2020 with a serious candidate.
- Number Three: The Pence Effect.
No matter how you slice it the way Pence laid out his position on issues at the debate and his new status among the Christain conservatives is bad news for Trump. Sure he may make it easier for Christians and even Mormons in Utah to hold their nose and vote Trump but those voters were never going to support Clinton.
The far bigger downsides for Trump is Pence driving home the ultra-conservative ideology of the Trump campaign which many have until now seen as rudderless and flying by the seat of Trumps Chinese-made pants. Mike Pence just cast the Trump campaign as the right wing ideologues we’ve always suspected them to be, but couldn’t nail down due to Trumps willingness to say anything.
Suddenly the Trump campaign and it’s governing ideology is less of a moving target.
- Number Four: The Pence Comparison.
Pence was well spoken, calm, collected and was able to form full proper sentences at the debate. He performed like Mitt Romney or any other serious Republican Candidate for President. This is going to cause problems for Trump. If Trump does the same old song and dance that he did during the previous debate, the comparison of off the rails Donald Trump to serious and grown up Mike Pence is going to be stark and further fuel the Mike Pence bandwagon, while further casting doubts on Trumps temperament and character.
But any attempt to subdue Donald Trump will come with its own problems. For instance, if Trump’s handlers begin pointing to Pence’s performance as the gold standard that Trump should follow, he could react in a few, equally disastrous ways.
First, Trump could double down on Trump. Maybe due to jealousy, or pride or whatever you want to call it. Trump is the star of the Donald Trump show. Any attempt to tame Trump has been minimally successful at best and always temporary. So pointing to the Number 2’s performance and saying be more like this guy, could backfire with Trump at his Trumpiest. After all, it’s how he’s gotten this far.
Second, Trump could heed the advice. But what would that look like? Trump is barely able to stick to scripted remarks. Staying on message and in character as a serious politician while attempting to speak off the cuff, handling cross-talk, rebuttals and interjections will not be easy. I suspect Trump will try, just as he did for the first part of the last debate, but ultimately fall back into his old free-wheeling, half-baked ways.
Third, Trump may stick to a Pence-like demeanor, but in doing so will likely grow frustrated, angry and impatient as the debate goes on. And how well can Donald Trump really maintain the facade? For how long can he suppress the urge to instantly “correct the record?" For how long can Donald Trump force himself to speak in full coherent sentences? And how uncomfortable would that be to watch Trump struggling to maintain composure? What epic Twitter meltdown would follow immediately after he left the stage?
And most importantly if you take the Trumpiness out of Donald Trump, what is left? Anything worth watching? Anything compelling at all? Or will he just appear to be a neutered shell of his former self? Nothing will throw ice water on the Trump enthusiasm like being overshadowed by Mike Pence followed by trying to emulate the “Politics as Usual” Mike Pence style.
- Number Five: The Pressure is ON!
This was a solid B- performance by Pence. It was no Joe Biden blowout like we had in 2012. But Pence did a decent job doing what he set out to do. Which was mostly to build himself up in the eyes of GOP political junkies. And that’s who watched this debate. It was likely watched by very few regular people. I can imagine a lot of the 80 million or so who tuned into the First Presidential Debate probably changed the channel when they saw how boring this was in comparison. So as far as moving the needle goes, both candidates appealed to their respective bases. I doubt anybody undecided was swayed.
That means the pressure is on for Trump to best Hillary Clinton in the Second Presidential Debate, In many ways, the pressure was already there. Losing two debates in a row would be a death sentence for the campaign, a fall so hard that even squeaking out a win in the Third Debate wouldn’t be enough to change the tide. However, Mike Pence with his soft victory has shown that the debates are not rigged. This minor Pence victory (mostly on style) puts pressure on Donald Trump to live up to his running mate's abilities. Trump is at the top of the ticket but Pence has bested him so far.
When Joe Biden showed Barack Obama how to go after the Romney/Ryan ticket after The Presidents less than stellar performance in the first Presidential Debate of 2012, Obama responded by following Biden’s lead. He was charming and funny and brutal when it came to smacking down Romney’s lies. As a result, he won the following two debates
For the reasons I have laid out in this diary, I do not believe Trump has the ability to do the same thing. Yet he has too if he wants to have a chance at winning. That balancing act of not being too Trumpy is going to be extremely difficult. Especially when Donald Trump knows he has to win. He can’t perform worse than his VP choice. He has to show the GOP that he’s the one running for President. He is the star of The Donald Trump show.
And when push comes to shove, he won’t do the work that is required. He won’t participate in the mock debates. He won’t memorize policy details. He won’t figure out how to filter himself for the first time in his entire life. He won’t train himself to turn off his car salesmen persona that has allowed him to bullshit his way through life, business and this political campaign. Trump is unable to stop being Trump and that will be his downfall.
Mark Twain was quoted as saying “if you tell the truth, you don’t have to remember anything.”
That sentiment was the backbone of the Barack Obama campaign. He never flip-flopped because he never said anything he didn’t sincerely believe. This should be one of the easiest lessons for a politician to learn and master because they love soundbites. If you know what you believe and you know what your position is on any given issue it will be consistent and you can boil it down to a quick 30-second sentiment that is repeated like the pre-recorded messages of a pull string doll.
If John Kerry turned off voters by trying to have it both ways and saying things like he voted for the $87 Billion dollars before he voted against it. Imagine the damage Trump is doing to himself.
This very basic rule of mean what you say and say what you mean has been completely ignored by the Trump campaign and as a result, we have been given an extraordinary gift. A candidate who will say crazy messed up things on camera and then turn around and call you a liar when you bring it up. We will see this phenomenon every day between now and the Second Presidential Debate on Sunday and we have Mike Pence to thank for the opportunity.