This will hopefully be a daily post until election day, including daily data from the previous day.
I am trying to put some perspective to the early voting results in Florida, based on data provided to the public. All numbers come from the Florida government web site, captured this morning and updated there as of end-of-day yesterday.
I am aware that this ‘hard data’ does not say what will happen going forward, and I trust that others who give reasons for expecting numbers in Florida to improve know what they are talking about. These reasons include EV partisan voting patterns from previous years, demographic changes in the electorate, voters other than Dems and Reps (about 19% state-wide), and some expected Rep drift away from Trump.
I have intentionally stayed away from polls to focus on state-provided data, but I can’t ignore this one. A report out last night, and covered in several diaries here at KOS this morning, claims that up to 28% of Republicans are crossing over to vote Blue. If this is remotely accurate, then Florida is easily in the bag for Hillary.
First, the raw data.
We out-voted them by 481 at the polls, but we returned 2,011 fewer VBM ballots. Not a good day in total.
Raw Data
STAT |
DEM |
REP |
OTHER |
TOTAL |
DEM_ADV |
VE |
106,720 |
106,239 |
61,913 |
274,872 |
481 |
VBM |
42,101 |
44,112 |
28,018 |
114,231 |
-2,011 |
|
Next, let’s take a deeper look at yesterdays results. With 299,172 votes recorded by Dems and Reps yesterday, we lost 1,530 on the Reps state-wide and now trail by 17,456. The table below shows all counties ordered by decreasing magnitude of partisan change. This allows us to see where the biggest shifts occurred yesterday.
The top 4 counties were all Dem in 2012, and added solid net tallies to our count yesterday. The next 12 counties were all Rep in 2012, and added significant tallies to their count yesterday. From there on, it was a mostly mixed performance with gains and losses more or less where expected based on 2012 results.
COUNTY |
DEM_ADV |
DEM_NEW |
REP_NEW |
DEM_GAIN_NEW |
DEM_SHARE_NEW |
DEM_SHARE_2012 |
DEM_SHARE_2016 |
TREND |
State Totals |
-17,456 |
148,821 |
150,351 |
-1,530 |
49.74 |
50.44 |
49.76 |
-0.68 |
Broward |
133,639 |
19,485 |
7,824 |
11,661 |
71.35 |
67.55 |
71.56 |
4.00 |
Miami-Dade |
65,526 |
20,390 |
14,285 |
6,105 |
58.80 |
61.92 |
58.51 |
-3.41 |
Palm Beach |
48,785 |
12,279 |
8,523 |
3,756 |
59.02 |
58.56 |
62.40 |
3.84 |
Orange |
42,812 |
11,349 |
7,853 |
3,496 |
59.10 |
59.21 |
60.74 |
1.54 |
Lee |
-46,804 |
3,437 |
6,273 |
-2,836 |
35.39 |
41.68 |
35.22 |
-6.45 |
Collier |
-32,078 |
1,653 |
3,890 |
-2,237 |
29.82 |
34.88 |
29.95 |
-4.93 |
Bay |
-12,251 |
1,478 |
3,619 |
-2,141 |
28.99 |
27.94 |
31.49 |
3.55 |
Okaloosa |
-21,161 |
811 |
2,897 |
-2,086 |
21.87 |
25.02 |
23.11 |
-1.91 |
St. Johns |
-23,029 |
1,097 |
3,144 |
-2,047 |
25.86 |
30.95 |
29.60 |
-1.35 |
Clay |
-22,259 |
842 |
2,462 |
-1,620 |
25.48 |
26.89 |
24.62 |
-2.27 |
Brevard |
-20,787 |
3,550 |
5,063 |
-1,513 |
41.21 |
43.57 |
41.53 |
-2.04 |
Santa Rosa |
-17,435 |
571 |
2,070 |
-1,499 |
21.62 |
23.39 |
23.77 |
0.38 |
Sarasota |
-11,233 |
2,464 |
3,931 |
-1,467 |
38.53 |
46.26 |
44.06 |
-2.19 |
Pasco |
-8,367 |
3,880 |
5,307 |
-1,427 |
42.23 |
46.63 |
44.47 |
-2.16 |
Manatee |
-13,595 |
2,270 |
3,634 |
-1,364 |
38.44 |
43.71 |
40.23 |
-3.49 |
Sumter |
-18,068 |
718 |
2,028 |
-1,310 |
26.14 |
32.45 |
29.49 |
-2.96 |
Osceola |
13,864 |
2,754 |
1,461 |
1,293 |
65.33 |
62.36 |
63.21 |
0.86 |
Leon |
15,385 |
3,074 |
1,802 |
1,272 |
63.04 |
61.96 |
64.80 |
2.85 |
Walton |
-5,958 |
373 |
1,272 |
-899 |
22.67 |
23.69 |
22.72 |
-0.97 |
Alachua |
14,737 |
2,011 |
1,119 |
892 |
64.24 |
58.82 |
66.95 |
8.13 |
Nassau |
-10,227 |
339 |
1,222 |
-883 |
21.71 |
25.51 |
25.45 |
-0.06 |
Charlotte |
-10,860 |
1,071 |
1,950 |
-879 |
35.45 |
42.80 |
37.67 |
-5.13 |
Martin |
-14,121 |
692 |
1,553 |
-861 |
30.82 |
38.46 |
31.76 |
-6.70 |
Lake |
-11,498 |
1,844 |
2,652 |
-808 |
41.01 |
41.35 |
40.58 |
-0.77 |
Escambia |
-11,566 |
1,916 |
2,722 |
-806 |
41.31 |
39.61 |
39.93 |
0.31 |
Hillsborough |
17,206 |
9,871 |
9,105 |
766 |
52.01 |
53.38 |
53.80 |
0.42 |
Indian River |
-10,294 |
798 |
1,551 |
-753 |
33.97 |
38.75 |
34.38 |
-4.37 |
Highlands |
-3,867 |
892 |
1,575 |
-683 |
36.15 |
38.39 |
38.88 |
0.49 |
Marion |
-11,755 |
1,718 |
2,341 |
-623 |
42.32 |
41.80 |
40.78 |
-1.02 |
Citrus |
-9,774 |
568 |
1,140 |
-572 |
33.25 |
38.92 |
35.90 |
-3.02 |
St. Lucie |
5,454 |
2,239 |
1,734 |
505 |
56.35 |
53.96 |
54.95 |
0.99 |
Seminole |
-8,058 |
2,540 |
3,032 |
-492 |
45.58 |
46.72 |
45.37 |
-1.36 |
Gadsden |
6,219 |
630 |
149 |
481 |
80.87 |
70.41 |
82.56 |
12.15 |
Pinellas |
-1,254 |
6,451 |
6,902 |
-451 |
48.31 |
52.86 |
49.66 |
-3.20 |
Hernando |
-4,999 |
1,017 |
1,467 |
-450 |
40.94 |
45.70 |
43.41 |
-2.29 |
Duval |
-2,836 |
7,776 |
8,110 |
-334 |
48.94 |
48.17 |
49.11 |
0.94 |
Flagler |
-4,157 |
664 |
993 |
-329 |
40.07 |
46.25 |
41.83 |
-4.42 |
Columbia |
-1,750 |
833 |
1,106 |
-273 |
42.96 |
31.47 |
42.03 |
10.56 |
Volusia |
-3,999 |
3,170 |
2,964 |
206 |
51.67 |
49.41 |
47.92 |
-1.49 |
Polk |
-2,295 |
3,908 |
4,073 |
-165 |
48.96 |
46.56 |
48.78 |
2.22 |
Madison |
904 |
365 |
214 |
151 |
63.03 |
48.28 |
63.74 |
15.46 |
Gilchrist |
-777 |
92 |
229 |
-137 |
28.66 |
24.16 |
33.91 |
9.76 |
Gulf |
-534 |
161 |
294 |
-133 |
35.38 |
28.73 |
41.53 |
12.80 |
Jackson |
1,468 |
378 |
247 |
131 |
60.48 |
35.37 |
57.92 |
22.55 |
Hardee |
-543 |
192 |
307 |
-115 |
38.47 |
34.40 |
37.78 |
3.38 |
Levy |
-1,543 |
255 |
367 |
-112 |
40.99 |
33.67 |
37.74 |
4.08 |
Holmes |
-1,139 |
81 |
176 |
-95 |
31.51 |
15.44 |
33.41 |
17.97 |
Liberty |
707 |
105 |
23 |
82 |
82.03 |
29.05 |
79.63 |
50.59 |
Calhoun |
941 |
125 |
45 |
80 |
73.52 |
27.59 |
69.65 |
42.06 |
Baker |
-1,596 |
188 |
267 |
-79 |
41.31 |
20.47 |
37.06 |
16.59 |
Jefferson |
870 |
148 |
72 |
76 |
67.27 |
50.88 |
65.54 |
14.66 |
Suwannee |
-680 |
307 |
378 |
-71 |
44.81 |
27.26 |
44.35 |
17.09 |
Monroe |
-1,457 |
461 |
531 |
-70 |
46.47 |
50.22 |
45.57 |
-4.65 |
Franklin |
524 |
171 |
117 |
54 |
59.37 |
34.07 |
61.45 |
27.38 |
Lafayette |
217 |
105 |
63 |
42 |
62.50 |
20.48 |
59.89 |
39.42 |
Taylor |
601 |
183 |
143 |
40 |
56.13 |
30.66 |
58.33 |
27.67 |
Bradford |
-705 |
136 |
173 |
-37 |
44.01 |
28.80 |
42.01 |
13.21 |
DeSoto |
545 |
181 |
145 |
36 |
55.52 |
42.76 |
56.54 |
13.78 |
Okeechobee |
-1,022 |
187 |
223 |
-36 |
45.60 |
39.85 |
40.65 |
0.79 |
Wakulla |
71 |
237 |
206 |
31 |
53.49 |
35.78 |
50.55 |
14.77 |
Washington |
-1,165 |
113 |
143 |
-30 |
44.14 |
25.97 |
36.28 |
10.32 |
Hendry |
73 |
164 |
192 |
-28 |
46.06 |
47.01 |
50.75 |
3.74 |
Hamilton |
315 |
140 |
118 |
22 |
54.26 |
41.52 |
58.61 |
17.09 |
Glades |
14 |
50 |
31 |
19 |
61.72 |
40.61 |
50.82 |
10.21 |
Putnam |
-600 |
628 |
618 |
10 |
50.40 |
37.64 |
47.69 |
10.05 |
Union |
-163 |
143 |
134 |
9 |
51.62 |
25.17 |
45.34 |
20.17 |
Dixie |
-74 |
102 |
97 |
5 |
51.25 |
26.25 |
48.56 |
22.31 |
|
Yesterday's Results
Then, let’s put some historical perspective on the table. These are the results of the 2012 election, ordered by descending number of votes cast in each county. This order will be used in the following 2 tables as well. We can see that the Dems won the top 6 counties, but had trouble in many, if not most, of the other counties.
2012 Results
COUNTYNAME |
PRECINTS |
H_VOTES |
H_DEM_PCT |
H_REP_PCT |
H_OTHER_PCT |
State Totals |
6087 |
8474179 |
50.00 |
49.13 |
0.86 |
Miami-Dade |
799 |
878314 |
61.64 |
37.91 |
0.44 |
Broward |
792 |
756422 |
67.19 |
32.27 |
0.52 |
Palm Beach |
767 |
600721 |
58.20 |
41.18 |
0.61 |
Hillsborough |
347 |
542102 |
52.84 |
46.15 |
1.00 |
Orange |
227 |
466359 |
58.68 |
40.43 |
0.88 |
Pinellas |
298 |
457702 |
52.24 |
46.59 |
1.16 |
Duval |
197 |
411848 |
47.76 |
51.38 |
0.84 |
Brevard |
166 |
285559 |
43.07 |
55.78 |
1.14 |
Lee |
125 |
266166 |
41.38 |
57.91 |
0.69 |
Polk |
167 |
248683 |
46.09 |
52.90 |
0.99 |
Volusia |
125 |
234536 |
48.92 |
50.09 |
0.97 |
Pasco |
110 |
213573 |
46.00 |
52.64 |
1.34 |
Seminole |
80 |
208620 |
46.22 |
52.70 |
1.06 |
Sarasota |
99 |
207480 |
45.84 |
53.26 |
0.89 |
Marion |
127 |
161385 |
41.41 |
57.65 |
0.93 |
Manatee |
113 |
153491 |
43.32 |
55.78 |
0.88 |
Lake |
103 |
150811 |
40.97 |
58.11 |
0.90 |
Collier |
62 |
149112 |
34.67 |
64.72 |
0.59 |
Escambia |
79 |
148502 |
39.18 |
59.73 |
1.08 |
Leon |
134 |
148353 |
61.25 |
37.61 |
1.12 |
St. Lucie |
65 |
123027 |
53.54 |
45.68 |
0.77 |
Alachua |
63 |
120418 |
57.88 |
40.52 |
1.59 |
St. Johns |
46 |
114795 |
30.65 |
68.39 |
0.95 |
Osceola |
71 |
108698 |
61.85 |
37.34 |
0.79 |
Clay |
48 |
96589 |
26.66 |
72.49 |
0.83 |
Okaloosa |
52 |
94798 |
24.70 |
74.01 |
1.27 |
Charlotte |
79 |
84682 |
42.40 |
56.67 |
0.92 |
Hernando |
39 |
83667 |
45.21 |
53.71 |
1.07 |
Bay |
44 |
79861 |
27.61 |
71.21 |
1.16 |
Martin |
31 |
78873 |
38.17 |
61.08 |
0.73 |
Santa Rosa |
41 |
76846 |
23.12 |
75.71 |
1.16 |
Citrus |
31 |
73935 |
38.49 |
60.40 |
1.09 |
Indian River |
37 |
71464 |
38.46 |
60.79 |
0.73 |
Sumter |
24 |
60479 |
32.28 |
67.20 |
0.51 |
Flagler |
30 |
50595 |
45.86 |
53.30 |
0.82 |
Highlands |
25 |
42444 |
38.04 |
61.05 |
0.89 |
Nassau |
16 |
40528 |
25.29 |
73.84 |
0.85 |
Monroe |
33 |
39057 |
49.68 |
49.24 |
1.07 |
Putnam |
39 |
31324 |
37.24 |
61.69 |
1.05 |
Walton |
21 |
28494 |
23.41 |
75.41 |
1.16 |
Columbia |
23 |
27163 |
31.15 |
67.84 |
1.00 |
Gadsden |
25 |
22499 |
70.09 |
29.46 |
0.44 |
Jackson |
14 |
20941 |
35.06 |
64.07 |
0.86 |
Levy |
13 |
18399 |
33.25 |
65.51 |
1.22 |
Suwannee |
16 |
17629 |
26.94 |
71.88 |
1.16 |
Wakulla |
12 |
14660 |
35.30 |
63.36 |
1.33 |
Okeechobee |
11 |
12324 |
39.40 |
59.46 |
1.13 |
Bradford |
14 |
11635 |
28.57 |
70.64 |
0.78 |
Baker |
9 |
11368 |
20.32 |
78.94 |
0.72 |
Washington |
16 |
10999 |
25.63 |
73.07 |
1.28 |
Hendry |
10 |
10185 |
46.64 |
52.57 |
0.77 |
DeSoto |
15 |
9865 |
42.31 |
56.63 |
1.05 |
Taylor |
14 |
9120 |
30.30 |
68.51 |
1.17 |
Madison |
11 |
8715 |
47.91 |
51.33 |
0.74 |
Holmes |
8 |
8274 |
15.27 |
83.62 |
1.09 |
Gilchrist |
10 |
7909 |
23.83 |
74.81 |
1.35 |
Jefferson |
15 |
7808 |
50.52 |
48.77 |
0.70 |
Hardee |
12 |
7226 |
34.08 |
64.98 |
0.92 |
Gulf |
9 |
7108 |
28.33 |
70.27 |
1.39 |
Dixie |
10 |
6941 |
25.90 |
72.78 |
1.31 |
Calhoun |
15 |
6152 |
27.04 |
70.96 |
1.98 |
Franklin |
8 |
5474 |
33.70 |
65.21 |
1.07 |
Hamilton |
8 |
5407 |
41.20 |
58.03 |
0.75 |
Union |
11 |
5393 |
24.82 |
73.79 |
1.37 |
Glades |
13 |
3989 |
40.18 |
58.76 |
1.05 |
Lafayette |
5 |
3399 |
20.21 |
78.49 |
1.29 |
Liberty |
8 |
3284 |
28.68 |
70.06 |
1.24 |
|
Now, let’s take a look at the Early Voting results.
Some definitions are appropriate:
- EV_VOTES means the number of early votes cast in person to date
- VBM_VOTES means the number of vote-by-mail votes received to date
- VBMU_VOTES means the number of vote-by-mail ballots sent but not yet received
- VBM_RATIO means the percentage of all vote-by-mail ballots sent which have already been received
- V_VOTES means the number of votes already ‘locked in’ by either EV or VBM
- V_RATIO means the ratio of ‘locked in’ votes compared to 2012 final totals
- V_DEM_PCT means the percentage of locked in votes casts by Dems
- V_REP_PCT means the percentage of locked in votes casts by Reps
- V_OTHER_PCT means the percentage of locked in votes casts by Others
We can see that almost 65% of the VBM ballots sent out have already been received state wide. Still lots to be submitted (with over 80k more Dem than Rep outstanding) with less than 1 week remaining until voting day. We can also see that overall vote counts so far are over 52 % of all votes cast in 2012. I could not find 2012 EV data, so I can not compare this year’s progress to the EV totals at this point in that cycle.
Early Voting Results
COUNTYNAME |
TOT_2012 |
EV_VOTES |
VBM_VOTES |
VBMU_VOTES |
VBM_RATIO |
V_VOTES |
V_RATIO |
V_DEM_PCT |
V_REP_PCT |
V_OTHER_PCT |
State Totals |
8,474,179 |
2,297,874 |
2,168,750 |
1,173,799 |
64.88 |
4,466,624 |
52.70 |
39.88 |
40.27 |
19.83 |
Miami-Dade |
878,314 |
270,092 |
237,284 |
164,846 |
59.00 |
507,376 |
57.76 |
44.38 |
31.47 |
24.13 |
Broward |
756,422 |
246,331 |
142,796 |
134,982 |
51.40 |
389,127 |
51.44 |
57.01 |
22.66 |
20.32 |
Palm Beach |
600,721 |
140,036 |
112,726 |
70,586 |
61.49 |
252,762 |
42.07 |
48.55 |
29.25 |
22.18 |
Hillsborough |
542,102 |
134,470 |
150,044 |
82,246 |
64.59 |
284,514 |
52.48 |
42.83 |
36.78 |
20.38 |
Orange |
466,359 |
139,141 |
116,948 |
94,024 |
55.43 |
256,089 |
54.91 |
47.27 |
30.55 |
22.16 |
Pinellas |
457,702 |
36,056 |
200,877 |
97,201 |
67.39 |
236,933 |
51.76 |
38.89 |
39.42 |
21.67 |
Duval |
411,848 |
128,903 |
57,400 |
42,093 |
57.69 |
186,303 |
45.23 |
42.02 |
43.54 |
14.43 |
Brevard |
285,559 |
75,611 |
76,697 |
39,024 |
66.27 |
152,308 |
53.33 |
33.45 |
47.10 |
19.43 |
Lee |
266,166 |
64,452 |
137,042 |
41,398 |
76.80 |
201,494 |
75.70 |
27.69 |
50.92 |
21.37 |
Polk |
248,683 |
51,355 |
64,887 |
30,581 |
67.96 |
116,242 |
46.74 |
39.30 |
41.27 |
19.41 |
Volusia |
234,536 |
62,013 |
60,245 |
31,136 |
65.92 |
122,258 |
52.12 |
37.65 |
40.92 |
21.41 |
Pasco |
213,573 |
37,994 |
58,864 |
21,795 |
72.97 |
96,858 |
45.35 |
34.75 |
43.39 |
21.85 |
Seminole |
208,620 |
63,834 |
46,916 |
30,601 |
60.52 |
110,750 |
53.08 |
35.58 |
42.85 |
21.55 |
Sarasota |
207,480 |
52,132 |
67,092 |
17,418 |
79.38 |
119,224 |
57.46 |
34.95 |
44.37 |
20.66 |
Marion |
161,385 |
44,262 |
32,333 |
12,110 |
72.75 |
76,595 |
47.46 |
33.94 |
49.29 |
16.76 |
Manatee |
153,491 |
29,308 |
57,599 |
21,058 |
73.22 |
86,907 |
56.62 |
32.18 |
47.82 |
19.99 |
Lake |
150,811 |
49,210 |
26,270 |
13,592 |
65.90 |
75,480 |
50.04 |
32.82 |
48.05 |
19.11 |
Collier |
149,112 |
50,218 |
49,929 |
15,608 |
76.18 |
100,147 |
67.16 |
23.92 |
55.95 |
20.12 |
Escambia |
148,502 |
35,186 |
31,581 |
14,553 |
68.45 |
66,767 |
44.96 |
34.32 |
51.64 |
14.02 |
Leon |
148,353 |
36,767 |
22,219 |
13,884 |
61.54 |
58,986 |
39.76 |
57.08 |
31.00 |
11.90 |
St. Lucie |
123,027 |
34,257 |
34,683 |
14,894 |
69.95 |
68,940 |
56.03 |
43.92 |
36.01 |
20.05 |
Alachua |
120,418 |
30,634 |
21,269 |
12,800 |
62.42 |
51,903 |
43.10 |
56.06 |
27.67 |
16.25 |
St. Johns |
114,795 |
47,535 |
20,664 |
11,583 |
64.08 |
68,199 |
59.40 |
24.50 |
58.27 |
17.22 |
Osceola |
108,698 |
34,607 |
34,313 |
23,219 |
59.64 |
68,920 |
63.40 |
48.11 |
28.00 |
23.87 |
Clay |
96,589 |
35,861 |
16,399 |
8,211 |
66.63 |
52,260 |
54.10 |
20.65 |
63.24 |
16.09 |
Okaloosa |
94,798 |
28,928 |
17,464 |
9,715 |
64.25 |
46,392 |
48.93 |
19.60 |
65.21 |
15.18 |
Charlotte |
84,682 |
24,881 |
30,710 |
8,373 |
78.57 |
55,591 |
65.64 |
29.84 |
49.37 |
20.77 |
Hernando |
83,667 |
16,317 |
30,457 |
9,275 |
76.65 |
46,774 |
55.90 |
35.23 |
45.92 |
18.84 |
Bay |
79,861 |
23,117 |
15,012 |
7,468 |
66.77 |
38,129 |
47.74 |
27.33 |
59.46 |
13.20 |
Martin |
78,873 |
22,561 |
25,146 |
10,129 |
71.28 |
47,707 |
60.48 |
25.77 |
55.37 |
18.84 |
Santa Rosa |
76,846 |
24,279 |
14,763 |
7,738 |
65.61 |
39,042 |
50.80 |
20.24 |
64.90 |
14.84 |
Citrus |
73,935 |
20,957 |
21,750 |
6,647 |
76.59 |
42,707 |
57.76 |
29.14 |
52.02 |
18.82 |
Indian River |
71,464 |
22,475 |
18,554 |
8,340 |
68.98 |
41,029 |
57.41 |
27.61 |
52.70 |
19.68 |
Sumter |
60,479 |
36,057 |
18,040 |
4,190 |
81.15 |
54,097 |
89.44 |
24.01 |
57.41 |
18.56 |
Flagler |
50,595 |
20,794 |
10,993 |
4,691 |
70.09 |
31,787 |
62.82 |
33.46 |
46.53 |
20.00 |
Highlands |
42,444 |
11,002 |
9,570 |
3,288 |
74.42 |
20,572 |
48.46 |
32.84 |
51.63 |
15.52 |
Nassau |
40,528 |
15,881 |
8,238 |
4,061 |
66.98 |
24,119 |
59.51 |
21.98 |
64.38 |
13.63 |
Monroe |
39,057 |
8,556 |
11,952 |
5,330 |
69.15 |
20,508 |
52.50 |
36.61 |
43.72 |
19.65 |
Putnam |
31,324 |
9,406 |
5,260 |
2,402 |
68.65 |
14,666 |
46.82 |
42.29 |
46.38 |
11.31 |
Walton |
28,494 |
6,884 |
5,710 |
2,255 |
71.68 |
12,594 |
44.19 |
19.70 |
67.01 |
13.27 |
Columbia |
27,163 |
7,659 |
4,737 |
1,947 |
70.87 |
12,396 |
45.63 |
37.18 |
51.29 |
11.51 |
Gadsden |
22,499 |
6,692 |
3,417 |
1,697 |
66.81 |
10,109 |
44.93 |
77.99 |
16.48 |
5.51 |
Jackson |
20,941 |
6,386 |
3,463 |
1,273 |
73.12 |
9,849 |
47.03 |
54.52 |
39.61 |
5.85 |
Levy |
18,399 |
3,054 |
4,191 |
1,608 |
72.27 |
7,245 |
39.37 |
32.80 |
54.10 |
13.08 |
Suwannee |
17,629 |
3,209 |
3,455 |
1,475 |
70.08 |
6,664 |
37.80 |
40.09 |
50.30 |
9.60 |
Wakulla |
14,660 |
4,784 |
2,455 |
1,026 |
70.52 |
7,239 |
49.37 |
45.29 |
44.31 |
10.38 |
Okeechobee |
12,324 |
4,022 |
2,167 |
743 |
74.46 |
6,189 |
50.21 |
35.88 |
52.39 |
11.71 |
Bradford |
11,635 |
2,800 |
2,043 |
768 |
72.67 |
4,843 |
41.62 |
38.24 |
52.79 |
8.96 |
Baker |
11,368 |
5,099 |
1,550 |
639 |
70.80 |
6,649 |
58.48 |
34.38 |
58.38 |
7.23 |
Washington |
10,999 |
2,531 |
2,014 |
983 |
67.20 |
4,545 |
41.32 |
33.90 |
59.53 |
6.55 |
Hendry |
10,185 |
3,893 |
1,428 |
754 |
65.44 |
5,321 |
52.24 |
46.26 |
44.89 |
8.83 |
DeSoto |
9,865 |
2,955 |
1,823 |
677 |
72.92 |
4,778 |
48.43 |
49.28 |
37.88 |
12.82 |
Taylor |
9,120 |
1,992 |
1,814 |
753 |
70.66 |
3,806 |
41.73 |
55.28 |
39.49 |
5.22 |
Madison |
8,715 |
2,604 |
921 |
421 |
68.62 |
3,525 |
40.44 |
59.48 |
33.84 |
6.66 |
Holmes |
8,274 |
1,932 |
1,694 |
602 |
73.78 |
3,626 |
43.82 |
31.63 |
63.04 |
5.32 |
Gilchrist |
7,909 |
1,252 |
1,427 |
633 |
69.27 |
2,679 |
33.87 |
30.57 |
59.57 |
9.85 |
Jefferson |
7,808 |
1,989 |
1,052 |
472 |
69.02 |
3,041 |
38.94 |
60.30 |
31.70 |
7.99 |
Hardee |
7,226 |
1,850 |
595 |
422 |
58.50 |
2,445 |
33.83 |
34.35 |
56.56 |
9.07 |
Gulf |
7,108 |
2,197 |
1,206 |
437 |
73.40 |
3,403 |
47.87 |
38.46 |
54.15 |
7.37 |
Dixie |
6,941 |
1,420 |
1,439 |
616 |
70.02 |
2,859 |
41.19 |
43.61 |
46.20 |
10.17 |
Calhoun |
6,152 |
1,801 |
769 |
378 |
67.04 |
2,570 |
41.77 |
64.90 |
28.28 |
6.80 |
Franklin |
5,474 |
1,378 |
1,184 |
603 |
66.25 |
2,562 |
46.80 |
54.87 |
34.42 |
10.69 |
Hamilton |
5,407 |
884 |
1,099 |
451 |
70.90 |
1,983 |
36.67 |
54.05 |
38.17 |
7.76 |
Union |
5,393 |
1,201 |
677 |
429 |
61.21 |
1,878 |
34.82 |
42.22 |
50.90 |
6.86 |
Glades |
3,989 |
391 |
580 |
280 |
67.44 |
971 |
24.34 |
44.69 |
43.25 |
12.04 |
Lafayette |
3,399 |
647 |
496 |
190 |
72.30 |
1,143 |
33.62 |
57.48 |
38.49 |
4.02 |
Liberty |
3,284 |
892 |
358 |
177 |
66.91 |
1,250 |
38.06 |
76.00 |
19.44 |
4.56 |
|
Now, I want to some light on the large (about 26.7%) of registered voters who are not major party supporters. Based on state-provided registrations numbers, these voters comprise over a quarter of the voting population but only make up about 19.8% of those who have voted so far.
The table below shows the 10 counties with the highest percentage of non-major voters. Of these counties, major party voters favor Dems 5 times, Reps 3 times and are neutral with a Red lean 2 times. The 5 combined Rep and neutral counties are all 77+% white, while the 5 Dem counties range from 18- 68% white. No surprises here, but it is nice to see hard data confirming the conventional wisdom.
Also, the turnout so far is line with registration patterns, except where Volusia County is getting higher Rep turnout as a ‘neutral’ county. Alas, there seems to be little evidence of Reps staying home, so we need to hope they have a higher vote leakage to Hillary or 3rd-parties (and/or that the non-major voters lean towards Hillary).
Non-Major Party Voting
COUNTY |
TOTAL |
WHITE |
BLACK |
HISPANIC |
OTHERS |
DEM |
REP |
OTHER |
VOTED_2016 |
D_PCT |
R_PCT |
O_PCT |
State Totals |
12,863,773 |
64.24 |
13.39 |
15.73 |
6.62 |
37.91 |
35.37 |
26.70 |
4,466,624 |
39.88 |
40.27 |
19.83 |
Osceola |
196,326 |
38.88 |
8.40 |
45.27 |
7.43 |
43.72 |
23.98 |
32.29 |
68,920 |
48.11 |
28.00 |
23.87 |
Miami-Dade |
1,379,230 |
18.36 |
17.35 |
56.93 |
7.34 |
42.47 |
27.00 |
30.52 |
507,376 |
44.38 |
31.47 |
24.13 |
Orange |
776,488 |
48.52 |
17.29 |
23.55 |
10.63 |
42.61 |
27.44 |
29.94 |
256,089 |
47.27 |
30.55 |
22.16 |
Volusia |
363,438 |
77.92 |
8.94 |
7.99 |
5.12 |
35.45 |
35.17 |
29.37 |
122,258 |
37.65 |
40.92 |
21.41 |
Palm Beach |
901,642 |
67.95 |
13.76 |
10.96 |
7.31 |
42.60 |
28.27 |
29.12 |
252,762 |
48.55 |
29.25 |
22.18 |
Pasco |
336,040 |
81.68 |
4.53 |
8.49 |
5.28 |
31.99 |
38.91 |
29.08 |
96,858 |
34.75 |
43.39 |
21.85 |
Monroe |
54,749 |
82.35 |
3.41 |
10.28 |
3.94 |
32.73 |
38.29 |
28.96 |
20,508 |
36.61 |
43.72 |
19.65 |
Hillsborough |
849,838 |
59.51 |
15.66 |
16.70 |
8.10 |
39.52 |
31.51 |
28.95 |
284,514 |
42.83 |
36.78 |
20.38 |
Lee |
423,938 |
80.50 |
5.50 |
9.52 |
4.46 |
27.53 |
43.81 |
28.65 |
201,494 |
27.69 |
50.92 |
21.37 |
Pinellas |
648,791 |
80.71 |
8.54 |
4.63 |
6.09 |
35.85 |
35.62 |
28.52 |
236,933 |
38.89 |
39.42 |
21.67 |
|
Finally, let’s see if we can see any trend emerging.
More definitions are appropriate:
- H_DEM_SHARE means the Dem share of the 2012 2-party total vote
- V_DEM_SHARE means the Dem share of the 2016 2-party votes cast so far
- TREND means the difference between 2012 and 2016 Dem shares of 2-party votes
- H_MAJOR_PCT means the 2-party share of the 2012 total vote
- V_DEM_PCT means the percentage of 2016 votes cast so far by registered Dems
- V_REP_PCT means the percentage of 2016 votes cast so far by registered Reps
- V_MAJOR_PCT means the 2-party share of 2016 votes cast so far
The ‘trend’ values don’t seem to show any noticeable trend in either direction for the larger counties, assuming voters from the 2 major parties vote along party lines. However, of the top 10 counties as listed, 4 show a more than 2% gain by the Reps and only 3 show a more than 2% gain by the Dems. Polk, Duval and Pinellas counties are all within 1.5% of 50/50 and trending away from 2012 results.
The trends are definitely up in the smaller counties with under 28,000 voters in 2012, but not enough to carry us. It seems these counties strongly prefer Hillary over Obama, but not enough to go strongly Blue (or, as has been suggested elsewhere, are full of Dixiecrats and will continue to vote Red).
The rest of the ‘middle’ counties (28k to 240k 2012 voters) are trending more Rep than they were in 2012 — not healthy in an already divisive political environment.
And the snapshot takeaway — the Dem share state wide is down 0.68% (compared to 0.68% yesterday), which is small but enough (if it holds) to flip the EC votes to the Reps. (shaking my head!) We need this trend to turn around again after 2 modest slips.
Let’s hope the trend holds or improves in the large counties, at least stays as is in the smaller ones (sans Dixiecrats), and picks up in the ‘middle’ counties where the bulk of the Rep advantage lies!
COUNTYNAME |
TOT_2012 |
H_DEM_SHARE |
V_2016 |
V_DEM_SHARE |
TREND |
H_DEM_PCT |
H_REP_PCT |
H_MAJOR_PCT |
V_DEM_PCT |
V_REP_PCT |
V_MAJOR_PCT |
State Totals |
8,474,179 |
50.44 |
4,466,624 |
49.76 |
-0.68 |
50.00 |
49.13 |
99.13 |
39.88 |
40.27 |
80.15 |
Miami-Dade |
878,314 |
61.92 |
507,376 |
58.51 |
-3.41 |
61.64 |
37.91 |
99.55 |
44.38 |
31.47 |
75.85 |
Broward |
756,422 |
67.55 |
389,127 |
71.56 |
4.00 |
67.19 |
32.27 |
99.46 |
57.01 |
22.66 |
79.67 |
Palm Beach |
600,721 |
58.56 |
252,762 |
62.40 |
3.84 |
58.20 |
41.18 |
99.38 |
48.55 |
29.25 |
77.80 |
Hillsborough |
542,102 |
53.38 |
284,514 |
53.80 |
0.42 |
52.84 |
46.15 |
98.99 |
42.83 |
36.78 |
79.61 |
Orange |
466,359 |
59.21 |
256,089 |
60.74 |
1.54 |
58.68 |
40.43 |
99.11 |
47.27 |
30.55 |
77.82 |
Pinellas |
457,702 |
52.86 |
236,933 |
49.66 |
-3.20 |
52.24 |
46.59 |
98.83 |
38.89 |
39.42 |
78.31 |
Duval |
411,848 |
48.17 |
186,303 |
49.11 |
0.94 |
47.76 |
51.38 |
99.14 |
42.02 |
43.54 |
85.56 |
Brevard |
285,559 |
43.57 |
152,308 |
41.53 |
-2.04 |
43.07 |
55.78 |
98.85 |
33.45 |
47.10 |
80.55 |
Lee |
266,166 |
41.68 |
201,494 |
35.22 |
-6.45 |
41.38 |
57.91 |
99.29 |
27.69 |
50.92 |
78.61 |
Polk |
248,683 |
46.56 |
116,242 |
48.78 |
2.22 |
46.09 |
52.90 |
98.99 |
39.30 |
41.27 |
80.57 |
Volusia |
234,536 |
49.41 |
122,258 |
47.92 |
-1.49 |
48.92 |
50.09 |
99.01 |
37.65 |
40.92 |
78.57 |
Pasco |
213,573 |
46.63 |
96,858 |
44.47 |
-2.16 |
46.00 |
52.64 |
98.64 |
34.75 |
43.39 |
78.14 |
Seminole |
208,620 |
46.72 |
110,750 |
45.37 |
-1.36 |
46.22 |
52.70 |
98.92 |
35.58 |
42.85 |
78.43 |
Sarasota |
207,480 |
46.26 |
119,224 |
44.06 |
-2.19 |
45.84 |
53.26 |
99.10 |
34.95 |
44.37 |
79.32 |
Marion |
161,385 |
41.80 |
76,595 |
40.78 |
-1.02 |
41.41 |
57.65 |
99.06 |
33.94 |
49.29 |
83.23 |
Manatee |
153,491 |
43.71 |
86,907 |
40.23 |
-3.49 |
43.32 |
55.78 |
99.10 |
32.18 |
47.82 |
80.00 |
Lake |
150,811 |
41.35 |
75,480 |
40.58 |
-0.77 |
40.97 |
58.11 |
99.08 |
32.82 |
48.05 |
80.87 |
Collier |
149,112 |
34.88 |
100,147 |
29.95 |
-4.93 |
34.67 |
64.72 |
99.39 |
23.92 |
55.95 |
79.87 |
Escambia |
148,502 |
39.61 |
66,767 |
39.93 |
0.31 |
39.18 |
59.73 |
98.91 |
34.32 |
51.64 |
85.96 |
Leon |
148,353 |
61.96 |
58,986 |
64.80 |
2.85 |
61.25 |
37.61 |
98.86 |
57.08 |
31.00 |
88.08 |
St. Lucie |
123,027 |
53.96 |
68,940 |
54.95 |
0.99 |
53.54 |
45.68 |
99.22 |
43.92 |
36.01 |
79.93 |
Alachua |
120,418 |
58.82 |
51,903 |
66.95 |
8.13 |
57.88 |
40.52 |
98.40 |
56.06 |
27.67 |
83.73 |
St. Johns |
114,795 |
30.95 |
68,199 |
29.60 |
-1.35 |
30.65 |
68.39 |
99.04 |
24.50 |
58.27 |
82.77 |
Osceola |
108,698 |
62.36 |
68,920 |
63.21 |
0.86 |
61.85 |
37.34 |
99.19 |
48.11 |
28.00 |
76.11 |
Clay |
96,589 |
26.89 |
52,260 |
24.62 |
-2.27 |
26.66 |
72.49 |
99.15 |
20.65 |
63.24 |
83.89 |
Okaloosa |
94,798 |
25.02 |
46,392 |
23.11 |
-1.91 |
24.70 |
74.01 |
98.71 |
19.60 |
65.21 |
84.81 |
Charlotte |
84,682 |
42.80 |
55,591 |
37.67 |
-5.13 |
42.40 |
56.67 |
99.07 |
29.84 |
49.37 |
79.21 |
Hernando |
83,667 |
45.70 |
46,774 |
43.41 |
-2.29 |
45.21 |
53.71 |
98.92 |
35.23 |
45.92 |
81.15 |
Bay |
79,861 |
27.94 |
38,129 |
31.49 |
3.55 |
27.61 |
71.21 |
98.82 |
27.33 |
59.46 |
86.79 |
Martin |
78,873 |
38.46 |
47,707 |
31.76 |
-6.70 |
38.17 |
61.08 |
99.25 |
25.77 |
55.37 |
81.14 |
Santa Rosa |
76,846 |
23.39 |
39,042 |
23.77 |
0.38 |
23.12 |
75.71 |
98.83 |
20.24 |
64.90 |
85.14 |
Citrus |
73,935 |
38.92 |
42,707 |
35.90 |
-3.02 |
38.49 |
60.40 |
98.89 |
29.14 |
52.02 |
81.16 |
Indian River |
71,464 |
38.75 |
41,029 |
34.38 |
-4.37 |
38.46 |
60.79 |
99.25 |
27.61 |
52.70 |
80.31 |
Sumter |
60,479 |
32.45 |
54,097 |
29.49 |
-2.96 |
32.28 |
67.20 |
99.48 |
24.01 |
57.41 |
81.42 |
Flagler |
50,595 |
46.25 |
31,787 |
41.83 |
-4.42 |
45.86 |
53.30 |
99.16 |
33.46 |
46.53 |
79.99 |
Highlands |
42,444 |
38.39 |
20,572 |
38.88 |
0.49 |
38.04 |
61.05 |
99.09 |
32.84 |
51.63 |
84.47 |
Nassau |
40,528 |
25.51 |
24,119 |
25.45 |
-0.06 |
25.29 |
73.84 |
99.13 |
21.98 |
64.38 |
86.36 |
Monroe |
39,057 |
50.22 |
20,508 |
45.57 |
-4.65 |
49.68 |
49.24 |
98.92 |
36.61 |
43.72 |
80.33 |
Putnam |
31,324 |
37.64 |
14,666 |
47.69 |
10.05 |
37.24 |
61.69 |
98.93 |
42.29 |
46.38 |
88.67 |
Walton |
28,494 |
23.69 |
12,594 |
22.72 |
-0.97 |
23.41 |
75.41 |
98.82 |
19.70 |
67.01 |
86.71 |
Columbia |
27,163 |
31.47 |
12,396 |
42.03 |
10.56 |
31.15 |
67.84 |
98.99 |
37.18 |
51.29 |
88.47 |
Gadsden |
22,499 |
70.41 |
10,109 |
82.56 |
12.15 |
70.09 |
29.46 |
99.55 |
77.99 |
16.48 |
94.47 |
Jackson |
20,941 |
35.37 |
9,849 |
57.92 |
22.55 |
35.06 |
64.07 |
99.13 |
54.52 |
39.61 |
94.13 |
Levy |
18,399 |
33.67 |
7,245 |
37.74 |
4.08 |
33.25 |
65.51 |
98.76 |
32.80 |
54.10 |
86.90 |
Suwannee |
17,629 |
27.26 |
6,664 |
44.35 |
17.09 |
26.94 |
71.88 |
98.82 |
40.09 |
50.30 |
90.39 |
Wakulla |
14,660 |
35.78 |
7,239 |
50.55 |
14.77 |
35.30 |
63.36 |
98.66 |
45.29 |
44.31 |
89.60 |
Okeechobee |
12,324 |
39.85 |
6,189 |
40.65 |
0.79 |
39.40 |
59.46 |
98.86 |
35.88 |
52.39 |
88.27 |
Bradford |
11,635 |
28.80 |
4,843 |
42.01 |
13.21 |
28.57 |
70.64 |
99.21 |
38.24 |
52.79 |
91.03 |
Baker |
11,368 |
20.47 |
6,649 |
37.06 |
16.59 |
20.32 |
78.94 |
99.26 |
34.38 |
58.38 |
92.76 |
Washington |
10,999 |
25.97 |
4,545 |
36.28 |
10.32 |
25.63 |
73.07 |
98.70 |
33.90 |
59.53 |
93.43 |
Hendry |
10,185 |
47.01 |
5,321 |
50.75 |
3.74 |
46.64 |
52.57 |
99.21 |
46.26 |
44.89 |
91.15 |
DeSoto |
9,865 |
42.76 |
4,778 |
56.54 |
13.78 |
42.31 |
56.63 |
98.94 |
49.28 |
37.88 |
87.16 |
Taylor |
9,120 |
30.66 |
3,806 |
58.33 |
27.67 |
30.30 |
68.51 |
98.81 |
55.28 |
39.49 |
94.77 |
Madison |
8,715 |
48.28 |
3,525 |
63.74 |
15.46 |
47.91 |
51.33 |
99.24 |
59.48 |
33.84 |
93.32 |
Holmes |
8,274 |
15.44 |
3,626 |
33.41 |
17.97 |
15.27 |
83.62 |
98.89 |
31.63 |
63.04 |
94.67 |
Gilchrist |
7,909 |
24.16 |
2,679 |
33.91 |
9.76 |
23.83 |
74.81 |
98.64 |
30.57 |
59.57 |
90.14 |
Jefferson |
7,808 |
50.88 |
3,041 |
65.54 |
14.66 |
50.52 |
48.77 |
99.29 |
60.30 |
31.70 |
92.00 |
Hardee |
7,226 |
34.40 |
2,445 |
37.78 |
3.38 |
34.08 |
64.98 |
99.06 |
34.35 |
56.56 |
90.91 |
Gulf |
7,108 |
28.73 |
3,403 |
41.53 |
12.80 |
28.33 |
70.27 |
98.60 |
38.46 |
54.15 |
92.61 |
Dixie |
6,941 |
26.25 |
2,859 |
48.56 |
22.31 |
25.90 |
72.78 |
98.68 |
43.61 |
46.20 |
89.81 |
Calhoun |
6,152 |
27.59 |
2,570 |
69.65 |
42.06 |
27.04 |
70.96 |
98.00 |
64.90 |
28.28 |
93.18 |
Franklin |
5,474 |
34.07 |
2,562 |
61.45 |
27.38 |
33.70 |
65.21 |
98.91 |
54.87 |
34.42 |
89.29 |
Hamilton |
5,407 |
41.52 |
1,983 |
58.61 |
17.09 |
41.20 |
58.03 |
99.23 |
54.05 |
38.17 |
92.22 |
Union |
5,393 |
25.17 |
1,878 |
45.34 |
20.17 |
24.82 |
73.79 |
98.61 |
42.22 |
50.90 |
93.12 |
Glades |
3,989 |
40.61 |
971 |
50.82 |
10.21 |
40.18 |
58.76 |
98.94 |
44.69 |
43.25 |
87.94 |
Lafayette |
3,399 |
20.48 |
1,143 |
59.89 |
39.42 |
20.21 |
78.49 |
98.70 |
57.48 |
38.49 |
95.97 |
Liberty |
3,284 |
29.05 |
1,250 |
79.63 |
50.59 |
28.68 |
70.06 |
98.74 |
76.00 |
19.44 |
95.44 |
|
Early Voting Trends
For those of you who, like me, are interested in the Florida race but are not familiar with the location of the various counties, I refer you to this map of Florida.
FWIW, the 10 largest cites (municipal, not regional) are located in 9 counties, as shown below. The table is ordered by the size of the largest city in the county. Remember, though, that there are other moderate to large counties that do not have any of the largest cities within them — rather they have a significant number of smaller cities.
The data clearly shows that the counties with the largest cities are not changing their voting patterns much — good thing they are mostly solid Dem or neutral, with Lee being the significant exception. That said, Miami-Dade, Pinellas and Lee are slipping the wrong way. I guess this fits in with why Florida is still considered by some to be a toss-up.
County |
Largest Cities |
2016 Dem share of
votes in County
|
Trend |
2012 tot votes |
Counties with largest cities
Duval |
Jacksonville |
49.11 |
0.94 |
411,848 |
Miami-Dade |
Miami, Hialeah |
58.51 |
-3.41 |
878,214 |
Hillsborough |
Tampa |
53.80 |
0.42 |
542,102 |
Orange |
Orlando |
60.74 |
1.54 |
466,359 |
Pinellas |
St. Petersburg |
49.66 |
-3.20 |
457,502 |
Leon |
Tallahassee |
64.80 |
2.85 |
148,353 |
Broward |
Fort Lauderdale |
71.56 |
4.00 |
756,422 |
St. Lucie |
Port St. Lucie |
54.95 |
0.99 |
123,027 |
Lee |
Cape Coral |
35.22 |
-6.45 |
266,166 |