NV-Sen: If there’s one state where it’s not a bad idea to bet against the polls, it’s Nevada. No, that’s not a lazy gambling joke: As we’ve noted previously, pollsters underestimated Democrats in 2008, 2010, and 2012. Nevada has both a large population of people who work nights (when pollsters typically make their calls) as well as a large community of Spanish speakers, and it’s also a state with a fast-growing population. All of these factors combine to make it tough to accurately survey. This time around, polls show a tight race for president and for the Senate, but the early voting numbers strongly indicate that Team Blue is in even stronger shape on the ground.
As Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston has discussed at length, Nevada Democrats voted early at a far greater clip than Republicans, amassing a formidable 6-point lead in ballots returned, which is just under what it was in 2012. Two-thirds of Nevadan votes were cast before Election Day in 2012, so it will be very tough for the GOP to make up the difference. That’s not just bad news for Donald Trump. It’s also trouble for GOP Rep. Joe Heck, who faces Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto in the race for Harry Reid’s open Senate seat. Latino turnout also appears to be notably higher than it was in 2012, which makes the GOP’s path to victory even tougher.
Heck isn’t sunk yet, though. In 2012, Republican Sen. Dean Heller defeated Democrat Shelley Berkley 46-45 as Obama was winning the Silver State 52-46. If Heck can run far enough ahead of Trump, he could well survive. However, the polls indicate this isn’t happening. While the Daily Kos Elections polling average has Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump tied 45-45, Cortez Masto actually leads 45-43. And it’s worth noting that in 2012, the final HuffPost Pollster average found Heller ahead 47-43 while Obama led 50-47. While the polls did underestimate both Democrats, they were accurate in finding Berkley running considerably behind Obama.
Of course, it’s always possible the polls are right this time around, or even that they’re lowballing the GOP, but the early numbers tell another story. We believe Heck is the underdog, and we’re moving this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic. Heck can still pull off a win, but we’ve gotten to the point that a Heck victory would be a real surprise.
OR-Gov: The last time the GOP won Oregon's governorship was 1982, when Republican Vic Atiyeh was re-elected over future Gov. Ted Kulongoski. That streak is going to last at least another two years, as Democratic Gov. Kate Brown should have no trouble dispatching Republican Bud Pierce on Tuesday. Polls give both Brown and Hillary Clinton clear leads, and tellingly, no major outside groups on either side ever got involved here. Brown is running to fill the final two years of ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber’s term, so she’ll need to face the voters again in 2018. Maybe the GOP will be able to put up a stronger fight in two years, but for 2016, Daily Kos Elections is moving this contest from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
WA-Gov: The GOP’s losing streak one state to the north is even longer: Republicans haven’t won Washington’s governorship since John Spellman was elected in 1980. Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee has posted consistent leads in the polls against Republican Bill Bryant, and Hillary Clinton is poised to easily win here. Indeed, we have a final SurveyUSA poll here showing Inslee up 50-43, with Clinton leading 50-38. National Republicans never spent to help Bryant, while a Democratic group dropped a little less than $1 million on ads for Inslee. Team Red may have better luck in 2020, but this seat will stay blue this time. Daily Kos Elections is moving this contest from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
IL-Sen: Republican Sen. Mark Kirk needed almost everything to go right to win re-election in this solidly blue state against Democrat Tammy Duckworth, but instead, just about everything has gone wrong. Duckworth has consistently outraised Kirk, and national Republicans have spent almost nothing to help him. Team Blue, confident of victory, has also directed their resources elsewhere. Kirk’s own behavior also hasn’t helped things. Kirk has made a series of offensive comments, notably saying that President Obama (who used to hold this very seat) was behaving “like the drug dealer-in-chief.” Kirk also infamously said to Duckworth at a recent debate, “I had forgotten that your parents came all the way from Thailand to serve George Washington,” which would have been insulting even if Duckworth hadn’t lost both her legs in Iraq.
In part because Illinois is not a swing state, we have limited polling, but the numbers we do have show Kirk far behind. Most importantly, while both sides have converged in the final days in Wisconsin, another Senate seat the GOP once looked doomed to lose, there has been zero action in Illinois. Mark Kirk may have been the captain of the GOP’s 2010 recruiting class, but with both sides treating him like a redshirt in 2016, Daily Kos Elections is moving this race from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
P.S. With this move, Mark Kirk becomes one of just three incumbents that Daily Kos Elections has ever rated as sure to lose, even going back to our Swing State Project days. In 2014, we moved Pennsylvania GOP Gov. Tom Corbett and Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu to the Caucus of the Damned.
CA-10: Republican Rep. Jeff Denham defeated a well-regarded Democratic opponent 53-47 even as Obama was carrying this Modesto seat 51-47, and he handily dispatched beekeeper Michael Eggman 56-44 during the 2014 GOP wave. When Eggman announced he would seek a rematch, we felt he might do better than before but would still fall short here. However, national Democrats have made a late effort to win this seat, with the DCCC and House Majority PAC directing about $5.8 million here. GOP outside groups responded by deploying a considerable $4.6 million to help Denham. In mid-October, HMP dropped a poll giving Eggman a narrow 46-45 edge, and Eggman’s campaign released a survey showing him leading 47-42; the GOP never released better numbers of its own.
Denham is a formidable opponent, and he may very well survive. It’s also unclear what effect the presidential race will have on this seat. The district has a large Hispanic population that might be energized against Donald Trump. However, this seat also has a much smaller proportion of college-educated residents than the nation as a whole, so The Donald may not dramatically end up underperforming. We’ll have our answers soon, but with both sides spending heavily here and the GOP doing nothing to counter the idea that this contest is close, Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating from Lean Republican to Tossup.
CA-17: Rep. Mike Honda beat former Commerce Department official Ro Khanna 52-48 in an all-Democratic general election two years ago, and Khanna quickly sought a rematch. Honda dealt with some bad headlines over the least year about an ethics investigation looking into whether he improperly commingled campaign work with government business. Many politicians who endorsed Honda last time or remained neutral have switched to Khanna, while other former Honda supporters, most prominently President Obama, have not taken sides in round two.
As a result, we originally felt Khanna was favored to take this Silicon Valley seat this time around, but the race is murkier than it looked a few months ago. In mid-September, it was Khanna's turn to attract some ugly news. Honda's team filed a lawsuit that alleged that Khanna campaign manager, Brian Parvizshahi, illegally accessed private information about Honda's donors—and within hours, Parvizshahi resigned.
In early October, SurveyUSA gave us our only independent poll of the race, showing Khanna up 38-37. In 2014 around the same time in the race, SurveyUSA released a poll showing Honda up 37-35, so Honda could well win despite only polling in the high 30s. Ultimately, we don’t feel we have enough information right now to say that either Democrat is the favorite, so we’re changing our rating from Lean Khanna to No Favorite.
CA-25: Democrats have coveted this northern Los Angeles seat for years, and this may be the year they get it. National Democrats have spent far more their Republican counterparts, while GOP Rep. Steve Knight, a weak fundraiser, only barely outspent Democratic attorney Bryan Caforio. Romney carried this district 50-48, but this is a high-income suburban seat where Donald Trump will probably be a liability. Democrats have also been gaining ground in voter registration over the last four years. In 2012, Republicans outpaced Democrats 39-35 here, but in 2016, Democrats hold a 38-35 edge. Knight may yet pull off a win here in the end, but between the high Democratic spending, the seat’s changing demographics, and the Trump factor, we don’t think the incumbent has the edge. Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating from Lean Republican to Tossup.
CA-52: Democratic Rep. Scott Peters pulled off narrow wins in 2012 and 2014, but this year will be far easier for him. While Obama carried this San Diego seat 52-46, this is a very well-educated area where Donald Trump won’t be much of a help for Team Red. Republicans have nominated Denise Gitsham, a former aide to Karl Rove. While Gitsham raised a credible amount of money, she still didn’t have the resources to match Peters on the airwaves. And while national Republicans signaled in September of last year that this seat would once again be a target, this race soon fell off their radar, and they never aired any ads to help Gitsham. Daily Kos Elections is moving this contest from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
MI-06: Democrat Paul Clements lost to longtime Republican Rep. Fred Upton 56-40 during the 2014 GOP wave, but we hoped that things would go differently in a presidential year. However, while Clements raised a credible amount of money thanks in large part to Bernie Sanders, the well-connected Upton always held a huge financial edge. National Democrats showed some interest in Clements earlier in the cycle, but they never ended up running any ads on his behalf, nor did Republicans ever feel the need to spend on Upton. And while Romney only carried this Kalamazoo seat 50-49, this is a relatively low-income area where Donald Trump probably won’t be a drag downballot. Daily Kos Elections is taking this one off the big board and moving our rating from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.
NV-03: Obama only carried this suburban Las Vegas seat 50-49, and both sides have spent heavily to win it. However, there are good reasons to think that Team Blue will end up on top Tuesday. This is a well-educated and relatively affluent seat, so it’s far from Donald Trump territory. Crucially, Jon Ralston reports that registered Democrats lead Republicans 43-38 in casting ballots early, about 3 points ahead of their registration edge. Since so much of Nevada’s vote is cast before Election Day (statewide four years ago, around two-thirds of the electorate voted early), that means Republican Danny Tarkanian and his allies have quite a bit of ground to make up against Democrat Jacky Rosen.
Outgoing Rep. Joe Heck decisively won this seat in 2012 and 2014 and if he’s going to prevail in the Senate race, he’s going to need to perform well. That may give Tarkanian a lift, but he’s not exactly a formidable candidate. While Tarkanian had strong name recognition as the son of the late, legendary UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, “Little Tark” has lost four previous races for elected office. He also brought tremendous personal baggage to the race that Democrats have continually exploited, while the Republican hits on Rosen have been generic in nature.
Both sides have released polls showing their candidate prevailing. However, we believe Trump’s negative coattails and the solid early voting numbers will cost Tarkanian yet another race. Daily Kos Elections is moving this contest from Tossup to Lean Democratic.
NY-01: Republicans finally took back this eastern Long Island seat in 2014 after trying for a decade, and Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin seems positioned to hold it this year against former Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst. A recent Siena poll found Zeldin ahead by a wide 57-36, while Donald Trump led 51-38. Throne-Holst never released better numbers. National Democrats also aren’t spending like they think this is an especially competitive race. House Majority PAC deployed $608,000, which is not nothing, but it doesn’t go incredibly far in a seat located in the ultra expensive New York City media market. We’re not ruling out the possibility of an upset Tuesday, but with Zeldin in a strong position, we’re moving this from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.