Leading Off:
● Election Night: The big night is almost here! There's a lot to watch downballot, with the battle for the Senate taking center stage. We also have several competitive gubernatorial races, as well as plenty of fiercely contested House contests. To help follow along, Jeff Singer gives us an hour-by-hour guide for what to watch tonight. The fireworks start at 6 PM ET, when polls close in most of Indiana, where Democrats are trying to flip a Senate seat, the governor's mansion, and two House seats.
We'll be liveblogging all the downballot action starting at 6 PM ET at Daily Kos Elections. We'll also be livetweeting the proceedings. There will be a separate liveblog thread on the Daily Kos front page focused on the presidential race. We hope to see you here tonight for what will be a historic evening!
P.S. There's still time to enter the Daily Kos Elections Predictions Contest! This year, we're thrilled to announce that the highly revered Green's Bakery has generously donated the prize: a gift basket of assorted delights, including (of course), a luscious chocolate babka! Head over here for more details, and be sure to get your entries in by 5 PM ET today. Now go and earn that babka! And good luck!
Senate:
● IL-Sen: Republican Sen. Mark Kirk needed almost everything to go right to win re-election in this solidly blue state against Democrat Tammy Duckworth, but instead, just about everything has gone wrong. Duckworth has consistently outraised Kirk, and national Republicans have spent almost nothing to help him. Team Blue, confident of victory, has also directed their resources elsewhere. Kirk's own behavior also hasn't helped things. Kirk has made a series of offensive comments, notably saying that President Obama (who used to hold this very seat) was behaving "like the drug dealer-in-chief." Kirk also infamously said to Duckworth at a recent debate, "I had forgotten that your parents came all the way from Thailand to serve George Washington," which would have been insulting even if Duckworth hadn't lost both her legs in Iraq.
In part because Illinois is not a swing state, we have limited polling, but the numbers we do have show Kirk far behind. Most importantly, while both sides have converged in the final days in Wisconsin, another Senate seat the GOP once looked doomed to lose, there has been zero action in Illinois. Mark Kirk may have been the captain of the GOP's 2010 recruiting class, but with both sides treating him like a redshirt in 2016, Daily Kos Elections is moving this race from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
P.S. With this move, Mark Kirk becomes one of just three incumbents that Daily Kos Elections has ever rated as sure to lose, even going back to our Swing State Project days. In 2014, we moved Pennsylvania GOP Gov. Tom Corbett and Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu to the Caucus of the Damned.
● LA-Sen: SurveyMonkey released one additional new Senate poll in the Louisiana jungle primary. They find Republican John Kennedy leading with 21 percent and followed by Democrat Caroline Fayard at 20, Republican Charles Boustany at 15 percent, Democrat Foster Campbell at 14 percent, and Republican John Fleming with 11 percent. The top two candidates, regardless of party, will advance to a Dec. 3 runoff if no one wins a majority, as looks assured. The survey also indicates Trump leads by a hefty 52-38.
● NV-Sen: If there's one state where it's not a bad idea to bet against the polls, it's Nevada. No, that's not a lazy gambling joke: As we've noted previously, pollsters underestimated Democrats in 2008, 2010, and 2012. Nevada has both a large population of people who work nights (when pollsters typically make their calls) as well as a large community of Spanish speakers, and it's also a state with a fast-growing population. All of these factors combine to make it tough to accurately survey. This time around, polls show a tight race for president and for the Senate, but the early voting numbers strongly indicate that Team Blue is in good shape on the ground.
As Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston has discussed at length, Nevada Democrats voted early at a far greater clip than Republicans, amassing a formidable 6-point lead in ballots returned, which is just under what it was in 2012. Two-thirds of Nevada's votes were cast before Election Day in 2012, so it will be very tough for the GOP to make up the difference. That's not just bad news for Donald Trump. It's also trouble for GOP Rep. Joe Heck, who faces Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto in the race for Harry Reid's open Senate seat. Latino turnout also appears to be notably higher than it was in 2012, which makes the GOP's path to victory even tougher.
Heck isn't sunk yet, though. In 2012, Republican Sen. Dean Heller defeated Democrat Shelley Berkley 46-45 as Obama was winning the Silver State 52-46. If Heck can run far enough ahead of Trump, he could well survive. However, the polls indicate this isn't happening. While the Daily Kos Elections polling average has Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump tied 45-45, Cortez Masto actually leads 45-43. And it's worth noting that in 2012, the final HuffPost Pollster average found Heller ahead 47-43 while Obama led 50-47. While the polls did underestimate both Democrats, they were accurate in finding Berkley running considerably behind Obama.
Of course, it's always possible the polls are right this time around, or even that they're lowballing the GOP, but the early numbers tell another story. We believe Heck is the underdog, and we're moving this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic. Heck can still pull off a win, but we've gotten to the point that a Heck victory would be a real surprise.
● Senate: At the end of every election cycle, no matter how carefully we attempt to divine which way the winds are blowing, we end up with a pile of races in our Tossup column—races where we can't definitively say there's a favorite. But that doesn't mean we don't think certain candidates have the edge. What follows is our sense of where things stand in the five Senate races we've given a final rating of Tossup, along with the Daily Kos Elections polling average and what our forecast model predicts for each contest.
You'll notice that there's some disagreement between our model (created by data scientist Drew Linzer), which relies only on the polls, and our ratings (compiled by the Daily Kos Elections team), which are holistic in nature and incorporate all information we view as helpful. That includes polls, but it also includes our experiential evaluations of the quality of individual polls and pollsters, something the model does not account for. On the other hand, while the model has a one-track mind, it's never misled by subjective assessments. Which way is better? The answer is up to you, though you can read more about our methodology for both approaches here.
● IN-Sen: Evan Bayh (D): 44.3, Todd Young (R): 43.1. Forecast: 51 percent chance of Bayh victory. When Bayh unexpectedly entered this race earlier in the year, he was greeted with Democratic polls showing him far ahead, prompting some observers to call this an easy pickup. But those gaudy numbers were the product of name recognition, and the nostalgia didn't last once the GOP began hammering Bayh as a lobbyist who abandoned his Hoosier roots and went Washington. After an expensive and brutal fight, the race has tightened dramatically, and the trend has not been good for Bayh. He may yet pull off his comeback bid, but we wouldn't be surprised if Indiana's conservative bent winds up being just too much to overcome.
● MO-Sen: Jason Kander (D): 44.0, Roy Blunt (R-inc): 45.3. Forecast: 39 percent chance of Kander victory. Kander is easily the most impressive and surprising Senate candidate of the cycle, turning what had been an extreme long shot into a legitimate pickup opportunity for Democrats. It's a marvel that Blunt is in such a pickle, given that Missouri is solidly Republican state, but Kander ran the ad of the year, and he's effectively portrayed Blunt as a creature of Washington surrounded by a family of lobbyists. All that said, Kander still has a tough task snatching up that final few percent he needs to actually win, so we think Missouri's red hue might just save Blunt.
● NC-Sen: Deborah Ross (D): 44.3, Richard Burr (R-inc): 44.9. Forecast: 47 percent chance of Ross victory. Ross was an unheralded recruit, and for much of the cycle, national Democrats let this race linger. But North Carolina's swingy presidential-year electorate, combined with Hillary Clinton's aggressive play for the state, had us thinking for some time that this could be a real race, and Ross proved to be an excellent fundraiser. Burr, meanwhile, behaved as though he didn't face a competitive re-election and at times seemed to be running a 19th-century campaign. Recent polls are split in assessing who leads, but Burr's incumbency might be enough to protect him even if Clinton carries the Tar Heel State.
● NH-Sen: Maggie Hassan (D): 45.7, Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 45.2. Forecast: 52 percent chance of Hassan victory. New Hampshire is the most volatile of all swing states, and our knife's-edge forecast bears that out. We'd be nuts to weigh in any further, but it's very possible that the polls are badly understating the final margin in one direction or another: In 2012, Hassan outperformed the polling average by 8 points, and in 2010, Ayotte outperformed it by 10. Something like that could very well happen again.
● PA-Sen: Katie McGinty (D): 45.6, Pat Toomey (R-inc): 42.9. Forecast: 79 percent chance of McGinty victory. Pennsylvania is the most lopsided race we're calling a Tossup, and we'll be honest: We struggled over this one. The forecast model does indeed give McGinty, who was far from the Democrats' first choice, a very good chance at unseating Toomey. But we have doubts about the quality of many of the recent polls, and a 3.7 percent average lead is just small enough to keep us guessing. Also, unlike in Nevada, Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting to buttress the polling data. But Clinton is the overwhelming favorite in the Keystone State, and her coattails ought to help carry McGinty across the proverbial finish line.
● Polling Roundup: Here's Johnny!
● AZ-Sen: Data Orbital: 56-44 McCain (R-inc) (47-44 Trump)
● AZ-Sen: SurveyMonkey: 50-45 McCain (R-inc) (45-43 Clinton)
● FL-Sen: Quinnipiac: 50-43 Rubio (R-inc) (46-45 Clinton)
● FL-Sen: SurveyMonkey: 49-48 Murphy (D) (47-45 Clinton)
● FL-Sen: YouGov: 47-44 Rubio (R-inc) (45-45 presidential tie)
● IL-Sen: SurveyMonkey: 56-39 Duckworth (D) (52-35 Clinton)
● IN-Sen: SurveyMonkey: 52-43 Young (R) (52-35 Trump)
● KY-Sen: SurveyMonkey: 51-46 Paul (R-inc) (53-35 Trump)
● MO-Sen: Clarity Campaign Labs (D): 47-45 Blunt (R-inc) (54-38 Trump)
● MO-Sen: SurveyMonkey: 51-43 Kander (D) (48-40 Trump)
● NV-Sen: SurveyMonkey: 49-46 Cortez Masto (D) (44-43 Clinton)
● NH-Sen: SurveyMonkey: 50-41 Hassan (D) (49-38 Clinton)
● NH-Sen: University of New Hampshire: 49-45 Hassan (D) (49-38 Clinton)
● NC-Sen: Quinnipiac: 47-47 Senate tie (47-45 Clinton)
● NC-Sen: Siena: 46-45 Burr (R-inc) (44-44 presidential tie)
● NC-Sen: SurveyMonkey: 47-44 Ross (D) (48-41 Clinton)
● PA-Sen: Clarity Campaign Labs (D): 46-43 McGinty (D) (47-43 Clinton)
● PA-Sen: Muhlenberg College: 43-42 Toomey (R-inc) (44-40 Clinton)
● PA-Sen: SurveyMonkey: 50-45 McGinty (D) (47-42 Clinton)
● PA-Sen: YouGov: 47-46 McGinty (D) (45-43 Clinton)
● WI-Sen: Clarity Campaign Labs (D): 49-46 Feingold (D) (47-43 Clinton)
● WI-Sen: SurveyMonkey: 49-48 Johnson (R-inc) (44-43 Clinton)
Gubernatorial:
● OR-Gov: The last time the GOP won Oregon's governorship was 1982, when Republican Vic Atiyeh was re-elected over future Gov. Ted Kulongoski. That streak is going to last at least another two years, as Democratic Gov. Kate Brown should have no trouble dispatching Republican Bud Pierce on Tuesday. Polls give both Brown and Hillary Clinton clear leads, and tellingly, no major outside groups on either side ever got involved here. Brown is running to fill the final two years of ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber's term, so she'll need to face the voters again in 2018. Maybe the GOP will be able to put up a stronger fight in two years, but for 2016, Daily Kos Elections is moving this contest from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
● WA-Gov: The GOP's losing streak one state to the north is even longer: Republicans haven't won Washington's governorship since John Spellman was elected in 1980. Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee has posted consistent leads in the polls against Republican Bill Bryant, and Hillary Clinton is poised to easily win here. Indeed, we have a final SurveyUSA poll here showing Inslee up 50-43, with Clinton leading 50-38. National Republicans never spent to help Bryant, while a Democratic group dropped a little less than $1 million on ads for Inslee. Team Red may have better luck in 2020, but this seat will stay blue this time. Daily Kos Elections is moving this contest from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
● Polling Roundup: David Letterman!
● IN-Gov: SurveyMonkey: 49-46 Gregg (D) (52-35 Trump)
● MO-Gov: SurveyMonkey: 49-46 Koster (D) (48-40 Trump)
● MT-Gov: SurveyMonkey: 45-44 Bullock (D-inc) (53-31 Trump)
● NH-Gov: SurveyMonkey: 56-41 Van Ostern (D) (49-38 Clinton)
● NH-Gov: University of New Hampshire: 48-37 Van Ostern (D) (49-38 Clinton)
● NC-Gov: Quinnipiac: 50-47 Cooper (D) (47-45 Clinton)
● NC-Gov: Siena: 47-46 Cooper (D) (44-44 presidential tie)
● NC-Gov: SurveyMonkey: 54-43 Cooper (D) (48-41 Clinton)
● VT-Gov: SurveyMonkey: 50-48 Minter (D) (60-27 Clinton)
● WV-Gov: SurveyMonkey: 43-37 Cole (R) (57-27 Trump)
House:
● CA-10: Republican Rep. Jeff Denham defeated a well-regarded Democratic opponent 53-47 even as Obama was carrying this Modesto seat 51-47, and he handily dispatched beekeeper Michael Eggman 56-44 during the 2014 GOP wave. When Eggman announced he would seek a rematch, we felt he might do better than before but would still fall short here. However, national Democrats have made a late effort to win this seat, with the DCCC and House Majority PAC directing about $5.8 million here. GOP outside groups responded by deploying a considerable $4.6 million to help Denham. In mid-October, HMP dropped a poll giving Eggman a narrow 46-45 edge, and Eggman's campaign released a survey showing him leading 47-42; the GOP never released better numbers of its own.
Denham is a formidable opponent, and he may very well survive. It's also unclear what effect the presidential race will have on this seat. The district has a large Hispanic population that might be energized against Donald Trump. However, this seat also has a much smaller proportion of college-educated residents than the nation as a whole, so The Donald may not dramatically end up underperforming. We'll have our answers soon, but with both sides spending heavily here and the GOP doing nothing to counter the idea that this contest is close, Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating from Lean Republican to Tossup.
● CA-17: Rep. Mike Honda beat former Commerce Department official Ro Khanna 52-48 in an all-Democratic general election two years ago, and Khanna quickly sought a rematch. Honda dealt with some bad headlines over the least year about an ethics investigation looking into whether he improperly commingled campaign work with government business. Many politicians who endorsed Honda last time or remained neutral have switched to Khanna, while other former Honda supporters, most prominently President Obama, have not taken sides in round two.
As a result, we originally felt Khanna was favored to take this Silicon Valley seat this time around, but the race is murkier than it looked a few months ago. In mid-September, it was Khanna's turn to attract some ugly news. Honda's team filed a lawsuit that alleged that Khanna campaign manager, Brian Parvizshahi, illegally accessed private information about Honda's donors—and within hours, Parvizshahi resigned.
In early October, SurveyUSA gave us our only independent poll of the race, showing Khanna up 38-37. In 2014 around the same time in the race, SurveyUSA released a poll showing Honda up 37-35, so Honda could well win despite only polling in the high 30s. Ultimately, we don't feel we have enough information right now to say that either Democrat is the favorite, so we're changing our rating from Lean Khanna to No Favorite.
● CA-25: Democrats have coveted this northern Los Angeles seat for years, and this may be the year they get it. National Democrats have spent far more their Republican counterparts, while GOP Rep. Steve Knight, a weak fundraiser, only barely outspent Democratic attorney Bryan Caforio. Romney carried this district 50-48, but this is a high-income suburban seat where Donald Trump will probably be a liability. Democrats have also been gaining ground in voter registration over the last four years. In 2012, Republicans outpaced Democrats 39-35 here, but in 2016, Democrats hold a 38-35 edge. Knight may yet pull off a win here in the end, but between the high Democratic spending, the seat's changing demographics, and the Trump factor, we don't think the incumbent has the edge. Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating from Lean Republican to Tossup.
● CA-52: Democratic Rep. Scott Peters pulled off narrow wins in 2012 and 2014, but this year will be far easier for him. While Obama carried this San Diego seat 52-46, this is a very well-educated area where Donald Trump won't be much of a help for Team Red. Republicans have nominated Denise Gitsham, a former aide to Karl Rove. While Gitsham raised a credible amount of money, she still didn't have the resources to match Peters on the airwaves. And while national Republicans signaled in September of last year that this seat would once again be a target, this race soon fell off their radar, and they never aired any ads to help Gitsham. Daily Kos Elections is moving this contest from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
● MI-06: Democrat Paul Clements lost to longtime Republican Rep. Fred Upton 56-40 during the 2014 GOP wave, but we hoped that things would go differently in a presidential year. However, while Clements raised a credible amount of money thanks in large part to Bernie Sanders, the well-connected Upton always held a huge financial edge. National Democrats showed some interest in Clements earlier in the cycle, but they never ended up running any ads on his behalf, nor did Republicans ever feel the need to spend on Upton. And while Romney only carried this Kalamazoo seat 50-49, this is a relatively low-income area where Donald Trump probably won't be a drag downballot. Daily Kos Elections is taking this one off the big board and moving our rating from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.
● NV-03: Obama only carried this suburban Las Vegas seat 50-49, and both sides have spent heavily to win it. However, there are good reasons to think that Team Blue will end up on top Tuesday. This is a well-educated and relatively affluent seat, so it's far from Donald Trump territory. Crucially, Jon Ralston reports that registered Democrats lead Republicans 43-38 in casting ballots early, about 3 points ahead of their registration edge. Since so much of Nevada's vote is cast before Election Day (statewide four years ago, around two-thirds of the electorate voted early), that means Republican Danny Tarkanian and his allies have quite a bit of ground to make up against Democrat Jacky Rosen.
Outgoing Rep. Joe Heck decisively won this seat in 2012 and 2014 and if he's going to prevail in the Senate race, he's going to need to perform well here. That may give Tarkanian a lift, but he's not exactly a formidable candidate. While Tarkanian had strong name recognition as the son of the late, legendary UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, "Little Tark" has lost four previous races for elected office. He also brought tremendous personal baggage to the race that Democrats have continually exploited, while the Republican hits on Rosen have been generic in nature.
Both sides have released polls showing their candidate prevailing. However, we believe Trump's negative coattails and the solid early voting numbers will cost Tarkanian yet another race. Daily Kos Elections is moving this contest from Tossup to Lean Democratic.
● NY-01: Republicans finally took back this eastern Long Island seat in 2014 after trying for a decade, and Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin seems positioned to hold it this year against former Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst. A recent Siena poll found Zeldin ahead by a wide 57-36, while Donald Trump led 51-38. Throne-Holst never released better numbers. National Democrats also aren't spending like they think this is an especially competitive race. House Majority PAC deployed $608,000, which is not nothing, but it doesn't go incredibly far in a seat located in the ultra expensive New York City media market. We're not ruling out the possibility of an upset Tuesday, but with Zeldin in a strong position, we're moving this from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.
● California Voter Registration: The California secretary of state's office has published updated voter registration statistics in advance of today's vote, and boy, the trend line is pretty bleak for Republicans. Overall, statewide, Democrats have added over 750,000 voters to their ranks since 2012, while Republicans have lost just over 300,000 registered voters in the same time period. (Voters electing to express no party preference, whose ranks include many younger Hispanic voters, grew by nearly 1.3 million!)
We thought it might be a good idea to take a closer look at the registration changes in all seven congressional districts being contested by both parties this year, as well as in CA-39, where the ground appears to be shifting under GOP Rep. Ed Royce's feet and could be a pick-up target in the future. You can view our full data here, but we've handily summarized the shifts in table format below:
District |
Year |
D% |
R% |
I% |
CA-07 (BERA) |
2012 |
39 |
38 |
19 |
|
2016 |
39 |
34 |
22 |
CA-10 (Denham) |
2012 |
40 |
39 |
17 |
|
2016 |
39 |
36 |
19 |
CA-21 (Valadao) |
2012 |
47 |
33 |
16 |
|
2016 |
46 |
29 |
21 |
CA-24 (open) |
2012 |
38 |
34 |
22 |
|
2016 |
40 |
32 |
23 |
CA-25 (Knight) |
2012 |
35 |
39 |
17 |
|
2016 |
38 |
35 |
22 |
CA-39 (Royce) |
2012 |
32 |
39 |
23 |
|
2016 |
34 |
36 |
25 |
CA-49 (Issa) |
2012 |
29 |
41 |
24 |
|
2016 |
31 |
38 |
26 |
CA-52 (Peters) |
2012 |
33 |
34 |
28 |
|
2016 |
34 |
31 |
29 |
The needle moved in the Democratic and independent direction in all eight of these districts. Perhaps the most dramatic change was in CA-25, a district located in the northern part of Los Angeles County, where a 4-point Republican registration edge in 2012 has turned into a 3-point Democratic advantage today. Those numbers certainly validate national Democrats' substantial investment into Bryan Caforio's bid to knock off freshman incumbent Rep. Steve Knight.
On the other side of the coin, Republicans have tried mightily to contest three Democratic-held seats (CA-07, CA-24, and, to a lesser degree, CA-52) this year, but the voter data illustrates exactly how challenging of a task this will be. In the 7th and 24th Districts, Democrats have expanded their net voter registration edges by roughly 4 points in each district, and by 3 points in the 52nd, where Democratic incumbent Scott Peters appears poised to earn a third term.
Overall, while the numbers may not necessarily point to a Republican apocalypse in the Golden State tonight, their long-term survival in key districts appears to be a dire proposition.
● Polling Roundup: I'm Mike Wallace, I'm Morley Safer, and I'm Ed Bradley. All this and Andy Rooney tonight on 60 Minutes!
● AK-AL: DCCC (D): Don Young (R-inc): 39, Steve Lindbeck (D): 37, Jim McDermott (L): 14
● FL-13: St. Pete Polls: Charlie Crist (D): 51, David Jolly (R-inc): 46 (48-46 Clinton)
● IA-01: Loras College: Rod Blum (R-inc): 47, Monica Vernon (D): 41
● IA-03: Loras College: David Young (R-inc): 44, Jim Mowrer (D): 39
● NH-01: University of New Hampshire: Carol Shea-Porter (D): 42, Frank Guinta (R-inc): 33, Shawn O'Connor (I): 16
● NY-03: Siena: Tom Suozzi (D): 47, Jack Martins (R): 40
● NY-19: Siena: John Faso (R): 48, Zephyr Teachout (D): 42 (43-38 Trump)
Legislative:
● State Legislatures: Which state legislative chambers could flip between the two parties among the 86 that hold elections on Tuesday? Stephen Wolf maps out the 18 that are the most likely to change hands and details how many seats each party would need to gain to win power. Democrats could take over 13 in total: the upper chambers in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, and Washington, and the lower chambers in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. Republican offensive opportunities are a much fewer five: the upper chambers in Iowa and Minnesota, and the lower chambers in Kentucky, Maine, and Washington.
● Special Elections: The amazing Johnny Longtorso reminds us that there are several special elections Tuesday!
Michigan SD-04: This is an open Democratic seat in Detroit. The Democratic nominee is Ian Conyers, a former staffer for Adrian Fenty and the great-nephew of Rep. John Conyers. The Republican nominee is Keith Franklin, who ran for this seat in 2014 and lost 82-18. This seat went 83-17 for President Obama in 2012.
Missouri SD-04: This is an open Democratic seat in St. Louis. The Democratic nominee is state Rep. Jacob Hummel, while the Republican nominee is Bryan Young, a real estate broker. Also on the ballot is Libertarian Michael Lewis. This seat went 73-26 for President Obama in 2012.
New Jersey SD-18: This is an open Democratic seat located in Middlesex County. The Democratic nominee is Patrick Diegnan Jr., who was appointed to this seat earlier this year. The Republican nominee is Roger Daley, a retired judge. This seat went 61-38 for President Obama in 2012.
New Jersey AD-18: This is an open Democratic seat coterminous with the above Senate seat. The Democratic nominee is Robert Karabinchak, who was appointed to the seat earlier this year. The Republican nominee is Camille Ferraro Clark, a member of the East Brunswick Township Council.
North Dakota HD-15: This is an open Republican seat in the northeastern part of the state. The Democratic nominee is Brenda Bergsrud, a nonprofit employee who applied to be appointed to this seat as a Republican. The Republican nominee is Greg Westlind, who was appointed to this seat earlier this year. This seat went 53-44 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
Virginia SD-01: This is an open Democratic seat stretching from Newport News up to Williamsburg. The Democratic nominee is former Del. Monty Mason, while the Republican nominee is Thomas Holston, a retired firefighter. Also on the ballot is independent John Bloom, who previously ran for the House of Delegates as a Republican. This seat went 60-39 for President Obama in 2012.
Virginia HD-93: This is an open Democratic seat that meanders from Williamsburg to Newport News into York County (yes, it was vacated by Monty Mason). The Democratic nominee is Michael Mullin, who lost a race for the Newport News City Council earlier this year, while the Republican nominee is Heather Cordasco, who lost a race for the James City County Board of Supervisors last year. This seat went 56-42 for President Obama in 2012.
Ballot Measures:
● Ballot Measures: Stephen Wolf details some of the key ballot measures in major American cities in 2016, particularly in the nation's archetypal land of direct democracy, California. Important issues include a $15 minimum wage in high-cost Los Angeles, taxes on sugary beverages in San Francisco, and major transportation-funding projects in the Los Angeles and Detroit, Michigan, metropolitan areas. Of particular interest to elections watchers, San Francisco could become the first major American city to lower its minimum voting age from 18 to 16 for local elections and to allow non-citizen parents of school children to vote in school board elections.
Grab Bag:
● Deaths: On Monday, former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno died at the age of 78. Reno was no stranger to electoral politics. She first ran for office in 1972, when she unsuccessfully sought a Florida state House seat as a Democrat. In 1978, Reno became Dade County state attorney after the incumbent resigned, and she was elected to the office later that year. Reno served until President Bill Clinton chose her as attorney general in 1993, and she stayed until the end of his presidency.
Shortly after leaving the Justice Department in 2001, Reno kicked off a bid to face Florida GOP Gov. Jeb Bush. Reno initially posted huge leads over wealthy attorney Bill McBride in the Democratic primary. However, McBride used his resources to target primary voters who saw Reno as too liberal, and he ran commercials while Reno focused on personal campaigning. McBride narrowly won the 2002 primary 44.4 to 44.0, though Reno didn't concede for days after a chaotic election night; McBride lost to Bush 56-43.
● Maps: How do you know Election Day is here? Because the one-of-a-kind Daily Kos Elections color-coded poll closings times map is back! And this year, it's even better than ever, since we now have versions for every U.S. time zone. We even have a version (Eastern Time only) with each state's closing time individually labeled that's suited for the color-blind. This is the map that Nancy Pelosi herself relies on! Click here to bookmark it, print it out, and share with all your friends. And, of course, check back in with us when polls close starting at 6 PM ET for our liveblog!
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.