If I could financialize procrastination, I would never work a day in my life. This is something I wanted to write during the primaries in support of Bernie, although I think it is probably more relevant for Jill Stein. The majority of people on this site will probably not like what I have to say. You can always read it after the elections. My intention is not to agitate, it’s something that’s been on my conscious for a while and need to write it down.
If most people were not aware of the TPP before the election, even less know the details now. The fact that it has been negotiated behind close doors mainly by corporatist lobbyists speaks volumes. Even Congress members had to go to classified briefings with no staff or cell phones while being watched. They were also not allowed to discuss any details. Unfortunately, not even that fact comes close to describing how horrific it is.
When you have Michael Froman, the Citigroup executive who gave President Obama a list of key staffers in 2008, as the US Trade Representative, you have a problem. The TPP is about allowing corporations to bypass local environmental, labor, and financial laws. Corporate colonialism is a better description than a trade deal.
Studies show little to no growth if all tariffs were eliminated, and a pay cut for all but the richest 10%. It will also lead to the off-shoring of American jobs, a widened inequality gap, and more slave wages overseas.
We have previous trade deals as examples. Using the same play book as climate deniers, NAFTA apologists will seek to invalidate studies that show the negative aspects by pointing funding sources, or political leaning. The truth is that numbers from the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA), a government program to help workers who lost their jobs, show that more than 845,000 people qualified.
Speaking of the TAA, both Democrats and Republicans were able to fund the program with $450 million per year by taking it out of Medicare. That is just a little bit less than the cost an an F-35 jet.
In comparison, President Clinton stated that NAFTA would create 200,000 jobs in first two years and a million in the first five years. Public Citizen published a report about NAFTA's 20 year legacy.
One only needs to look at the before and after trade balances . Pre-NAFTA, the US had a $2.6 billion surplus, 22 years later a $57 billion deficit. Pre-WTO, a $113 billion deficit, 15 years later, the deficit more than doubled to $340 billion. Pre-Korea FTA, a $15.6 billion deficit, 4 years later, it almost doubled to $28.5 billion. Remember, the TPP is being sold as a improving the economy.
Another feature of the TPP that doesn’t get promoted is human trafficking and forced labor. Senator Menendez (D-NJ) drafted an amendment to bar Tier-3 countries. A Tier-3 designation means that the government does not fully comply with the minimum standards and is not making significant efforts to do so in regards to trafficking in persons. The White House considered the amendment a deal breaker because they wanted Malaysia included. Trafficking victims comprise the majority of Malaysia's 2 million migrant laborers.
But to truly understand the TPP, you need look at the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS). These are tribunals without all the safeguards of traditional court systems. They are held in secret and the judges are corporate lawyers, many of whom work for the same industry whose cases they hear. Citizens and communities affected by their decisions have no legal standing. There is no appeal and no corresponding rights for citizens.
This has a chilling effect. The threat of being sued has had the effect of abandoning or watering down laws on public health and environmental protection. A Canadian government official said the following regarding NAFTA:
“I've seen the letters from the New York and DC law firms coming up to the Canadian government on virtually every new environmental regulation and proposition in the last five years. They involved dry-cleaning chemicals, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, patent law. Virtually all of the new initiatives were targeted and most of them never saw the light of day.”
It’s not until you start seeing the cases that the implications start to sink in. In 2012, the WTO ruled against the popular country of origin labeling for meat. Not only does this inform consumers, it helps regulators track food related outbreaks.
In 2014 the WTO found that US rules on dolphin-safe labels for tuna ran counter to international trade laws. They ruled in favor of Mexico.
Philip Morris has sued both Uruguay and Australia over graphic cigarette packing. They claim that these regulations violate treaty law . Uruguay was only able to defend itself in court with financial assistance from Michael Bloomberg. Unfortunately smaller countries like Togo and Namibia have had no choice but to suspend any anti-smoking measures due to threats from the tobacco industry.
Not even the welfare of children is taken into account. In 2009 the FDA passed a ban on flavored cigarettes to deter children from smoking. The WTO ruled against the United States in 2012 and ordered it to either change or remove it.
In 1997 the Canadian government passed a low restricting the use of the neuro-toxin MMT, a gasoline additive that contains the heavy metal manganese. Ethyl Corp quickly invoked NAFTA to sue Canada for $350 million for damages and lost income. As a result, both parties eventually settled out of court with Canada having to pay $13 million for lost profits and legal costs. To add insult to injury, the Canadian government had to issue a statement that MMT is neither an environmental nor health risk.
El Salvador placed a moratorium on gold mining citing human and environmental health concerns. The mining process uses cyanide and arsenic and large amounts of water. Not only is El Salvador the most water stressed country in Central America, but also according the UN 90% of its water is contaminated. The Australian mining company OceanGold sued the government for $301 million for refusing to grant it a mining permit.
In 2006 Argentina terminated a water contract with Aguas Argentinas, a company partly owned by French based Suez. They called for a 60% price hike during to pay for infrastructure payments during Argentina’s 2001-2002 economic crisis. Suez had been fined in 2004 for cutting the supply during a heat wave and failing to failing to invest in vital infrastructure. They even included warnings on the water bills stating that children should not drink the water because it was unsafe.
But the unbridled evil that is the TPP doesn’t become come into full view until you realize the effect this “trade deal” will have on addressing global warming. Canadian pipeline company TransCanada announced that it was going to sue the US under NAFTA for rejecting the Keystone XL pipeline. The following statement by TransCanada sums up ISDS in one simple sentence:
"TransCanada has been unjustly deprived of the value of its multibillion-dollar investment by the U.S. administration's action"
And how much were they deprived of? An amazing $15 billion. How many Flint’s would that help? The Sierra Club doesn’t go far enough in stating that the TPP fails to protect the environment.
The most egregious cases, if there aren’t enough, are the ones that have repercussions on entire countries and the planet. In a clear example of the environmentally destructive power of the TPP, the WTO ruled against India’s national solar energy program. The ruling stated that India gave incentives to domestic manufacturers to use locally developed equipment discriminated against American manufacturers. Keep in mind that India has a population of 1.25 billion people. The Indian capital Delhi has, by orders of magnitude, the worst air quality in the world. Twice the hazardous level, and 33 times worse than Beijing!
This leads us to the next issue, which is global warming. I have to believe that people just don’t care. It’s baffling to me that during the debates it was barely mentioned. One of the most pressing issues in the history of humanity, and it has been swept under the rug.
We know the science behind the green house effect, it is irrefutable. Green house gases (carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor) act as a blanket over the planet. The higher the concentration, the more of the sun’s energy gets trapped. And we know the carbon dioxide is man-made, there are many ways that we can prove it. We even know that the early days of the Industrial Revolution caused warming, well before Al Gore.
Skepticism is an important part of science. Models are based on observation and our best understanding of the world at that point in time. They are refined based on new evidence and knowledge as part of the scientific method. Thousands of people work countless hours in harsh environments collecting samples and processing data. The planet is an incredibly complex system of which we may never be able to make precise predictions. But perfect science is not required to guide and help us make decisions.
Most climate deniers focus on aspects that are not consistent with all observations, doing no research or collection of data. They provide no useful input or investigations, acting primarily to enforce their preconceived notions that this is all a hoax, financial scam, or conspiracy. Or they will focus on a prediction that has inconsistencies, discarding the science and planting seeds of doubt without debate.
An example this behavior is highlighted by the observation that Antarctic sea ice extent went on a record streak from 2012 to a record high in 2014. Despite the fact that sea ice was disappearing globally, the deniers used this information to invalidate global warming, without doing their own research or scientific analysis. New studies have since provided explanations for this contradictory phenomenon.
Denialism changes from the earth is cooling, to it is not being caused by humans, and it’s good for the planet. It has only served the people and corporations that profit from activities that that contribute to global warming. The oil industry knew about CO2’s role in global warming since the 60's and had no doubt by the 70's.
Even the Pentagon has made it clear that they consider climate change a national Security threat. We are in deep shit don’t have any more time.
Here are some facts that people might not know. You and I will most likely never see a carbon dioxide concentration less than 400ppm in our lifetimes. September was the twelfth record hot month in a row, July the hottest ever, and this year is going to surpass 2015 as the hottest year ever, and 9 out of the last 10 years have been record breakers. The Pentagon is one of the largest contributors to global warming, protecting oil, at a cost of trillions.
For brevity, I am leaving many other observations. Climate change is not a future problem, it is happening now. At our current pace, sea level rise might not ever become an issue.
Most people probably don’t understand what 1 or 2 degrees Celsius warming represents. It is not uncommon for daily temperatures fluctuate by 10 degrees or more, and weather forecasts routinely miss by a larger amount. But the planet, like the human body, is very sensitive to changes in temperature. As your body temperature rises by a degree, you start to feel under the weather. A couple degrees more, and you should see a doctor. Anything above that and you are in danger.
A common misconception about global average temperatures is that they are evenly distributed. Being an average measurement, some areas will be colder, others hotter. And what we are seeing now, is that the Arctic has a very bad fever. Our air conditioner is breaking down.
The Arctic is the canary in the coal mine. As late as last year, climate models did not do a good job of taking into account the melting of the permafrost and amount of carbon stored in the Arctic. The scientific community assumed that this permafrost would be protected from global warming.
The world’s oceans have been absorbing the majority of the accumulated heat which has circulated from the tropics to the poles. As the Arctic ice melts, less sunlight is reflected and more energy is absorbed by the water and land. This is known as the albedo effect. On land, this increases the temperature of the Arctic rivers which empty into the ocean.
Soot, dust, and microbial algae make the problem worse by absorbing more sunlight, increasing the snow melt and further warming the Arctic. Siberia has been on fire this summer, literally. Temperatures have reached an incredible 95°F. There have been massive forest fires this summer. Enhanced by climate change, the fires have not only burned trees, but also peat and thawed permafrost. The heat and soot are a very troubling addition to the pink algae bloom that is absorbing even more sunlight. We are starting to see the effects of a feedback loop from hell.
Alaska has also been on fire. Record shattering winter temperatures forced Iditarod organizers to haul in snow via rail. Last year the race had to be moved north for lack of snow. On July 13, 2016, Deadhorse, Alaska, just six miles from the Arctic coast, set the state record for any Arctic location with a temperature of 85°F. The statewide average temperature for this first six months of the year was 9 degrees Fahrenheit above average, smashing the previous record of 2.5 degrees.
The lack of sea ice allows heat from the ocean to escape into the Arctic environment, warming the air and increasing the water vapor content. This melts the Greenland ice sheet, and releases more methane, a gas 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide. This methane along with the water vapor, both being greenhouse gases, trap more heat. A study has found that the albedo change is equivalent to 25% of warming attributed to carbon dioxide. This was not taken into account by the Paris Accords.
Most people don’t realize that the Arctic soil has roughly 1600 billion metric tons or organic carbon, about half of all the earth’s organic carbon soil. To put this in perspective, only 350 billion metric tons of carbon have been emitted from all fossil fuel activities since 1850. Most of these carbon stores are within 10 feet of the surface. If this heating becomes a runaway process, stopping all emissions will not reverse it. Given this amount of carbon deposits, the result would be a major turning point for humanity.
However, this is not the worst case scenario. The Arctic region has shallow continental shelves that contain large quantities of methane hydrate, a frozen form of the gas. Some scientists believe that an open and warming ocean makes it possible for this methane to convert into it’s gas form and escape into the atmosphere. A rapid release could bring us to the brink of extinction.
Although not the consensus, it is a view shared by the people who have done the related field work in the Arctic. Compared to climate deniers, the opposing view has presented valid objections backed by science. The problem is that these are incredibly complex systems, making it highly unlikely that any explanation captures all the variables. Reality is starting to show that our predictions are being too conservative.
The IPCC had estimated Arctic ice pack was safe at least until 2050 or well beyond 2100. We are seeing significant decreases in ice volume and this summer the Arctic sea ice minimum was tied for the second lowest on record. As we move into November, we are seeing that parts of the Arctic Ocean are as warm 62.7°F. To put that into perspective, all the Great Lakes are colder.
The November sea ice extent is significantly less than 2012, the record holding year. In 2012 the US Naval Postgraduate School predicted that the Arctic would be ice free between 2013 and 2019. It is starting to look like this might be the case. To compound this troubling development, recent research shows that methane mega-emissions are starting to seep from the sea floor. At what point should we become alarmists?
So where does the Democratic Party really stand on global warming? Their actions have been at odds with their statements. Under President Obama, oil production has increased every year to near record levels. He has granted over 1500 fracking permits in the Gulf of Mexico from 2010 to 2014, despite the Deepwater Horizon disaster in April of 2010. In 2015 the Obama administration granted Shell final approval to drill in the Arctic, and proposed offshore drilling in the Atlantic. In 2015 he ended the 40 year US crude oil export limits.
Hillary Clinton has taken millions of dollars from fossil fuel companies and financiers. She hired a former Keystone Pipeline lobbyist as a campaign consultant, who just happened to work with Senator Obama’s 2008 campaign before lobbying. Hillary Clinton has sold fracking to the world, and her Democratic Party’s Platform Committee voted down a ban on fracking.
Both President Obama and Hillary Clinton will attempt to pass the TPP at any cost. Mrs Clinton has not been truthful about her involvement, and the Democratic platform could not even include non-binding opposition to the TPP.
But the most damning display of what to expect by either the Democrats or Republicans if the TPP passes, is happening right in front of us. As you finish reading this, the people of the Standind Rock Sioux Tribe and those supporting them are being attacked, arrested, and terrorized opposing the Dakota Access pipeline. Just like their sovereignty has been stolen, this trade deal will do the same to the rest of us. We won’t be able to protect our water, we won’t be able to protect our planet.
The response and silence by our government, the media, Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton has been shameful. We have an opportunity, now, to avoid this dystopian future. There is only one candidate that opposes the TPP, opposes fracking, and will push for renewable energy without the constraint of having been funded by big oil.
It is not impossible for her to win. Only 18% of the electorate voted during the primaries, independents make up the majority of voters, and the population of millennials has surpassed that of the baby boomers. Just obtaining 5% of the vote would be a game changer. They will be recognized as an official national party and receive federal funding.
No person should be told how to vote, but please consider these issues… this may be our last chance.