Lotsa folks out protesting in the streets, a good thing to see. Their anger is real, and badly needs an outlet…. But we’re not going to stop Trump from taking office and his henchmen running roughshod over us in congress and most of the statehouses. Taking down Trump and his GOP will be a marathon campaign, not a sprint. And like a marathoner, we need to prepare for the long run ahead.
First, a look at what’s (probably) going to happen:
Trump don’t even get the run of the oval office and more importantly presidential pens to sign executive orders for nearly two months. And given that the federal budget year begins and ends on October 1st, that cake is already baked and much of the federal government is on autopilot for nearly a year. Sure, he can get lots of press with executive orders, but if he’s going to cut half of EPA for example, that’s going to take a while while congress passes disabling legislation and half the EPAs workforce go through the long RIF (Reduction In Force) process. A lot of federal programs like the Farm Bill that continues through 2018 will stay in place ‘till then, same with Obamacare that is currently signing up people for 2017, and those contracts must be honored. Sure, if congress was hard working they could do a rescission on these program’s funding, but this congress is not known for hard work. The plus side of this is we get time to prepare, the minus side is that Trump and the GOP will look like a success for a while.
Then comes 2018, and Trump finally gets his ICE staffed up and congress takes a meat cleaver to medicare and other benefits we earned, and most of Obamacare is no more. Or if they’re nervous about the 2018 elections, they delay the actual cuts ‘till 2019. And the GOP won’t be too nervous about the 2018 elections, because to win back the senate we’ll have to hold every democratic incumbent’s seat and win at least 2 seats, and one of those seats will be in an R+7 or tougher state. The house will be just as steep an uphill fight, having been thoroughly gerrymandered in key states by the GOP… So 2018 will be our year to take back the statehouses, turn the 10th amendment on Trump, and control the post 2020 redistricting.
So there’s a good chance we may not win back either house of congress in 2018, never mind win the supermajority needed to impeach. And by 2019, Trump’s policies will be slowly pushing the economy into a depression… But Trump and the GOP could still hold off their depression with heavy borrowing and win re-election in 2020. Don’t laugh- Nixon, Reagan, and Bush II all won re-election. Of course, this assumes Trump and the GOP allow any further elections. Throw in the unpredictability and incendiary behavior of Trump, and he could very well set off a war with Iran, Korea, ISIS, or who knows what other unpredictable world power has yet to arise. And given that North Dakota is about to forcibly defy a federal order, civil war is possible too.
So how do we prepare to survive immigrant and dissident roundups, another great depression, and possibly war? And then come back to restore democracy?
I was broke and unemployed when I came out during Nixon’s reign, Hung on to a union job at Hostess for dear life through the Reagan recession, and was forced out of my Postal Service job during Bush II’s debacle. But Trump and the current GOP congress scares me more than any of them, and I’m any old lady with two pensions, Medicare, and a fat IRA… If you’re disabled, poor, queer, a person of color, or all of the above… I truly am afraid for you.
So we need to plan for the worst, and make preparations for all the oppression and just plain disasters an unstable Trump and the best congress and legislators big business and ALEC can buy will produce. When the health care “system” collapses of it’s own high costs and the repeal of Obamacare, we need to be trained in basic health care and stocked with supplies. We need to prepare sanctuary for the people Trump will try to imprison, and our own communications networks for when Trump maybe takes over the MSM and takes down the internet. We need to learn again how to grow our own food, for when Trump deports the immigrant farm and food processing workers and crops rot. We need to build our own local economies that survive when Trump crashes the world economy. And that’s just the start…
It’s tempting to take to the streets and protest Trump, but that isn’t going to remove him from office… We need to prepare for for a full term, two term, or maybe longer struggle to evict Trump and his GOP and restore democracy. Let’s get to work!