Of all the competitive Congressional races in 2016, Zephyr Teachout and Denise Juneau’s were the ones I was rooting for most. Both of them lost. I’m going to look at the losses, starting with Zephyr’s.
A note on NY-19. It was redistricted for the 2012 election, and is composed of parts of what used to be NY-20 and NY-22. The district includes Columbia, Delaware, Greene, Otsego, Schoharie, Sullivan, and Ulster counties and parts of, Dutchess, Montgomery, Rensselaer and Broome counties.[15] The old NY-20 was Kristen Gillibrand’s district. Chris Gibson (R) has represented NY-19 for the four years since the redistricting, he is retiring.
The fact that NY-19 includes only parts of some counties is important, since we will look at those in detail below.
NY-19 was an important race with a progressive candidate running on the Democratic ticket. It ended up being one of the 10 most expensive races in the country. Polling was close throughout the campaign, up until the last week where Faso opened up a 6% lead over Zephyr. The final result on election night:
Candidate |
% of vote |
raw vote |
Zephyr Teachout (D) |
42.63% |
126,889 |
John Faso (R) |
51.69% |
153,846 |
Blank |
5.60% |
16,663 |
Void / Write-In |
0.08% |
260 |
total |
|
297,658 |
I’m going to evaluate the impact that the top of the ticket had on the Congressional race. Most people vote straight party ballots. To test how many voters did this in 2016, we can compare the share of vote received by Clinton and Zephyr for each county:
|
Zephyr |
Turnout '16 |
Zephyr |
Clinton |
Z - C |
COLUMBIA |
12,235 |
27,725 |
44.13% |
47.33% |
-3.20% |
DELAWARE |
6,172 |
18,072 |
34.15% |
32.23% |
1.92% |
GREENE |
6,466 |
20,102 |
32.17% |
32.77% |
-0.61% |
OTSEGO |
9,548 |
23,527 |
40.58% |
39.47% |
1.12% |
SCHOHARIE |
4,253 |
12,904 |
32.96% |
29.27% |
3.69% |
SULLIVAN |
11,393 |
27,243 |
41.82% |
40.15% |
1.67% |
ULSTER |
41,160 |
78,832 |
52.21% |
50.75% |
1.46% |
DUTCHESS (40%) |
22,566 |
51,759 |
43.60% |
46.45% |
-2.85% |
RENSSELAER (50%) |
11,456 |
31,344 |
36.55% |
44.71% |
-8.16% |
MONTGOMERY (28%) |
1,426 |
5,243 |
27.20% |
33.47% |
-6.27% |
BROOME (1%) |
214 |
907 |
23.59% |
44.27% |
-20.67% |
2016 election night results are from NY Board of Elections. Turnout figures are total ballots cast.
Column (Z — C) compares the portion of the vote they received. As you can see, Zephyr did better than Hillary Clinton. Zephyr had a 1-4% under-performance in two counties, and a 1-4% over-performance in the five other counties. It’s probably reasonable to assume that 95% of people voted straight party-line ballots.
Dutchess, Rensselaer, Montgomery and Broome are the exceptions. Zephyr underperformed Hillary’s portion of the vote by large margins in these counties. There’s an explanation for this. NY-19 includes only a portion of these counties, and it’s always the less Democratic part. In each case large towns/cities are left out of NY-19:
- The southern part of Dutchess county which includes Poughkeepsie-Montgomery is in NY-18.
- The south-western part of Rensselaer which includes Troy and some Albany suburbs is in NY-20.
- The eastern part of Montgomery county close to Schenectady including Amsterdam is in NY-20.
- NY-19 includes a tiny, rural part of eastern Broome county, Binghamton and it’s suburbs are in NY-22.
NY-20 was drawn to cover Albany and suburbs. NY-18 was drawn to cover some of the northern suburbs and exurbs of NYC. Sean Maloney (D) won re-election in NY-18, and Paul Tonko (D) won re-election in NY 20. Kim Myers (D) lost in NY-22 to Claudia Tenney (R). Tenney will succeed Richard Hanna (R). Incidentally, Hanna retired this year and was the first Republican congressman to say he would vote for Hillary Clinton.
Here is how the Democrats running for Congress performed in the residual (non NY-19) part of the four counties:
|
Dem Rep |
Turnout '16 |
Dem Rep |
Hillary |
Delta |
Rep |
District |
DUTCHESS (60%) |
36,438 |
70,682 |
51.55% |
46.45% |
5.10% |
Sean Maloney |
NY-18 |
RENSSELAER (50%) |
23,186 |
35,842 |
64.69% |
44.71% |
19.98% |
Paul Tonko |
NY-20 |
MONTGOMERY (72%) |
7,306 |
12,568 |
58.13% |
33.47% |
24.66% |
Paul Tonko |
NY-20 |
BROOME (99%) |
36,287 |
78,635 |
46.15% |
44.27% |
1.88% |
Kim Myers |
NY-22 |
In every case, the Democratic Congressional candidate outperformed (in their part of the county) Hillary Clinton’s overall figures in the county. That is because their sections of these counties are more urban/suburban/Democratic than those in NY-19. All said and done, NY-19 leans slightly Republican.
Another way to look at this is to see how the Democratic Congressional candidates did as a whole in each of these counties and compare them to Clinton’s result:
|
Non NY-19 Dem Rep |
Non NY-19 Turnout |
NY-19 |
NY-19 Turnout |
Clinton |
Clinton Turnout |
Dem Rep % |
Clinton % |
DUTCHESS |
36,438 |
70,682 |
22,566 |
51,759 |
56,874 |
122,441 |
48.19% |
46.45% |
RENSSELAER |
23,186 |
35,842 |
11,456 |
31,344 |
30,039 |
67,186 |
51.56% |
44.71% |
MONTGOMERY |
7,306 |
12,568 |
1,426 |
5,243 |
5,961 |
17,811 |
49.03% |
33.47% |
BROOME |
36,287 |
78,635 |
214 |
907 |
35,212 |
79,542 |
45.89% |
44.27% |
For the four counties split between two districts, Hillary Clinton under-performed down-ballot Democratic candidates in each county. It’s reasonable to conclude that Hillary Clinton out-performed Zephyr Teachout in only two counties, Columbia by 3% and Green by less than 1%. In all other counties, Zephyr Teachout outperformed Hillary.
Now, let’s look at how Obama did versus Clinton in these counties overall:
|
OBAMA |
HILLARY |
O - C |
OBAMA EN |
OBAMA |
HILLARY |
TURNOUT ‘12 |
TURNOUT ‘16 |
COLUMBIA |
52.06% |
47.33% |
4.72% |
54.8% |
15,241 |
13,123 |
29,278 |
27,725 |
DELAWARE |
41.84% |
32.23% |
9.60% |
44.2% |
7,881 |
5,825 |
18,838 |
18,072 |
GREENE |
40.24% |
32.77% |
7.46% |
43.3% |
8,485 |
6,588 |
21,088 |
20,102 |
OTSEGO |
47.51% |
39.47% |
8.04% |
50.0% |
11,530 |
9,285 |
24,270 |
23,527 |
SCHOHARIE |
38.37% |
29.27% |
9.10% |
40.7% |
5,119 |
3,777 |
13,341 |
12,904 |
SULLIVAN |
50.86% |
40.15% |
10.71% |
54.4% |
14,612 |
10,939 |
28,728 |
27,243 |
ULSTER |
55.50% |
50.75% |
4.75% |
59.8% |
44,480 |
40,010 |
80,140 |
78,832 |
DUTCHESS |
49.79% |
46.45% |
3.34% |
52.5% |
62,063 |
56,874 |
124,640 |
122,441 |
RENSSELAER |
51.59% |
44.71% |
6.87% |
54.8% |
35,373 |
30,039 |
68,572 |
67,186 |
MONTGOMERY |
44.05% |
33.47% |
10.59% |
47.0% |
8,106 |
5,961 |
18,400 |
17,811 |
BROOME |
48.61% |
44.27% |
4.34% |
50.9% |
39,971 |
35,212 |
82,227 |
79,542 |
TOTAL |
49.63% |
43.93% |
5.70% |
|
252,861 |
217,633 |
509,522 |
495,385 |
2016 election night results are from NY Board of Elections. 2012 election results are the certified figures which were released later, and include absentee ballots not tabulated on election night. 2016 certified results won’t be available till mid/late December, and though some counties have unofficial results with absentee ballots, many others don’t. Turnout figures are total ballots cast (including blank, write-in and invalid ballots).
Hillary Clinton underperformed Obama in every county, by 3-11% (column O — C). The under-performance is most stark in relatively rural counties like Montgomery, Delaware, Sullivan, Otsego, Schoharie and Greene. It’s less so in suburban/urban counties like Dutchess, Rensselaer, but it is very consistent underperformance.
You may be wondering what impact the uncounted 2016 absentee ballots will have on the race. Obama’s reported performance on election night in 2012 was even better than the final certified result (see column “Obama EN”). Absentee ballots in these counties skewed towards Republican. So it is likely that Hillary will under-perform Obama’s certified results even more than I’ve calculated above.
Of course there are other factors at work, chief among them an anti-establishment cycle and the general difficulty in winning a “third-term”. But we can’t run away from the fact that Hillary Clinton underperformed Barack Obama in counties a few miles from her home in Westchester. In fact, Hillary under-performed Obama in New York as a whole, gaining 58.8% of the vote compared to his 63.4% in 2012.
Now, let’s look at what would have happened if Obama had been at the top of the ticket. I’ve calculated an “Obama Boost” below, taking Obama’s margin over Clinton and calculating the number of additional votes this would have meant for Zephyr in 2016. The figures are appropriately scaled for the last four “partial” counties.
|
ZEPHYR |
TURNOUT '16 |
ZEPHYR |
CLINTON |
OBAMA |
OBAMA BOOST |
Z + BOOST |
COLUMBIA |
12,235 |
27,725 |
44.13% |
47.33% |
52.06% |
1,310 |
13,545 |
DELAWARE |
6,172 |
18,072 |
34.15% |
32.23% |
41.84% |
1,736 |
7,908 |
GREENE |
6,466 |
20,102 |
32.17% |
32.77% |
40.24% |
1,500 |
7,966 |
OTSEGO |
9,548 |
23,527 |
40.58% |
39.47% |
47.51% |
1,892 |
11,440 |
SCHOHARIE |
4,253 |
12,904 |
32.96% |
29.27% |
38.37% |
1,174 |
5,427 |
SULLIVAN |
11,393 |
27,243 |
41.82% |
40.15% |
50.86% |
2,918 |
14,311 |
ULSTER |
41,160 |
78,832 |
52.21% |
50.75% |
55.50% |
3,744 |
44,904 |
DUTCHESS (40%) |
22,566 |
51,759 |
43.60% |
46.45% |
49.79% |
1,731 |
24,297 |
RENSSELAER (50%) |
11,456 |
31,344 |
36.55% |
44.71% |
51.59% |
2,155 |
13,611 |
MONTGOMERY (28%) |
1,426 |
5,243 |
27.20% |
33.47% |
44.05% |
555 |
1,981 |
BROOME (1%) |
214 |
907 |
23.59% |
44.27% |
48.61% |
39 |
253 |
TOTALS |
126,889 |
297,658 |
|
|
|
18,754 |
145,643 |
The “Obama Boost” was worth 18,754 votes. When added to Zephyr’s total, it brings her vote total to 145,643 or 48.93% of the vote. Since 5.6% of the ballots in NY-19 were blank, it is likely that Zephyr Teachout would have won in NY-19, with Obama heading the ticket.
By the way, if I’d used Obama’s election night figures, the “Obama Boost” would have been worth 28,379 votes.
I also want to point out some incidental, non-numeric stuff.
- Zephyr had run against Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary back in 2014. She came in an unexpectedly strong second, with 33.5% of the vote. Hillary Clinton endorsed Andrew Cuomo back in 2014, despite the fact that Zephyr would have become the “historic” first female governor of New York if she’d won.
- Zephyr Teachout’s opposition to fracking played a role in her strong finish during the gubernatorial primary. Fracking was a big issue across the Southern Tier and is one of the issues she is most known for.
- In November 2015, Zephyr wrote an Op-Ed at Huffington Post about Hillary Clinton’s “corruption problems” (foundation, speaking fees, super pac and wealthy donors). She was attacked by Faso, Republican super PACs, and the NY Post for subsequently endorsing Clinton.
- Faso’s campaign also attacked Zephyr as a carpetbagger. Zephyr moved to Dutchess county from Brooklyn in March 2015, she’s originally from Vermont.
- During the 2016 primary, Zephyr endorsed Bernie early, in December.
- The Wikileaks dump had an e-mail conversation from the primaries where Neera Tanden wrote “I need Zephyr to not be a pain in the ass to Hillary”. Robby Mook claims to have spoken with Kirsten Gillibrand’s staff to see if they could keep Zephyr from being “too vocal”.
- Hillary Clinton and Zephyr Teachout were also nominated by the Working Families Party in New York. WFP received 1.82% of all votes cast for President in NY (including mine). WFP received 4.73% of all votes cast in NY-19.
I believe Zephyr should run in 2018. She did far better than Eldridge who ran in 2014 (yes, Dem turnout drops during mid-terms).
Zephyr also did almost as well as Schreibman in 2012, who ran with Obama heading the ticket. Though that race was actually closer than it appears, Gibson won by less than 3,000 votes, and there were over 21,000 blank ballots for Congress!
Please note, comparisons aren’t like for like since we’re comparing election night results in 2016 with the official certified results for 2012/2014. Zephyr might lose a point or two when all the absentee ballots come in.
|
Schreibman '12 |
Turnout '12 |
Schreibman '12 |
Eldridge '14 |
Turnout '14 |
Eldridge '14 |
Zephyr '16 |
Turnout '16 |
Zephyr '16 |
Columbia |
12,854 |
29,276 |
43.91% |
7,248 |
21,303 |
34.02% |
12,235 |
27,725 |
44.13% |
Delaware |
7,068 |
18,838 |
37.52% |
3,385 |
13,052 |
25.93% |
6,172 |
18,072 |
34.15% |
Greene |
7,058 |
21,088 |
33.47% |
3,733 |
15,946 |
23.41% |
6,466 |
20,102 |
32.17% |
Otsego |
10,820 |
24,270 |
44.58% |
5,293 |
16,462 |
32.15% |
9,548 |
23,527 |
40.58% |
Schoharie |
4,224 |
13,341 |
31.66% |
2,125 |
10,043 |
21.16% |
4,253 |
12,904 |
32.96% |
Sullivan |
13,418 |
28,728 |
46.71% |
6,771 |
18,083 |
37.44% |
11,393 |
27,243 |
41.82% |
Ulster |
43,843 |
80,132 |
54.71% |
24,395 |
53,887 |
45.27% |
41,160 |
78,832 |
52.21% |
Broome (1%) |
270 |
959 |
28.15% |
119 |
662 |
17.98% |
214 |
907 |
23.59% |
Dutchess (40%) |
22,200 |
52,713 |
42.11% |
12,713 |
33,702 |
37.72% |
22,566 |
51,759 |
43.60% |
Montgomery (28%) |
1,525 |
5,316 |
28.69% |
828 |
3,924 |
21.10% |
1,426 |
5,243 |
27.20% |
Rensselaer (50%) |
11,015 |
31,635 |
34.82% |
5,860 |
23,287 |
25.16% |
11,456 |
31,344 |
36.55% |
Total |
134,295 |
306,296 |
43.84% |
72,470 |
210,351 |
34.45% |
126,889 |
297,658 |
42.63% |
PS. I wrote this diary because I saw a lot of people slamming progressive candidate’s chances by pointing to Zephyr Teachout’s loss. This one’s for y’all.
You may now go back to debating the latest Trump tweets.
Tuesday, Nov 29, 2016 · 7:55:54 PM +00:00
·
subir
I changed the title upon further consideration. It was originally “Would Zephyr Teachout have won NY-19 with Obama at the top of the ticket?” which was one of the interesting conclusions I was led to, but it was only one of them and got a lot of hackles up.