It's hard not to feel a pit in your stomach at the news that Donald Trump has picked GOP Rep. Tom Price to run the Department of Health and Human Services: Price is the fiercest enemy of Obamacare in Congress, and as Sarah Kliff observes, his appointment signals that Trump is "dead serious about dismantling" the Affordable Care Act. So horrific is the news—millions will lose their health insurance, including, Paul Krugman estimates, some 5.5 million Trump voters—that we can't even bring ourselves to say there's any kind of silver lining here. But assuming Price's nomination goes through, there will be special election, and it could be notable.
That's because the man promoting Price proved to be extraordinarily unpopular in the congressman's own district. Mitt Romney won Georgia's 6th, in suburban Atlanta, by a dominant 61-37 margin, making it the kind of dark red seat Democrats would typically have no shot at. But the 6th is also one of the best-educated and wealthiest districts in the country: 60 percent of residents have bachelor's degrees, the sixth-highest in the nation, and the median household income is almost $84,000, the 33rd best.
As a result, the district turned sharply against Trump, giving him just a 48-47 win over Hillary Clinton—a 23-point collapse. And presidential results like that, at least in the pre-Trump era, typically signify a swingy district that could go either way downballot.
But is that what we've got here? It's hard to say. Price easily won re-election (albeit against a Some Dude) by a 62-38 margin, suggesting that he didn't face much of an undertow due to Trump—and that was with Trump actually on the ballot. In a special election, disgusted Republican voters might just breathe a sigh of relief and go right back to their old habits without a second thought.
However, that 62 percent showing was also the weakest of Price's career, and it came against an opponent who literally raised zero dollars. Republicans could very well wind up with a candidate identified closely with Trump, and if Democrats can put forward someone serious, they could frame the election as a referendum on the president. Of course, these are big "ifs," and Team Blue doesn't have much of a bench here, while Republicans do.
But the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein cites unnamed "Democrats" who "vow to field a promising recruit," and he mentions state Reps. Scott Holcomb and Taylor Bennett as possibilities. (Bennett just lost re-election by a narrow 51-49 margin.) Bluestein also names no fewer than a dozen potential GOP candidates, including Price's wife, state Rep. Betty Price, and former Secretary of State Karen Handel. So far, though, the only one to publicly declare any interest is immigration attorney Charles Kuck.
The election won't be for a while, though. Price would probably not resign from the House until he's confirmed by the Senate, which won't happen until January at the earlier. At that point, Gov. Nathan Deal would call a special election, which wouldn't take place for at least another 30 days after the seat becomes vacant. Note that all candidates from all parties will run together on a single ballot, with the top-two vote-getters advancing to a runoff if no one clears 50 percent in the first round.
In the meantime, Democrats shouldn't get their hopes up: Flipping this seat will still be very difficult, regardless of what happened here during the presidential election. And Trump may yet benefit from a traditional "honeymoon" period after he's sworn in, which could ameliorate his electoral toxicity. But this is still a test worth watching.