In 2018, Democrats will be defending 25 seats, 10 of which are in states won by Trump. However, some Democrats have established a personal brand that means we aren’t immediately doomed. Head below the fold to see more.
Arizona (Lean Republican): Republican Senator Jeff Flake will likely face two competitive races in 2018, a primary and a general election. Already, State Senator Kelli Ward has announced a challenge to Flake, and more may follow suit. The Democrats are looking to recruit Blue Dog Representative Kyrsten Sinema to challenge Flake. Sinema has declined to run against Governor Doug Ducey in the Gubernatorial election, perhaps a signal that she is moving towards a senate run. No matter what the candidates, expect a competitive race.
California (Safe Democratic): Four-term Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein has always won re-election with ease, and shouldn’t expect anything different this time. If Feinstein, who will be 85 in 2018, retires, this seat will almost definitely stay in Democratic hands.
Connecticut (Safe Democratic): At only age 43, Senator Chris Murphy is just about finished with his first (and definitely not last) term as Senator.
Delaware (Safe Democratic): One of the possible retirements this cycle, two-term Senator Tom Carper is almost assured victory in 2018, and if he retires, this seat will most likely stay in Democratic hands.
Florida (Lean Democratic): Even at the ripe age of 74, Bill Nelson isn’t done running yet. He has confirmed that he’s running and should have no problems in the primary. On the Republican side, Termed-out Governor Rick Scott has been considering a run, but most of the Great Mentioner’s attention has been focused on the open Governor’s race. However, Bill Nelson has a clear but modest lead going into the race as the most popular of Florida’s statewide politicians.
Hawaii (Safe Democratic): Next.
Indiana (Tossup): Joe Donnelly’s 2012 victory was mostly a result of Richard Mourdock's “gift from God” comments, so he should expect a tough race in 2018. Donnelly has kept a moderate voting record and a low profile in the Senate, helping his re-election chances in Indiana, where Trump won by 19 points. Representatives Marlin Stutzman, Luke Messer, and Susan Brooks have been mentioned as possible candidates, and Messer has already signaled that he plans on running. There probably will be a competitive Republican primary to help Donnelly, but no matter what, this race will be a nail-biter.
Maine (Likely Democratic/Independent): Independent Senator Angus King has maintained a moderate to liberal voting record and he seems likely to stay in the Democratic caucus for the foreseeable future. Termed-out Governor and Mini-Trump Paul LePage has said he plans on challenging King, but his approval rating is hanging out in the high 30s and he has achieved national infamy for his many notable bigoted remarks and actions will hurt his potential challenge. However, most of the attention in Maine will likely be focused on the open governorship, but this race could become competitive considering Clinton won Maine by a mere 3 percent and the erratic nature of Maine’s politics.
Maryland (Safe Democratic): Senator Ben Cardin shouldn’t expect much of a race considering Chris Van Hollen won more than 60% of the vote this November, and Maryland isn’t notorious for its close Senate races.
Massachusetts (Safe Democratic): Elizabeth Warren’s Senate race is nowhere near competitive, and most of the attention of Massachusetts's politics is focused on the Republican Governor Charlie Baker's re-election.
Michigan (Lean Democratic): Debbie Stabenow’s Senate race, like many others, is overshadowed by a competitive gubernatorial race. Though Trump barely won Michigan, Stabenow’s approval rating is an adequate 48/34. But, most Republicans will probably be focused on holding the governorship, so Stabenow could get a free pass this year.
Minnesota (Safe Democratic/DFL): Though Clinton barely won Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar is in no danger of losing re-election. Her approval rating is in the 60s, just like the percentage of the vote she’s gotten in both her elections. Again, most Republicans will be focusing their attention on the open governorship. However, so is Klobuchar, who is reportedly mulling over a bid for the governor’s mansion. If she were to run for governor, it could create a very competitive race, but with Klobuchar running for her seat, Republicans know better than to think about running for Senate.
Mississippi (Safe Republican): Senator Roger Wicker should have an easy ride to re-election in ruby red Mississippi.
Missouri (Tossup/Tilt Republican): Of the 33 senators up for re-election this year, two-term Senator Claire McCaskill is likely the most vulnerable. McCaskill has maintained a much more liberal voting record than her fellow red-state Democrats and enthusiastically stumped nationally for Clinton in a conservative state that Trump won by 19 percent. Representatives Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler, and Billy Long are being mentioned as potential candidates, though none have signaled any intention so far. McCaskill’s approval ratings have not been stellar, and she starts the race off as a very, very slight underdog. However, Jason Kander nearly won the Senate race even as Trump was dominating Clinton in Missouri, so Democrats shouldn’t yet give up on McCaskill.
Montana (Tossup/Tilt Democratic): Jon Tester, who has won both of his elections with pluralities, is very high on the GOP’s list of targets this cycle. Trump beat Clinton by more than 25 percent in Montana, and Denise Juneau badly lost to Representative Ryan Zinke in the US House race. However, Montana re-elected Steve Bullock as governor, breathing hope into Tester’s campaign. Tester, like many of his red-state colleagues, has maintained a moderate voting record and held a rather low profile in the Senate. Representative Ryan Zinke has emerged as the most likely challenger but hasn’t clearly signaled any of his intentions. Tester, after 10 years in Washington, is clearly still Montanan through and through with his $8 haircuts and his farmer’s diet. Handicapping this race is difficult, but Tester starts off as the slight favorite.
Nebraska (Safe Republican): The Republican’s only pickup of 2012 will stay in Republican hands this cycle and for all of the foreseeable future.
Nevada (Tossup/Tilt Republican): Republican Senator Dean Heller is one of only two vulnerable GOP senators this cycle, so he will definitely face a hard fight to retain his seat if he even runs. Heller has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the open governorship and has done nothing to dispell the rumors, so this could become one of the few open seats this cycle. However, because of a lack of potential candidates on the Democratic side (most are focused on the governorship), this race starts off with Heller as the slight favorite, but that could very quickly change.
New Jersey (Likely Democratic): Though Senator Bob Menendez has been indicted on corruption charges, he has made it clear that he isn’t ready to quit just yet. No Democrats have talked about challenging Menendez, and most have publicly supported him. This isn’t a top tier Republican target, but a well-funded challenger could quickly turn this race competitive.
New Mexico (Safe Democratic): Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich has posted good approval ratings, and no Republicans have talked about challenging Heinrich, for most have been focused on the open governorship.
New York (Safe Democratic): Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is in no danger of losing re-election considering her high approval ratings and her elephant crushing 72% win in 2012.
North Dakota (Tossup): Senator Heidi Heitkamp very narrowly won her first term in 2012 and should expect another close race this year. Trump won North Dakota by nearly 36 points, carrying all but two counties. However, Heitkamp has a very moderate voting record and has sided with Republicans on some major issues such as the Keystone XL pipeline and gun control. The problem is, Heitkamp is in the running for both the Secretaries of Agriculture and Energy in Trump’s cabinet. If she were to take a job with Trump, this would become an almost assured Republican pickup in a special election. On the Heitkamp’s likely challenger will be North Dakota’s sole Representative, Kevin Cramer, who has already met with Mitch McConnel to discuss a possible senate race. The Democrat’s only hope to hold this seat is most likely Heitkamp, and even with her, this race will be a nail-biter.
Ohio (Tossup): Populist Senator Sherrod Brown is one of the most liberal members of the Senate, but his populist policies are popular in Ohio. Brown fits squarely in the Sanders/Warren wing of the party and has been a vocal opponent of the TPP. However, Ohio has been trending solidly Republican in the past few years, and Democrats have been finding it harder and harder to compete here. Brown’s approval ratings haven’t been stellar, but they are high enough to keep him in the running. Already, State Treasurer and ‘12 nominee Josh Mandel has announced a challenge to Brown, but he may face a competitive primary against Representative Pat Tiberi, who seems unfazed by Mandel’s announcement. This race will be highly competitive and closely watched up until Election Day.
Pennsylvania (Lean Democratic): One of the 10 Democratic senators in states that Trump won, Bob Casey Jr. will likely face a tough race for re-election. Casey has clearly stated that he will be running again. On the Republican side, Congressman Pat Meehan has been reportedly considering a bid, but most Keystone State Republicans have been eyeing a challenge to Governor Tom Wolf instead. Casey’s approval rating is sitting at a 43/33 according to a May 2015 PPP poll, which isn’t terrible but isn’t great either. However, unless any major changes or viable challengers emerge, Casey is favored to win re-election.
Rhode Island (Safe Democratic): Jack Reed shouldn’t face any major problems in winning a third term in the Senate.
Tennessee (Safe Republican): Two-term Senator Bob Corker is the clear favorite to win re-election.
Texas (Safe Republican): As much as I hate to say it, Ted Cruz is likely to win re-election. However, a popular Democrat like Secretary of HUD Julian Castro or Congressman Beto O’Rourke could make this race competitive, but until any intentions of running are announced, it stays firmly in the Republican column.
Utah (Safe Republican): Will he? Won’t he? SEVEN-term Senator Orrin Hatch had signaled that this term would be his last, but recently it has been seeming that he’s likely to run for an eighth term. Even if he retires, it would take an amazing Democratic candidate (probably ex-Congressman Jim Matheson) to make this race competitive.
Vermont (Safe Democratic/Independent): Bernie Sanders should have no problem winning a third term, and if he retires, this seat will stay in Democratic hands.
Virginia (Likely Democratic): Senator Tim Kaine has finished his term as America’s stepfather and will likely return to the Senate in 2019. His approval ratings are great, he’s very popular in Virginia, and his 2016 VP loss hasn’t seemed to tarnish his reputation. No Republicans have talked about a bid against Kaine in blue-trending Virginia, and he should win re-election without too much trouble.
Washington (Safe Democratic): Though in some years, Washington has been highly competitive, Senator Maria Cantwell should have no problem winning a fourth term in the Senate.
West Virginia (Lean Democratic): Democratic Senator Joe Manchin should be the most vulnerable senator in 2018 (Trump won West Virginia by 42 points), but he’s starting out as the slight favorite to win in 2018. Manchin is more conservative than liberal according to the National Journal’s vote rankings and has an approval rating in the high 50s. Also, Manchin, along with many Trump-state Democrats, nearly shut down the government last night to protect coal miners’ health benefits, which will go down very well in West Virginia. A recent poll by Harper Polling put Manchin up by double digits against some potential Republican challengers, but it’s still very early. However, Trump is reportedly considering Manchin for some cabinet posts. Republicans would most likely win a special election if Manchin were to be in Trump’s cabinet, but if Manchin runs, he starts out as the clear favorite.
Wisconsin (Tossup/Tilt Democratic) After one of the biggest shockers of 2016, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin finds herself in Trump territory starting out her re-election bid. Her approval rating is sitting at 38/32 according to a November 2016 Marquette University poll, not at all where it needs to be. However, Baldwin has shown she can win a tough race, beating ex-Governor and ex-HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson in 2012. In 2012, Baldwin dominated the middle-class vote, something needed to win in Wisconsin. On the Republican side, Rich Guy Eric Hovde and Congressman Sean Duffy have emerged as the main candidates for the Republican nomination. No matter which Republican is nominated, Baldwin will face a tough race for re-election, but she starts out as the narrow favorite.
Wyoming (Safe Republican): Senator John Barrasso is in no danger at all of losing re-election, as Wyoming would vote for Satan if he had a shiny red R next to his name on the ballot.
(Note: This is my first diary and I hope you like it! Feel free to comment your thoughts, comments, corrections, concerns, etc.)
Sunday, Dec 11, 2016 · 3:42:46 AM +00:00
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IDMN
I’m currently working on a gubernatorial version of this. Also, thank you so much for voting in the poll, commenting, recommending, and reading. I never thought that this may people would respond to this and it really made my day, week, and year to see. Thanks!