Concerning the last diary entry, I saw this comment but comments are now closed
The slosh model would seem to ignore the effects of variability of wind forcing. I would be really surprised if ENSO is as predictable as tides.
Yet what causes wind variability? The same presentation talks about the QBO, which is driven by lunisolar effects in the same way as ENSO. It can’t be turtles all the way down — eventually something external has to cause the periodic effects we see.
contextearth.com/…