Michigan specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 130 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The state-wide Michigan State Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella. Michigan perhaps has been on national focus in the past due to its automotive manufacturing and related industries. Recently however national spotlight has been due to poisoned drinking water crisis in Flint. http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/21/1485561/-Living-in-Flint-as-the-battle-over-lead-pipes-continues-and-how-you-can-help
Basic Data: Michigan has 130 delegates available. (Definitely a delegate rich state). There are 14 Congressional Districts(CD). So including state-wide at-large and PLEO allocations, there are 16 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 5 from CD2 CD3 CD4 CD 6 CD7 CD8 CD10 ::: 6 from CD1 CD9 CD11::: 7 from CD5 CD12 ::: 9 from CD13 CD14. State-wide allocations are 17 PLEOs and 28 at-large delegates. With such a large number of statewide delegates this has a potential to give a candidate a bigger boost. Combining that with 12 out of 14 districts having odd number of delegates, even a small boost would give a candidate definitive delegate advantage.
Primary General Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 8th March 2016. Michigan operates a sort of an open primary. Participation is open to all. Just remember to request the Democratic Party ballot. Neither Party membership nor affiliation/registration is needed. Same day voter registration is not available. Voters must have been registered by 8th Feb for primary voting. If you have missed primary voting deadline then there is still time to register for general election. Uncommitted is by default an option available as is write-ins.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
Delegates Acquired
Out of Available
|
5 del
CD2 CD3 CD4
CD6 CD7 CD8
CD10
|
6 del
CD1 CD9
CD11
|
7 del
CD5 CD12
|
9 del
CD13 CD14
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
30 |
25 |
21.5 |
16.7 |
3 del |
50 |
41.7 |
35.8 |
27.8 |
4 del |
70 |
58.4 |
50 |
38.9 |
5 del |
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
50 |
6 del |
|
85 |
78.6 |
61.2 |
7 del |
|
|
85 |
72.3 |
8 del |
|
|
|
83.4 |
For 5 Delegates at CD2 CD3 CD4 CD 6 CD7 CD8 CD10: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is nicely balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split is a bit too demanding. These seven districts become very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. Successfully breaking these districts will give a 7 delegate advantage straight away. These 5 delegate awarding districts will be fought over hard (or perhaps I mean, should be fought over hard).
For 6 Delegates at CD1 CD9 CD11: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split.
For 7 Delegates at CD5 CD12: Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. On a side note, the poisoned city of Flint is in CD5.
For 9 Delegates at CD13 CD14: First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 16.7%, third at 27.8% and fourth at 38.9%. Each delegate needs roughly 11% shift in support. The tipping point is again at 50% for the advantageous break with 5-4 split. Additional delegates acquired at 61.2% and 72.3%. For a campaign a smaller movement in these districts could still trigger an extra delegate. Voter participation in these districts will also skew state-wide results slightly due to the higher Democratic Party leaning population here (Detroit and suburbia). Any extra effort here will contribute disproportionately acquiring delegates at CD as well as state-wide results. On a side note both of these districts have less than 40% white population.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 28 At-Large delegates and 17 pledged PLEO delegates. While it is the same vote share, the odd number of PLEO allocations would reward state-wide winner with overall at least one delegate advantages. The large numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a smaller movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages.
The table below shows some of the interesting PLEO specific triggers points. The at large delegates listed here are corresponding numbers at PLEO percentages. (Not all triggers are listed). A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
Vote Share% |
15 |
20.6 |
32.4 |
38.3 |
44.5 |
50 |
55.9 |
61.8 |
67.7 |
State-wide Delegates for Vot% Share - PLEOs
PLEOs (17) |
3 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
Corresponding
At-Large Del(28)
|
4 |
6 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
For 17 Pledged PLEOs: Once again due to large number of delegates in this category, roughly 5.9% votes translate to 1 delegate. At the viability 15% vote share 3 Delegates are acquired. fourth one at 20.6%. Each subsequent delegate from then on at 5.9% increments. 8 delegates between 44.5% and 50%, with the trigger at 50% awarding a delegate advantage split of (9-8). The corresponding number of At-Large delegates are the number that would be awarded at that specific PLEO triggers. So with just crossing 50%, we would end up with 9 delegates in PLEO and 14 in At-Large categories.
For 28 Delegates State-wide (at-large): (See table below.) Because of a high number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Results should reflect the similar percentages. The some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 3.6% votes translates to 1 delegate. crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 4 delegates. Fifth delegate is cheap at 16.1%. Subsequently every 3.6% gives an extra delegate. Between 48.3%-51.8% delegates split even (14-14). A small movement however is sufficient to reward the state-wide winner with additional advantages. . Crossing 51.8% results in (15-13) split. Only some interesting triggers for at-large delegates are listed. Corresponding PLEOs at that level are also listed for comparison.
Vote Share % |
16.1 |
41.1 |
44.7 |
48.3 |
51.8 |
55.4 |
59 |
62.5 |
State-wide Delegates Triggers For Vote Share - At-Large Delegates
At-Large Del(28) |
5 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
Corresponding
PLEOs (17)
|
3 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
Next bit is my personal opinion: Due to large number of odd number of delegates, the advantages will be accumulated and lost fast. The advantageous breaks will be spread out between both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton depending on the specific congressional District. In the 5 delegates CD2 CD4 CD6 CD8 I expect Bernie Sanders to do well enough to cross 50% and garner 1 delegate advantage each. Hillary Clinton to counter at CD3 CD7 and CD10. In the 6 delegate districts of CD1 CD9 CD11, the delegates will be split (3-3). In the 7 delegates districts CD5 CD12 I expect Clinton to have the advantage breaks of (4-3). In the 9 delegate districts CD13 CD14 I expect Clinton to soundly reach (6-3) delegate split. With the PLEOs (10-7) and At-Large Delegates (17-11). All combined (Clinton 73- Sanders 57)
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Today’s shout outs to Featheredsprite and chicagobama and leeleedee and liberal nos and shantysue and blw and Andrew F Cockburn and Minnesota Mike