The last couple weeks have seen a significant group of new Democratic candidates announce their runs for U.S. House seats in potential swing district, increasing the chance that Democrats will be able to take the House in a year when Republicans are likely to be severely damaged by their disastrous presidential nomination process.
The latest entrant is state Senator Terri Bonoff (D-Minnetonka) in Minnesota, who announced she’d challenge Erik Paulsen in Minnesota’s third district today. Bonoff has experience winning in a swing district — her senate district voted narrowly for President Obama in 2012, with him only winning 51-47%. The third congressional district will be an even greater challenge. While President Obama won it by a similar margin in 2008, in 2012 he carried it only 49.6-48.8%. Taking down Paulsen is also a daunting challenge. He won his initial election in 2008 by eight points, and has won by double digits since then.
The Third Congressional District spans parts of the Twin Cities’ northern and western suburbs, including Brooklyn Park, Minnetonka, Eden Prairie and even Bloomington — including the Mall of America.
Voters there have solidly supported Paulsen since 2008, but have also voted to elect President Obama twice and Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Democrats consider the Third District a swing district — particularly in a year where Republicans could be hurt by Donald Trump’s name at the top of the ticket this November.
A former Democratic state Senator, Gail Schwartz, announced she’d challenge Rep. Scott Tipton in Colorado’s third congressional district. Colorado’s third is more Republican, as President Obama lost the district by about 1.5 points in 2008 and 6 in 2012, but Democrat John Salazar did win and hold the Pueblo and Grand Junction-based district from 2004 until 2010.
There are about 146,000 registered Republicans in the district, compared with about 124,000 Democrats, according to statistics released April 1 by the Colorado secretary of state. About 134,000 voters are unaffiliated.
Tipton has money in the bank, too, though not an overwhelming amount. According to his latest fundraising report to the FEC, his campaign cash on hand is about $586,000.
Tipton has won easily since being elected in 2010, but Democrats hope strong turnout from Hispanic/Latino voters in the southern part of the district thanks to being alienated by Donald Trump could make this district flip.
In Washington’s eighth congressional district businesswoman Alida Skold has filed to run against Republican incumbent Dave Reichert. Another swingy district, President Obama won the eighth twice, 51.5-46.8% in 2008 and 49.7-48.1% in 2012. Based in the Seattle suburbs, it is likely to be a place where either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz would suffer a horrid performance, and could drag Reichert down with them.
Even further northwest, in Alaska, former Alaska Public Media CEO Steve Lindbeck is challenging longtime Republican incumbent Don Young.
Young’s most recent opponent, newly elected Anchorage Assemblyman Forrest Dunbar, was relatively unknown to most Alaskans going into the 2014 election. Yet, he managed to pull 41 percent of the vote, compared to Young’s 51 percent. Some saw this as a sign that maybe Alaska was ready for change, including Lindbeck.
“Nobody’s unbeatable, and after 43 years, those numbers have to make him a little concerned.”
Lindbeck is likely a familiar name to many Alaskans. Prior to managing Alaska Public Media, he served as the vice chancellor for advancement at the University of Alaska Anchorage and executive director of the Alaska Humanities Forum. He’s also worked as an editor for multiple news agencies, including the Anchorage Daily News and the defunct Anchorage Times.
Alaska leans Republican, no doubt, but President Obama’s losing margin shrank from nearly 22 points to just 14 points from 2008 to 2012, culminating in the best Democratic performance in Alaska in decades in a presidential race, and Democratic (and Democratic-supported Independent) candidates performed well in statewide races in 2014. Don Young held on in the Democratic wave of 2008, but after recent gaffes his popularity with the electorate has declined. Democrats hope with another wave potentially building, this will be the year.
Finally, in northern Wisconsin Democrats have new recruits in both the 7th and 8th districts. Though the 7th is more rural and the 8th is based in Green Bay and other medium sized cities, both districts performed similarly in 2008 and 2012, with President Obama winning both by about 7-8 points in 2008 and losing both by 3-4 points in 2012. The 7th was socially moderate but economically progressive Democrat David Obey’s district for a long time, while in 2006 the 8th, though generally Republican, flipped to Democrat Steve Kagen until 2010. Redistricting made these districts more challenging, but these are still the kind of districts that Democrats need to win back the house. With Donald Trump or Ted Cruz weighing them down, this could be the year.
The 8th district is open with Republican Reid Ribble declining to run again, setting up Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, the candidate Democrats desperately wanted to get in this race, with the perfect opportunity. Last week Nelson entered the race, instantly putting this one on the board. This week two Democrats also announced for the 7th district, to challenge Republican incumbent and former Real Worlder Sean Duffy. Phil Salamone is a former union representative.
Salamone is the son of a seamstress and truck driver who worked for decades as a labor representative negotiating union contracts. The Wausau Democrat said he’s running because he'd like to see more help for workers.
"I'd like to see (the) minimum wage raised," he said. "I'd like to see some improvements to the (Affordable Care Act), which it could use."
Salamone said the ACA is a step in the right direction, but he believes a single-payer system makes the most sense.
Also Marathon County Supervisor Joel Lewis announced he’d challenge Duffy. Marathon County is one of the larger counties in the district, but Lewis’ district is rather small. Still, having an elected official who presumably has campaign experience could be a good thing in this race. I assume this is the same Joel Lewis who protested at Duffy’s office in 2012, saying
"I'm here today and I've been coming to Duffy since he got elected," said protester Joel Lewis. "I'm very concerned about the disparity of wealth in our country and I think a lot of the GOP's policies have led to that over time."
Democrats now have dozens of legitimate challengers in potentially winnable Republican districts, while very few Democrats appear vulnerable this year. If we are going to win this gerrymandered house back before redistricting might give us a fairer shot, this will be the year.