Hillary is winning New York by 15%.
The final delegate margin might reach 50 (due to the way she has over performed in many CDs).
How did she do it? What was her voting coalition?
The Exit Polls tell the tale:
GENDER
Sex |
Male 41% of voters
|
48%
|
52%
|
Female 59% of voters
|
61 |
39
|
Hillary won female voters by a whopping 61% to 39%, a 22% margin.
Bernie won Male voters by 4%. Women voters made up 59% of the total electorate.
AGE
Hillary Bernie
Age |
18-29 17% of voters
|
33 |
67 |
30-44 24% of voters
|
51 |
49 |
45-64 39% of voters
|
61 |
39 |
65 + 20% of voters
|
72 |
28 |
Ok, so Bernie won Millenials impressively, 67% to 33%. But they only made up 17% of the total vote. Hillary won all other age groups. The 65+ age group made up more people, and Hillary blew Bernie away with them 72% to 28%. She also had an impressive showing with the age group from 45 to 64 years of age, 61% to 39%.
RACE
Hillary Bernie
Race and ethnicity |
White 60% of voters
|
49 |
51 |
Black 22% of voters
|
75 |
25 |
Hispanic/Lat. 14% of voters
|
63 |
37 |
Asian 2% of voters
|
— |
— |
Other 3% of voters
|
— |
—
|
Hillary won 75% of the African-American vote, and they came out for her. They made up 22% of the total voters, 6% higher than was the case in 2008. Bernie got 25% of African-Americans to vote for him.
Hillary won 63% of the Hispanic/Latino/Latina vote, Bernie got 37%. New York Hispanics very much felt the Hillary.
White voters were split evenly.
INCOME
Hillary Bernie
|
Under $30,000 18% of voters
|
59 |
41 |
$30,000-$49,999 21% of voters
|
55 |
45 |
$50,000-$99,999 31% of voters
|
53 |
47 |
$100,000-$199,999 23% of voters
|
53 |
47 |
|
|
|
Hillary beat Bernie in all income groups. But her best showing was with the most economically disadvantaged. She won people making under $30,000 by almost 20% to the tune of 59% to 41%. Hillary also did pretty well in the income group $30,000 to $49,999, where she won that group by 10%. It evened out a lot more in the higher income brackets.
PARTY AFFILIATION
Hillary Bernie
Party affiliation |
Democrat 83% of voters
|
61 |
39 |
Republican 3% of voters
|
— |
— |
Independent or else 14% of voters
|
26 |
74
|
Hillary won registered and self-described Democrats by 22%, 61% to 39%, mirroring how she has performed among registered Democrats pretty much around the country. Bernie did well with Independents or “else”, which means Indies, Working Family Party and non-affiliated voters who changed to the Democratic Party in time to vote in this primary. These voters made up 14% of all voters, Bernie won big with them, but they were not numerous enough to make a meaningful difference in this race.
Exit polling shows other interesting dynamics and results, HERE. But these are the most important findings of the NY race, IMO.
CONCLUSION
The major gender gap Hillary benefits from is very distinct and helped Hillary win this race and should make Hillary the winner in many upcoming contests. Women generally make up more of Democratic electorates, so holding a big edge with women while keeping it relative close with men makes for a big advantage.
Minority voters came out for Hillary in a big way, both AAs and Hispanics. That should translate well to next week’s contests in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Bernie’s best state out of those 5 is probably Rhode Island, but in the other 4 states minorities are important in varying ways, and these New York results are likely to transfer well over into at least 4 of those 5 states.
As this was a closed primary, Democrats overwhelmingly had the upper hand over “others”. Given that Hillary had a 22% with registered Democrats that turned into a big win for her. Since 4 of the 5 states voting next week are “Closed Primaries”, that will likely continue Hillary on a winning path in all 4 contests, with only “Semi-open” Rhode Island and its 24 delegates as the unknown here.